A Happy New Year to all our bloggers and contributors to our regular debates. It looks like being a good year, with lots to look forward to in the season ahead. Last year I made some predictions about what might happen in 2009. Some of them came true – not many, I agree – but some were on the ball. So it’s time now to gaze into the Motor Sport crystal ball and ruminate on a few things that just may come to pass this season.
So, here goes:
1. Hamilton and Alonso will have at least one collision.
2. Valentino Rossi will win the MotoGP championship.
3. Michael Schumacher will win a race.
4. Audi will win at Le Mans.
5. Bernie Ecclestone will start to prepare for his retirement.
6. The Renault Formula 1 team will be a shadow of its former self.
7. Kimi Räikkönen will return to F1 in 2011 with Red Bull.
8. Sebastian Vettel will move to Mercedes-Benz.
9. Lotus F1 will be the best of the new GP teams.
10. Somebody will run out of fuel before the end of a Grand Prix.
Testing for the new F1 season gets underway in less than a month’s time. Then we will start to see how much of the above is daft, and how much is looking possible. Meanwhile welcome back to a new year of debates, and keep your comments coming.
Interesting observations, Rob. What about Button and Hamilton colliding with each other at least once in the season? No predictions on Kimi winning a rally :-)? How many drivers will ‘Grandad’ Schumi take off, chop in front of or generally park in a precarious position while the other drivers are on a hot lap :-(?
Keep up the comments – I really enjoy them.
All the best for 2010, and may we finally have some racing again!
Jan
I think Schumacher will want to come across as a ‘new man’ and that he will try to behave as the elder statesman, the born-again hero and the new, affable, approachable Schumacher. This is his last ‘hurrah’ and I sense he will not want to leave behind a bad image for the second time.
Of course, a little wheel-banging may get in the way of this plan.
Not sure Raikkonen will win a rally so soon. He is up against some very experienced people.
It is all unpredictable, an extremely open season. Just as it should be. He who finally conquers will have to race, and race hard.
RW
Well, interesting predictions :-)
I’d like to see most of them come true. Especially number 7. Numbers 1 thru 3 will definitely happen imo too!
Rgds Gilraen
Kimi back at Red Bull in 2011 would be great… as long as Newey is still there
For Schumacher to decide to come across as a new man he would have to acknowledge, if only to himself, that he had been something less than virtuous in his earlier career. Do you expect that sort of prise de conscience to have become part of his psychological makeup in his dotage?
And I would argue that elder statesmen need to be wise, interesting, self deprecating, and to know their history, all departments in which Schumacher is signally wanting. In other words, mere age and a freakish talent do not an elder statesman make.
Me, I think it will be interesting to find out how he compares to the younger generation, but if he finds himself in a position to win the Championship, or even one GP, and he comes under pressure from another driver, I suspect that driver had better beware. Leopards and spots, don’t you know.
Happy New Year
I’d go one better Rob and predict that every driver will have one or more collisions this coming season! I agree that at the end of Winter testing it will be much easier to predict likely winners when we know which designs handle the new tire and fuel load specs, but we do have some sensational driver pairing to watch this year, in particular Alonso/Massa and Hamilton/Button. How Rosberg handles the Brawn/Schumacker axis will be fascinating and likely heartbreaking at the same time. Rubens must feel he dodged a bullet by leaving Brawn!
On the subject of MotGP, Mr. Burgess has suggested that that Auzzie Casey Stoner is the threat for the coming year and I agree. Stoner is smarter now and the fire’s in his belly, in this last year for the 800s Ducati will give Stoner the mount to take the championship.
Looking at your predictions Rob, I think at least half will turn out correct – although I cannot see Bernie giving up just yet….
Your point number 10 is interesting – the last time refuelling was banned was at the end of 1983 and many cars struggled with fuel consumption in the following seasons – admittedly in the turbo era.
One would think that with the engine management that comes with the F1 cars nowadays, it shouldn’t happen – but I guess that the refuelling era has not allowed for an clear indication of which engines are more / less efficient on fuel consumption. Perhaps the new teams will be more impacted….
Finally, I predict that there will be a Nikki Lauda impression on a Motorsport podcast in 2010…
Happy New Year
Rob
Interesting comments I don’t agree tbat Bernie will retire just yet in fact I think he’ll go on as long as he can and I think Stoner and Lorenzo will duke it out for the Moto GP. What about the World Champion? I think Alonso will just edge out Vettel while Button and Hamilton take points off each other all year. While on the subject of points do you think the points system was altered so at least one of the Cosworth runners will score points this year and thus split up the travel pool even further or to give the winner a bigger gap?
I agree with Frederico, Leopards don’t change there knickers -
1. Hamilton and Alonso will have at least one collision.
Water under the bridge at this point.
2. Valentino Rossi will win the MotoGP championship.
Out on a limb there?
3. Michael Schumacher will win a race.
Yeah, if the car’s good he’ll be in the hunt every race. But, Lewis, Alonso, Button and Vettel will be taking most of the wins.
4. Audi will win at Le Mans.
Peugeot really are on a roll, and Audi didn’t know what hit them. Not even McNish could keep them close.
5. Bernie Ecclestone will start to prepare for his retirement.
This only happens after the embalming fluid goes in, and maybe not even then!
6. The Renault Formula 1 team will be a shadow of its former self.
Ditto BMW. Predict one new team will beat both these guys.
7. Kimi Räikkönen will return to F1 in 2011 with Red Bull.
Yeah, Vettel to Brawn & Kimi replaces him. But Kimi doesn’t seem to be able to deal with the F1 politics and BS. He’d need to be obviously motivated, but he never shows anything obvious, so I don’t know. On the other hand, Fisichella proved what dog the Ferrari really was, maybe Kimi just hated driving it.
8. Sebastian Vettel will move to Mercedes-Benz.
The Renault engine stays in one piece, Red Bull will probably beat Mercedes. And Mercedes won’t need Vettel if Schumacher is ascendant. But if MB crushes Red Bull, Vettel may make the compromises. If Schuey’s a bust, this is on for sure.
9. Lotus F1 will be the best of the new GP teams.
If Gascoyne doesn’t get fired first (just kidding). His cars go fast, and he’s got the experience, so good call. They beat Renault & BMW? USF1 will surprise (to the upside) and finish 10th.
10. Somebody will run out of fuel before the end of a Grand Prix.
Not fair to pick on the new teams, how about Ferrari?
I like this debate, and am enjoying your responses. Nice way to warm up for a new season.
Yup, some of them are out on a limb, but what the hell, I was interested in your reactions to them more than anything else.
Not many Schumacher fans out there, are there? I still like to think he will be a different bloke. But, as you say, when push comes to shove……..
World Champion? I decided against taking a punt on that. But if you insist – it will be Vettel.
None of us really know, do we? Or it would be pretty damn boring. On paper, it looks like a cracking year all round, but perhaps Mr Brawn has found another line in those rules that only he knows to interpret. Or one of his geeks.
Above all else, we must hope that motor racing becomes more sustainable and more in tune with the changing world.
RW
While I applaud Mr. Todt’s efforts to more F1 toward new technologies I sense a great deal of resistance. Do you think Rob, that the push for more real-world technologies will come through another sanctioning organization altogether? A bit of the subject but we are looking toward the future.
Some strange predictions,,Don’t know about Bernie retiring,,think he’l be ditching his wife for a younger model,,I mean she is getting on a bit
Moto GP….what the hell is that..people only watch it to see the accidents.
Kimi can come back……..as a marshall,but even then he might fall asleep on the job.he’ll be the marshall on his own because his tedious monotone voice bores everyone rigid….thats if he can make it to the circuit without smashing his car up or wearing the guts out of it.
As for that so called 7 time world champion with nearly every record to his name..that old boy has had it.he’ll be swanning around in his Maxi shopper mobility scooter whilst the young guns show him what real racing is all about.
As for his historical status….yeah!! as a cheat,…a bounder…a loser…I mean look what he did to poor little Damon….and that lovely Canadian chap who had that famous Dad
The nasty German is rubbish because he isn’t British…..rule brittania
Onto the serious stuff,,I would love to see Murray Walker at a few races,he is to F1 what Terry Wogan is to the Eurovision song contest
And Rob,,there are plenty of Schumacher fans out there,but this blog is mainly dominated by British fans.Go abroad where people don’t hold grudges,
He is more popular in Spain than Alonso,I can tell you as a Spaniard.
I expect Martin Brundell to trip over on one of his grid walks…….but that would be a cover ,for he would be on his knee’s as he seeked an interview with the Mighty Master Michael.
Following the decision by the FIA to amend its rules so that it can continue to pursue Briatore and Symonds, it also announces that it will ban Michael Schumacher for life for his deliberate crash in practice at Monaco.
In other motorsport news, the traditional aerobatic display by the Red Arrows at Silverstone will be replaced with a flypast by large pink animals with curly tails…
Juan… Do you like anything about motorsport?
…and as a side note… tons of Kimi Raikkonen fans here and we get tense when he gets pushed about… Just ask John Watson!
Snow falling here and local roads good practice for the Swedish rally. My little (front wheel drive) Modus handling it all with aplomb thus far. The joys of a torquey little diesel engine and some recently new front tyres.
Do I think that motor racing will embrace more new – and greener – technolgies. Yes, I do, and I fervenly hope I am right. It is vital, for its future prosperity, that the sport recognises what is happening in almost every other walk of our lives.
I was talking to Ross Brawn two weeks ago and he was adamant that F1 in particular has to put the days of absurd excess behind it. He has 450 people at Brackley and runs a very tight ship. Ferrari and McLaren have around 1,000 people working on their F1 businesses. That cannot be sustained. Nor can the escalating costs. There is another way. Smaller, more tightly controlled teams will be the survivors.
KERS was mishandled, clumsily introduced and vaguely overseen by the FIA. But it was the right kind of thinking. There will be more interesting, and better governed, breakthroughs to come.
Schumacher more popular than Alonso in Spain, huh? I can beleve that. He’s not about to be welcomed back to Woking any time son either. But he WILL be WELL worth watching in a Ferrari.
I like the flypast by the pink animals. A point well made. I do, however – and this may not be universally popular – believe that J.Todt maybe a far more positive and interesting leader than erhaps we expected.
More snow comin down. If it freezes again tonight, we will be marooned. A chance to read a book and catch up on some chores.
RW
Juan…..I thought I had read that Mrs Ecclestone ditched HIM for a younger model……
Can’t wait for cars to hit the tracks. Whether one likes or loathes him, having Schu back has lit a fire like nothing in a long time for me. And I wasn’t a big fan of his in the day, but I am interested in seeng how he does.
And as for the snow…..I love the slippery conditions, ‘Swedish Rally Practice’, bring it on!!!
Do i like any motorsport? off course I do,I like F1 and touring cars and banger racing..
It is in human nature and instinct to want danger and excitement,,from the Gladiators to boxing.It may be barbaric to some,but then we are carnivores,predators with eyes forward and canine teeth.
And I reckon F1 in the last few years has gone all fluffy.hardly a collision,nor many engine blow ups.
The new rule on aero dynamics and thinner tyre’s was “”"SUPPOSED”"” to give us closer than ever racing,with the car behind not being hindered by dirty air.
Well what a load of tosh….Most boring season of F1 in years.
And for the poor tense Raikkonen fans,I’m sorry people,but nobody wants him in F1.
I’m feeling lethargic just talking about him.
It always seems when i write a blog,I get someones back up,or everybodies.It’s as if the truth cuts deep with some of you.
You have to face it,that we will never have a legend F1 driver.all has-beens.
As you have guessed,I am a schuey fan..but aswell as him,i’d like to see that Kuby bloke do well,you know the japanese driver do well.he was im
pressive last year/
Rob we can’t have two affable Germans in F1(Vettel being the other) can we? I think Schumacher might have realised that he will make a bigger name for himself in Germany with Mercedes than with Ferrari, so perhaps you’re right about his changing his image but leopards don’t change their spots, do they?
I don’t think we’ll ever see Kimi back in an F1 car.
Tony: Leopards don’t change their sports. You can put a cherry on a pile of crap. It’s still just a pile of crap.
Once again we have a very jealous angry Brit.
Lets pretend that we live in another universe,this is still Great Britain and ;
1/we have a rich economy where everybody is housed,there is no poverty,there is no wars,we are loved by all other nations and Joanna Lumely is our PM,and Princess Di our queen.
2/England have the best football team in the world,and footballers only get paid £250 a week.
3/Global warming has given us splendid weather equal to that in St Tropez.
4/David Dickinson is white.
5/People suffer no disbilities and everybody is really nice to each other.
6/ Michael Schumacher is British.
CARLSBERG don’t do alternate parallel universe’s………BUT IF THEY DID…………,,,,,,,,This would probably be the best world in the unknown space
Happy new year Rob,
I hope that prediction 9 comes up. It’s great to have the Lotus name back on the grid. I know that its not Team Lotus, but none the less, as has been reported, they will have to live up to the name.
Good luck to all at the team.
God help us you’re right with No5, Rob…
I for one can’t wait to see an end to the reign of The Goblin King, but have a nasty feeling he’ll hang on even if he’s a disembodied brain floating in a tank and connected to a speech synthesiser.
I agree that Renault will fade now that they have been sold on, so the prediction of Vettel to win the title is a brave one. Last year Renault struggled to have their engine allocation last for the season and this year is likely to be worse for both Webber and Vettel at Red Bull with Renault power.
John makes a good point about Renault engines; last year was tough for them and with all that’s been going on in the team, it doesn’t seem like the best of environments, so I also believe that the weak link of the RB6 package will be the engine, but hopefully I’ll be proven wrong, because I think both Vettel and Webber could produce a championship winning campaign.
And even tough he might be hated my a lot of people, Schumi’s full time return from retirement is the best thing that could happen for F1 in terms of keeping it in the spotlight and stirring up interest.
And as much as I’d like Kimi to be back in F1 come 2011, I seriously think he’ll be off in a rally car for good; but F1 needs to find a way to keep drivers like him in the sport. I’m pretty shure many of the great drivers of the past would look elsewhere for employment if they had to put up with all the BS in current F1.
What is up with you people!
Mr ….kin..on, or Kimi to you fans of blonde blue eyed scandinavian men in tight racing overalls.
…….Nobody wants him in Formula one……
He had a very short stint as a hotshot,,and it’s over people…he dried up,,
It’s poetic justice because,what happened to Schuey has happened to him.
Tough luck,Goodbye and Goodluck with crashing your rally cars.
Thats the message from Ferrrari,and it echoed all the way down the paddock.
If he was graded school report style it would read……”doesn’t try very hard….seems to daydream allot ….could do better”
Hey Rico, perhaps it would do you good to provide us with your definition of “everyone” or “nobody”.
See, the reason I say that is because while you go on your tirades, many of which have valid points hidden behind the over-dramatic “honesty”, you keep trying to make the point that “nobody” wants Raikkonen back in F1. Clearly even Rob Widdows, the editor of what is probably the world’s most prestigious motorsport magazine doesn’t seem to share your belief, not to mention the other people on this website who seem to indulge you.
While it seems painfully obvious to me that you define yourself as the entire F1 public, if not the entire population of the world, your argument simply does not hold true. Repeat it as much as you like, but I for one see that the probability of him returning to F1 is much larger than that of not one person both in the paddock or in the stands wanting him back, like you incessantly claim.
I thought your grade school report analogy was spot on, and definitely Raikkonen had his chance to be the next great thing, and lost interest. I was never a big fan, and in my opinion all he did was get in Massa’s way, since Felipe had the drive to win from day 1. But let’s not forget he was world champion and he is a great driver. Whether you like it or not. It just seems funny that you keep bashing those who don’t like Shumacher yet you take a similar attitude towards Raikkonen, using a different angle to vent your frustration. We get it…
Juan against the world….. Relax man…. Kimi did just fine in F1 and if he had had a little reliability he would be sitting on 2 titles to Alonso’s 1…. I doubt Alonso would even dispute that….
the guy also had the pass of the decade on Fisi in Japan…. I cannot think of another pass on the final lap of an F1 race since I have been watching
I think over dramatic honesty works better in the real world.
Having just finished work,where honesty and reality are key fixtures of my role in the leisure industry,I see no reason to tip toe around and butter the edges on the essential basic facts of what I think.
Besides I think it makes better reading than some blogs on here that I could only describe as the “ANORAC ZONE”.
But on that note,everybody is entitled to their opinions and advanced knowledge which I confess is far more superior to mine………
……to a point.
You can bring Rob in or Bernie,,it will make no difference.Raikkonen lost his mojo,and critically early in his career,and crucially driving a Ferrari.
That is a very big error.You do not decide to take a sabatical when you are a Ferrari driver,therefore you are pushed out,therefore you are surplus to requirement.
I think it was a good move to get Alonso in the Ferrari,at least he still has some passion for the sport.
There is also no point saying Raikkonen could have had two championships,as the same should be said of Massa.
My favourite driver Schuey is up against some extremely good drivers,don’t think I don’t know that.
I
Rob, I see from your chat with Ross Brawn that 450 employees is considered a tight ship. What the heck do they all do? I can’t help thinking that if F1 was serious about reducing costs they could start with reducing the pit crew to one bloke per wheel (as per the IRL)now that refuelling is out of the way. More savings could be achieved by taking all the gizmos off the steering wheel except the pit-lane speed limiter and getting rid of the “ship to shore” radio. In the exteremly unlikely event of being in a F1 cockpit, nothing would irritate me more than a mechanic sitting on his backside in the pits saying “We need 3/10 off your lap time”. These blokes get paid enough to be able to work that out for themselves.
The snow has gone away, at least for the last two days, but we are told that the north wind will bring fresh falls later tonight. Meanwhile the roads are sheet ice. Nobody I know has ice tyres, or chains. Well, we are Brits, and we muddle along.
Blimey, this Raikonen stuff is getting a bit heavy. He is a charming, down-to-earth bloke, so let’s leave him alone and just admire his skill behind the wheel of very fast cars. Alos, he is absolutely his own man, and wil not be pushed around by PR and marketing people. He has entertained us, with some thrilling driving, and made a fortune along the way. Good fous and good for him. And, never fear, there is plenty more to come.
Right, that’s the last word on that. I will be back very soon with a brand new blog. Meanwhile we plan to do our next podcast next week, which should be fun, provided that we can all get to London through the ice and snow. We have not, as a nation, been very well organised thus far. But I remember vividly the last really bad winter in 1963 and……………it was just the same……………..bordering on chaos!
But, hey, we just get on with it and we do build some good Grand Prix cars. Oh yes, we do.
RW
To paraphrase you: What is it with you Juan? No sooner do you say you get lethargic talking about KR than follows another post about him. And I’m not even a particular fan of his, just your needing to post far more than others and in a less courteous manner like you did on Damien Smith’s recent blog is tiresome. Go to Planet F1 or some such to find your like-minded nationalistic company. And no, I’m not a Brit.
Rob-have just read your piece ‘ on the trail of Tazio’ and loved it.I bet he would relish going up against Hamilton,Alonso,Vettel and of couse Michael,were he alive today!As you say,’He is ,and will always be, a hero’.
Well, thank you! And thanks for taking the trouble to let me know you enjoyed it. I had a great time researching and writing it too. Great subject, wonderful story and so little space to do it justice! But all writers want more space…………………
It will be fascinating to see how history judges the young lions of today. One of the beauties of Motor Sport is that we can look back as well as enjoy the present. History teaches us so much.
The botom line, of course, is that all really great racing drivers share the same qualities and, many of them, the same flaws.
I remember David Purley saying to me that if you put two racers in hospital, they would race their wheelchairs down the corridors! Along with the talent you have to have that total desire to win. And Nuvolari certainly had that.
RW
Juan Rico meet the lovely Gilraen…
Love the possibilities you pose for next year Rob.
I am going to go out on a limb with a few others.
1) Someone in P1 will have a tyre related failure on the last lap.
2) The World Championship will go down to the last race with 4 drivers in the hunt.
3)After not finding a ride Jacques Villeneuve will be an FIA appointed driver/steward (ok maybe not.. but it would be fun huh?)
Jp
Coming from a massive Ferrari fan and Schumacher i have to agree with Mr Rico’s comments, I find it hard to believe people are backing kimi when clearly no one in F1 wanted him either, any team in that paddock would want schumacher in their team of that i have no doubt.
What ever you opinon of schumacher, you would look out of place in here and would possibly be better off somewhere where they have nice white padded walls and comfy jackets that they will even do up for you if you were to doubt for a 2nd that he isnt the best. and for anyone that is to comment back, i can throw loads of stats and world records on here to prove it :)
There’s no doubting that MS can drive a racing car as well as anyone, maybe better. But one thing about these ‘stats’ is that he won almost all of his races in this 3-sprint format that we have had for way to long. He rarely had to look after his tires or watch his fuel gauge, or pass anyone. Never had to manually shift the gears, which means he never missed a shift. Never had to deal with a quick team-mate until maybe Rubens on a given day. I always though him a bit greedy – I mean how many titles and wins are enough? His greed was proven to me at Indy in ’05 when he just about sent his own team-mate into the weeds (or was it the wall?) just to snatch an incredibly hollow victory over the Midlands and Minardis. MS had it way too easy for way too long and now he’s back. I hope the young lions show him the way ’round!
As with my banter before,and I’m sure it’s getting really boring now….The pure essence of Michaels prowess in F1 and probably any four wheeled racing,,It’s been proven he’s no Surtee’s.
is that he involves himself in every department in the team,he takes the very best of the best and implores the ultimate success available.
Now is that wrong,was he gifted with a silver spoon in his mouth…NO.as you know his parents were far from wealthy,his first GP race was funded by a bank loan his parents took out for him.So why then did the likes of Brawn and Byrne decide to follow him to Ferrari,was it his Black galvonised posing pouch or maybe,they knew this guy is the real deal.
The Sour grapes will never cease,Yes he collided into Hill,,,oh and Hill collided into him with pathetic overtaking manoeuvre’s TWICE!!,don’t hear so much about them do we…..It’s just not cricket..Hill is British..
Cubbedge…If your arguement is to have magnitude then it doesn’t say much for the other drivers in that period,especially Senna which many feel is the greatest.if what you say is to be true,Schumacher was the best of rest.
And as to the greed factor,,I was under the impression most sports were competition based.
What we have in Michael Schumacher is not just a racing driver,but he is also a
Technical analyst
Race engineer
Mechanical engineer
Chasis technologist
Tyre technologist
Human computer
Team player
all rolled into one man.
If you owned a GP team would you have him on your side…..you betcha
No I wouldn’t Rico.
you are as delusional about your hero as the rest of the schooey worshippers.
we will agree to disagree on this one, forever!
ok, now let the fireworks fly…..
Well Dave,obviously the F in F1 stands for Failure in your world.
And there is nothing delusional about Facts and stats,
We will disagree………………………………………………………………………………………………….but I’m still right
you are funny JR.
I aim to please…
Re: Schumacher…..
(Disclosure; I was never a fan.)
It seems to me that the like or dislike of Michael has become a generational issue simply because of his age.
Various sources point to his three most egregious violations but as an ethical issue, how can one not wonder how many others went unpublicised? We are now aware of the favouritism extended to Ferrari in collusion with the FIA, how can you not question what other transgressions occurred that will never come to light?
Michael may have the statistics but he cannot have the hearts of fair minded sportsmen and women.
And that is where I think it may be a generational thing. Young Germans may rally around the team for purely nationalistic reasons (and good for them!) being mostly oblivious to the tarnish. Young fans from anywhere may be enthused because of the record and the ‘comeback’ factor, but they will also be unaware of the tainted record and the cost at which he achieved the numbers.
I can only speak for myself, but I would like to think that older fans of my generation (of any nationality) will look on the Schumacher/Todt/Ferrari legacy with a rather sideways glance.
And on that note, I find it hard to imagine that Todt will be any different at the helm of the FIA!
Ecclestone has branded F1 with manipulation; it will take someone with a cleaner history than Mr. Todt to shift that brand.
John.