The F1 teams that need a big 2026 season

Rule changes are often sold as fresh starts, but in Formula 1 they are just as often moments of reckoning.

When the rules reset, progress is no longer judged against last year’s compromises but against the opportunity to be successful. Some teams arrive liberated by that, others exposed by it, and a few knowing that the clock on their current project has already run out.

The 2026 overhaul is one of the most consequential in modern times, reshaping power units, aerodynamics and, possibly, the competitive balance between manufacturers and independents.

It arrives after a 2025 season in which several teams made deliberate choices to look to the future, accepting short-term pain in the belief that a clean-sheet in 2026 would reward them. That gamble has raised expectations as much as it has bought time.

For the teams that bet early, 2026 is not simply about improvement but about justifying that decision.

For those with new engines, new structures or new leadership models, the rules change strips away comfortable explanations and forces projects to reveal what they really are.

Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull, Aston Martin and Alpine arrive at the same moment from very different places, but with a shared need: to emerge from the reset looking credible, coherent and competitive.

Ferrari

Ferrari arrives at the 2026 regulation change carrying more pressure than most teams, because no one else has paid a higher price to get there.

The Scuderia’s 2025 campaign unravelled early and never recovered, despite promises of planned upgrades that were supposed to unlock the full potential of its car.

In the end, that didn’t happen, and Ferrari went from the idea of winning races to dropping to fourth in the standings.

The poor season was not solely the result of incompetence but also intent: a conscious decision to pivot resources and manpower towards the incoming rules while rivals continued to chase performance in the present.

The result was a year that drifted from frustration into almost irrelevance, leaving Ferrari needing 2026 not merely to be good, but to make the preceding year feel like something other than a mistake.

That choice has sharpened expectations internally and externally. Ferrari cannot plausibly frame another transitional season as part of a long-term rebuild when it has already endured one by design.

The argument that 2025 was sacrificed only holds if 2026 delivers tangible competitive advantage – wins, sustained championship contention, and a car concept that immediately looks like it belongs at the front rather than learning on the job.

There is also a reputational element at play. Ferrari’s modern era has been defined by near-misses, resets and strategic overhauls that promised clarity but delivered only incremental progress. Another rules reset was supposed to be the moment Ferrari broke that cycle, using stability at senior management level and an early technical head start to avoid the false dawns of the past.

Failing to capitalise would reinforce the perception that Ferrari struggles to convert opportunity into success, and Fred Vasseur’s position will face further scrutiny if that ends up being the case.

The Maranello squad must look convincing, coherent and competitive from the outset.

Ferrari has all the right elements to hit the ground running and, having compromised 2025 to be better prepared for 2026 leaves it without any place to hide.

Aston Martin

Few teams have aligned themselves more explicitly with the 2026 reset in mind than Aston Martin, and few will face more scrutiny because of it.

Like Ferrari, Aston effectively wrote off a large part of 2025 to concentrate on the new regulations, but unlike Ferrari, it did so while simultaneously assembling what is meant to be a transformative structure: a state-of-the-art factory, a works engine deal with Honda, and the arrival of Adrian Newey in a dual role that blends technical authority with overarching leadership.

That combination leaves little room for error.

Aston Martin has spent years positioning itself as a future frontrunner and 2026 is the point at which that claim must be validated on track.

Newey’s presence inevitably raises expectations beyond steady progress or occasional podiums; he has been hired to shape concepts, set direction and impose clarity in areas where Aston Martin has previously drifted. If the 2026 car lacks coherence or competitiveness, it will immediately raise uncomfortable questions about how effectively that influence has been applied.

On top of that, Newey has also been named team principal, increasing the pressure to show the dual-role plan is actually workable.

The Honda partnership adds another layer of pressure. This is not a customer deal that allows for excuses, but a full works relationship at the very moment power unit performance and integration return to centre stage.

Aston Martin has chosen to stand alongside a manufacturer with a championship pedigree in the hybrid era; it must now show it can exploit that status technically and operationally, not merely badge it as ambition.

There is also a strategic narrative to resolve. Aston Martin’s rise in 2023 created expectations that outpaced its underlying maturity, and the regression that followed exposed structural weaknesses rather than simple form loss. The early bet on 2026 was meant to address exactly those shortcomings.

If Aston Martin emerges from the regulation change looking competitive and conceptually confident, it will confirm that the long-term vision was sound.

Red Bull

Red Bull heads into 2026 in a more stable position than it appeared to be mid-2025, yet paradoxically under greater strategic pressure.

The second half of 2025 suggested the team had rediscovered its composure, stopping a decline that had threatened to redefine the post-ground-effect era.

But the regulation reset does not allow Red Bull to carry that momentum forward unchallenged, because 2026 also marks the arrival of its own power unit – a step that fundamentally changes the risk profile of the whole organisation.

Red Bull Powertrains-Ford represents independence and long-term security, but it also removes a crucial safety net.

For the first time since its rise to dominance, Red Bull will not be able to lean on a proven external engine partner while refining the rest of the car. Any shortfall in performance, drivability or energy deployment will inevitably be framed as the growing pains of a first-generation power unit – a reasonable explanation, but not a particularly useful one.

That is because Red Bull’s greatest asset is also its greatest source of pressure. Max Verstappen has carried the team through periods of imbalance before, but the events of 2025 subtly shifted the dynamic.

When Red Bull faltered, Verstappen’s supremacy was no longer enough to mask structural issues, and his long-term future became a topic of serious paddock conversation rather than idle speculation.

Entering a new regulation cycle with anything less than a car capable of winning consistently risks turning those questions into leverage.

The 2026 car needs to be fundamentally competitive, the engine visibly on a strong development trajectory, and Verstappen convinced that the project still points upward. A transitional year can be explained; a year that looks like a step back will be harder to justify.

Mercedes

If regulation resets are supposed to reward industrial and technical might, then 2026 looks tailor-made for Mercedes.

The team’s modern identity was forged in exactly these circumstances in 2014, when a clean-sheet power unit era allowed it to turn preparation and integration into sustained dominance.

More than a decade on, Mercedes enters another reset with every structural advantage still firmly in place, which is precisely why 2026 carries so little tolerance for underachievement.

The 2025 season was uneven but not disastrous, marked by flashes of competitiveness undermined by inconsistency and a car that never quite settled into a reliable performance window. But unlike in previous years, there is no sense of Mercedes scrambling to correct a philosophical misstep.

Instead, the team has positioned itself to attack the new rules from a position of relative clarity, with stable leadership, refined processes and a power unit programme widely regarded within the paddock as the benchmark heading into the new era.

The 2026 rules place renewed emphasis on power unit efficiency, energy management and integration, areas in which Mercedes has historically excelled. If its power unit advantage materialises as expected, it removes the most convenient explanation for failure before the season has even begun.

Mercedes has had time, resources and alignment. The pressure therefore increases.

While it doesn’t need to recreate its 2014 success, it does need to look like a team whose strengths finally align with the rules in front of it. If this reset does not suit Mercedes, it becomes fair to ask what ever will.

Alpine

Few teams arrive at the 2026 regulation change with more at stake than Alpine, because no one fell further in pursuit of it.

The 2025 season was not merely uncompetitive but terminally bleak, a year effectively written off as the team poured everything into preparing for new rules and a radically different future.

Finishing at the back while insisting that salvation was a year away is always a dangerous narrative, one that only works if the promised payoff actually arrives.

For the first time in its modern existence, Alpine will compete without a Renault power unit, instead becoming a Mercedes customer following the French manufacturer’s withdrawal.