{"id":765699,"date":"2021-05-06T11:40:11","date_gmt":"2021-05-06T10:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/?p=765699"},"modified":"2021-05-06T11:40:13","modified_gmt":"2021-05-06T10:40:13","slug":"can-moneyball-be-used-to-find-the-best-ever-f1-driver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/articles\/single-seaters\/f1\/can-moneyball-be-used-to-find-the-best-ever-f1-driver\/","title":{"rendered":"Can ‘moneyball’ be used to find the best ever F1 driver?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Who\u2019s the best driver in Formula 1? You can consult Driver of the Day fan votes or the Autocourse Top Ten list. You can tally up races won and calculate winning percentages. You can chart pole positions, fast laps and total overtakes. And at the end of the day, it still boils down to a popularity test: Moss<\/a> or Fangio<\/a>. Prost<\/a> or Senna<\/a>. Hamilton<\/a> or Verstappen<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Justin Moore, an American software engineer with a passion for Formula 1<\/a>, believes he\u2019s got a better idea. During the past two decades, the application of data analytics to sports has challenged conventional wisdom about how players are evaluated and prompted a revolution in the way baseball, basketball and, to a lesser degree, American football are played. So three years ago, Moore decided to apply a data-driven approach to rating F1 drivers.<\/p>\n

Straight off, he ran into a roadblock. \u201cFormula 1 is probably the sport that has the biggest gap between what data the teams have and what\u2019s available to the casual fan and the intellectual community,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

As it turns out, the data set he was able to get his hands on was limited primarily to qualifying and finishing positions.<\/p>\n

So rather than create a complex statistical model, Moore developed a variation on the Elo rating system long used in the chess world (and now found on esports platforms as well). Although the maths are esoteric, the principle behind the Elo system is dead-simple: Every chess match is a zero-sum proposition with points awarded to and subtracted from each player, depending on the result of the game and the relative ratings of the players.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy model treats Formula 1 races and qualifying sessions as round-robin one-on-one tournaments,\u201d Moore explains. \u201cSo Lewis Hamilton has a race against Max Verstappen, and he also has a race against Valtteri Bottas<\/a> and Fernando Alonso<\/a> and each and every other driver on the track.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n \"VALENCIA,\n
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Moore’s previous model said that David Coulthard was better than Jim Clark…<\/p>\n

\n Bryn Lennon\/Getty Images\n <\/p>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n

In 2018, Moore co-wrote a story that appeared on FiveThirtyEight \u2013 a website devoted to savvy data analysis, mostly in the political sphere but also applied to sports and culture \u2013 under the provocative title \u201cWho\u2019s the Best Formula 1 Driver of All Time?\u201d All the usual suspects were at the top of the list \u2013 Ayrton Senna, Michael Schumacher<\/a>, Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel<\/a>, Juan Manual Fangio and Alain Prost, from first to sixth.<\/p>\n

Then things started to get wonky. David Couthard<\/a> (10th) ahead of Jim Clark<\/a> (12th)? Riccardo Patrese<\/a> (14th) in front of Jackie Stewart<\/a> (20th)? Alonso 22nd? Stirling Moss 25th? Nigel Mansell<\/a> 30th? No three-time World Driving Champion Jack Brabham<\/a>? No two-time champ Emerson Fittipaldi<\/a>? No Gilles Villeneuve<\/a>, for God\u2019s sake?<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n

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Red Bull’s aggressive recruitment drive continues with another five Mercedes employees moving across to its powertrains division<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t

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By\n\t\t\t\t\t\tJake Williams-Smith<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n<\/article>\n <\/div>\n
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The howling was loud enough to be heard through the din of a grid full of four-rotor Mazda 787B Le Mans prototypes. \u201cThe internet loved to tell me how wrong I was,\u201d Moore admits cheerfully. \u201cAnd a lot of things the critics said were valid.\u201d<\/p>\n

Turns out there were two systemic flaws with the model. First, it was based on stretches of five consecutive years, so one dreadful season could torpedo a driver\u2019s rating. Second, and far more problematic, cars and drivers were treated as a single unit. Thus, Rubens Barrichello<\/a> was ranked 15th on the basis of his stint with a dominant Scuderia Ferrari<\/a> while Alberto Ascari<\/a> faded to 19th because he wasted most of the 1954 season while waiting for the Lancia<\/a> D50 to show up.<\/p>\n

Before looking at the current F1 season, Moore tweaked the model. The biggest change was that cars and drivers were reconsidered as separate entities. But how to calibrate their relative values? Good question. Moore repeatedly ran the model plugging in different figures to see which numbers produced results that most closely corresponded to what really happened. At the end of the day, he says, the sweet spot was roughly two-thirds car, one-third driver.<\/p>\n

“Moore\u2019s contrarian conclusion was that Verstappen was the best driver of 2020”<\/p>\n

Moore was coy about how the new model affects the historical ratings, though he intimated that Moss and Alonso will be hustling up the list. But he\u2019s already written another article for FiveThirtyEight about how F1 appears to be shaping up this year.<\/p>\n

According to Moore\u2019s analysis, the last year\u2019s Mercedes-AMG F1 W11<\/a> was significantly stronger than Red Bull\u2019s RB16<\/a>. No surprise there. But Moore\u2019s contrarian conclusion was that Verstappen was the best driver of 2020 even though he finished a distant third to Hamilton in the title hunt. Moore\u2019s model sees 2021 as a toss-up between these two titans, with Verstappen holding a 51 percent to 49 percent edge in qualifying while Hamilton gets the same advantage in races. The first three events of the season would seem to confirm this forecast.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n

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When factoring in driver and car reliability \u2013 which are treated as independent variables \u2013 Moore rates Sergio Perez<\/a> as the best of the rest, with Daniel Ricciardo<\/a> ahead of McLaren<\/a> team-mate Lando Norris<\/a> and Carlos Sainz Jr.<\/a> likely to outperform the admittedly quicker Charles Leclerc<\/a> at Ferrari. Pierre Gasly<\/a> and George Russell<\/a> net out as the most likely diamonds in the rough.<\/p>\n

And what of Hamilton\u2019s wingman at Mercedes? \u201cOne thing that sticks out in my mind is the degree to which the model isn\u2019t impressed by Valtteri Bottas<\/a>,\u201d Moore says.<\/p>\n

Love it or hate it, Moore\u2019s analysis provides food for thought. To me, the biggest problem is that the data set is so crude. In baseball, the result of every pitch can be quantified from start to finish. Racing, alas, is opaque by design. The action we see on track is just the tip of the iceberg, but the vast majority of the important stuff takes place behind closed doors.<\/p>\n

Further complicating matters, there\u2019s no perfect agreement about the qualities that ought to be prized most highly in a driver. How do you balance a car-control virtuoso like Ronnie Peterson<\/a> against a set-up\/development genius like Mario Andretti<\/a>, or the racecraft of a John Watson<\/a> against the single-lap pace of a Ren\u00e9 Arnoux<\/a>? Can a driver save tyres? Eke out fuel consumption numbers? Avoid mayhem caused by others?<\/p>\n

\n \"Bottas\n
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Pole or no pole, the new model isn’t kind to Valtteri Bottas<\/p>\n

\n Grand Prix Photo\n <\/p>\n <\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n

Still, I can\u2019t help but wonder if the top F1 teams haven\u2019t developed their own proprietary driver-rating programs. In addition to qualifying and finishing results, they\u2019ve got access to the lap times of every car in every race. They can make allowances for tyre life, fuel load and track position. Trap speeds provide powerful clues about engine power and aerodynamic performance. Just imagine all the hard data and informed speculation they could load into a computer!<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if each team maintains a driver-rating list of its own to help make informed decisions when silly season rolls around. And who knows? Maybe conventional wisdom is right after all. Maybe the best drivers end up in the best teams precisely because they\u2019re the best drivers, and not the other way around.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Justin Moore’s statistical model to find the best F1 driver ever caused outrage \u2013 now its new iteration might raise a few eyebrows too, writes Preston Lerner<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":261,"featured_media":765715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[118712],"tags":[115462,34092,34520],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/765699"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/261"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=765699"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/765699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":765746,"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/765699\/revisions\/765746"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/765715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=765699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=765699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.motorsportmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=765699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}