At the start of the season I listed a few predictions for the year and I think we – that’s you lot out there and me – agreed we would review those predictions at mid-season.
Well, as I write, we are 12 days into the second half of the year and pretty much at the halfway stage of the 2009 season. So, casting caution to the summer breezes, here are my latest musings on what may transpire before the year is out…
Some of my earlier predictions have come to pass, while many have not. Hopefully, however, it’s just a bit of fun as we move through what has turned out to be a very exciting season.
Before racing gets underway in 2010:
- Sébastien Loeb will retire from rallying and switch to either Grand Prix cars or long-distance sports cars. Probably the latter.
- Valentino Rossi will win another MotoGP title and everybody will yet again wonder what on earth they can do about this extraordinary bloke.
- Rubens Barrichello, Kimi Räikkönen, Giancarlo Fisichella, Jarno Trulli and Sébastien Bourdais will all disappear from Grand Prix racing.
- Lewis Hamilton will make noises about leaving McLaren. But he won’t.
- Nico Rosberg will replace Heikki Kovalainen at McLaren.
- Michael Schumacher will deny that he is to return to Formula 1, with Brawn GP, but he might.
- The winner of the Formula 2 championship will impress the Williams team and be offered a job.
- British Formula 3 champion Jaime Alguersuari will be very quick in the Toro Rosso and everybody will say that, within a short time, Grand Prix racing will be for teenagers only.
- Fernando Alonso will race for Scuderia Ferrari.
- Max Mosley will not stand again for the presidency of the FIA; Bernard Ecclestone will retire in 2010 and Ron Dennis will return to the fray.
- Jacques Villeneuve will return to Grand Prix racing.
- The British Grand Prix will stay at Silverstone.
A few, but not many, of these will come to pass. Oh yes, and Jenson Button will be World Champion, but only by the skin of his teeth, and Red Bull will win the constructors’ championship.
All this is hopeless guesswork because motor racing is just so unpredictable. But that’s partly why we love it so much. You, of course, will have your own opinions.
“Jacques Villeneuve will return to Grand Prix racing.”
Yes, please!
What is this preoccupation with Villeneuve he was outpaced at Renault and only won the championship in 1997 by the skin of his teeth when he had the best car in the field by a street? He has had his day.
For me, this is not a pre-occupation. Simply a prediction, based on what many little birds are telling me. Sure, I like Jacques Villeneuve, he’s a big character and an individual who’s not afraid to speak his mind. But I have no particular axe to grind here……………………………
The Times of London reports that CVC Capital Partners, who employ Mr Ecclestone, have denied absolutely that Mr E will be asked to step down from his role of King of Formula One. I guess they would. But I still believe he is reaching the end of his reign. We have , however, said this many times before.
RW
Brilliant forecast with the Max Mosley issue becoming a fact only two days after writing.
The only thing, er, driver, I wouldn’t be sure about is Jarno Trulli. Let’s replace that/him with the more likely and deserved-to-vanish-into-thin-air name of Nelson Piquet jr.
Anthony Davidson will replace Barrichello at Brawn.
I believe that Piquet Junior brings with him some much-needed financial support so he is likely to be somewhere on the grid. But yes, he has been disappointing – maybe he would perform more strongly away from Renault where the team is built around Alonso and where Mr Briatore has little patience with under-achievers?
Interesting. Davidson WILL replace Barrichello? Is that a fact, or just a very educated guess?!! What about Bruno Senna, or Nico Rosberg? And where will Massa go? I do not know.
I do want to see Vatanen beat Todt to the Presidency of the FIA. And I think he just might.
Formula Two at Brands Hatch this weekend. I’m very much looking forward to seeing the cars for the first time this year. The series winner gets a test with Williams and Robert Wickens is destined for greater things. Some good drivers in F2 this year. And then it’s Moto GP on the TV. Good weekend in prospect.
RW
PK Jr will end up with one of the new teams, I just hope it’s not USF1. I’m not convinced he has what his daddy had, possibly he was rushed into F1…
No, it would appear that Junior is not in the same league as Nelson. But not many people are. I think you can put Nelson up there with Stewart, Lauda, Prost and ……………………………..Mansell?
I guess that USF1 will want to have one American driver. Rahal? Andretti? And I bet Franchitti would do a good job.
It’s going to be tough for the new teams but maybe there will be a surprise among them.
To me, it’s just amazing that there is still enough money around to support all these teams.
RW
There is nothing on Villeneuve’s mind; he just talks too much.
Can we please stop with this Villeneuve guy? He is a laughing stock here in Quebec. He occasionaly karts and is totally out of his league. He was dropped by two F1 teams, won a championship at the final GP in what was one of the most dominating cars in F1 and people want him back because he speaks his mind. Give me a break…….he was a fluke. Any team that signs him deserves him.
ah, but there’s magic in the name alone….isn’t there? I mean, we’re all talking about him again aren’t we?
for the record, I agree with Mario, despite being a huge fan of Gilles in the day. There was always the hope that he’d be a chip off the ol’ block, but it didn’t quite happen that way.
I seem to have inadvertently started something here. Which is good and bad.
Good, because we are all motor racing fans, and we all have our opinions, especially about drivers.
Bad, because I had no intention of putting Villeneuve on any kind of pedestal. I simply speculated that he might come back to F1 because that’s what I have heard. And because, if he did, it would be a big story. For better, or for worse.
To clear your minds of JV, let me also speculate that if Alonso is in a Ferrari next year then he will win many, many races. And, looking ahead to a good weekend, the Moto GP will be a thriller and the Brawns will be closer to the Red Bulls in Hungary.
I will be taking a look at Formula 2, and I will be interested to see if Robert Wickens is as fast as I thought he was when last I saw him in A1GP.
Or perhaps I should not mention any more Canadians………………
RW
Rob
my comment about Anthony Davidson at Brawn was just a guess but has some merit I reckon given his previous connections and his undoubted ability. Really hope that happens.
While we’re at it. Who’s in the frame for the 3 new teams? When I first heard the news about USF1, I though maybe Danica Patrick but she keeps talking NASCAR and I suspect that F1 would be a step too far for her. I’d be happy to be proved wrong on that one though. Andretti or Rahal would help up the profile for them although us European F1 fans should never underestimate how much we overestimate US race fans interest in open wheel racing of any sort these days.
If Torro Rosso do sign yet another Sebastien for next year, then I wonder if the experience they are giving to Jaime Unpronounceable (sorry!) would be a good fit for Campos. I can’t see Alonso going there and ‘doing a Fittipaldi’ for his home team can you?
Manor are the ones who leave me stumped. Rubens maybe if it is goodbye to Brawn? Whoever they choose (assuming any of them can afford it) my guess is that given the lack of testing all 3 new boys will need a least one old hand to help them establish themselves at this level.
As for JV, well I thought he was a great driver in his day with a talent that was slowly but surely blunted by the whole BAR fiasco. Surely there is no way back for him now.
RR
Kimi Raikkonen is going no where except Ferrari in 2010… The press is so excited to get rid of Kimi. These same people were saying Kimi woudl be dumped last year and he got an extension instead.
Podcast RSS feed?
And maybe im being dumb but i cant see any link to download the podcast?
What is your prediction about races in North America?
Will we see races there?
Steve
Rockford, Michigan USA
This is already wrong… Trulli is set to sign an extension with Toyota. And next month Kimi will be confirmed back at Ferrari… and eveyone knew Seb B was gone anyway.
Of course some of my predictions are wrong. It’s simply a bit of harmless fun. Some will be right.
I do not think that F1 will return to the USA in the near future. Unless the major car manufacturers threaten something disruptive – like siding with FOTA against the FIA and Mr E. And we are not there. Yet.
Yup, many of us are stumped by what the new teams will do if, or when, they appear in the new year.
In my view, every team needs at least one “old hand” and one Bright Young Thing. But are there really enough of either?!
I cannot see Alonso going anywhere but Ferrari, whatever Kimi’s legion of fans has to say. I am a fan too, but I think he will decide to quit. Who knows?!
So, Rossi did it again. It is just SUCH exciting racing. At least that prediction was correct………..
Not feeling on top of my game today. We all had a truly dreadful day at Brands Hatch yesterday and I feel devastated by the shocking accident which befell young Henry Surtees. A stark and rude reminder that motor racing can never be truly safe, despite all the advances in car safety and driver protection. A very bleak day indeed for the sport.
RW
Rob… I must say I have the upmost respect for you as a writer. I don’t always agree, but the fact that you are willing to converse with us on the comments section and not simply write a quick article and vanish says volumes about you as a journalist.
I agree with Michael, Rob. It is great fun connecting with you on these pages.
And as for V. Rossi……he’s a freak! That was one heck of a race Sunday and ALL four-wheeled motorsport needs to take notice of the excitement generated by those at the front of the German Moto GP.
Rob:
My appreciation for your feedback/connection to us motor racing fans. I have often found that your colleague are very approachable and really love the sport. One of my highlights was to meet Jenkinson and Roebuck.
Please do tell me how – Formula One can be the pinnacle of motor racing w/out visiting North America. Until the sport – reconciles itself with it’s core fan base it will continue to have difficulties.
In closing…. my condolences to John Surtees…
Regards, Steve
Afternoon All.
Well, it’s afternoon here – lunchtime in fact – down by the sea on the south coast of England. And it’s raining. Of course it’s raining, it’s summer time. Good for the garden, bad for the soul. But we Brits get used to summers like this.
I’n not sure that Formula One is the pinnacle of motor racing. I mean, yes, it is the most sophisticated, the most advanced technically and the most expensive………………..but what is the pinnacle is a subjective thing.
To me, Grand Prix racing is the ultimate challenge rather than any kind of pinnacle. But I do agree that there really must be a Grand Prix in the USA and in Canada. This is pure logic – a truly global sport goes to the USA just as it goes to Brazil, Australia, Japan, wherever. There has always been an American Grand Prix – at least in recent times. I loved going to Watkins Glen – great place to go racing – and Sebring has its wacky appeal.
Problem is…………………….money. Since Grand Prix racing became F1, and became a multi-billion dollar busines, priorities have changed. The bottom lines are now profitablity and TV ratings.
Sponsors would love to go back to the USA, and Canada. Of course they would, that’s where they sell their products. But sponsors don’t run the business, they simply pay the bills.
Spectators? Well, Mr Ecclestone says the Americans don’t get F1 and they don’t pay to go and watch. Yes, possibly so, but nor do the Chinese, the Malaysians, the Turks and the Bahrainis. So that doesn’t make complete sense.
I don’t have the answers. Mr E. runs the business, he calls thre shots. For now, at least. But expect changes in the next 4 to 5 years, if not sooner.
Rossi – ah, Rossi – what a bloke, what a hero. This Moto GP is almost too exciting to watch, too tense. Just as great sport should be. But the real point here is that he is winning by metres, not by half a lap, and that’s why people don’t mind him winning all the time. Except, of course, all the other folk who ride the Moto GP bikes……………………….
Anyway, yes, it’s fun to communicate with people, and who cares if we don’t agree on everything. It would be boring if we did.
I still feel down after Brands Hatch. I’ve known, liked and admired John Surtees since the mid 1970s and we can only imagine just how devastated he and his family must feel. Sadly, you simply cannot do much more to avoid the kind of accident that happened in the F2 race last Sunday. Motor racing, like life, can sometimes be unfathomably harsh.
Off on holiday next week. And I need a break to clear my head and refresh my zest for life. A few days on the island of Corfu in the Ionian Sea usually works well. Not good news for the cats but then they’re not keen to fly eiher. Nothing is perfect.
It will almost certainly be hot in Budapest. The Brawns will be nearer to the Red Bulls. Newey versus Brawn – good stuff!
RW
Keep polishing the crystal ball Rob.Great shame that you missed B.M.W.s exit Would you care to have a stab at any other names who might join them?
I would not be surprised to see at least two more walking away into the sunset and judging from the ‘bolt’s'comments and tone on the radio today he seems resigned to losing a few more ‘names’
On another point if a manufacturer who also supplies engines to other teams walks away will we be heading back to ‘Formula Cosworth’?
what was so wrong with FCosworth? the 70′s were tremendous!!!
it has been a while since I cared about the lump in the back. we rarely get to see it and none of them emit the sound of a late 60s V12 Ferrari or Matra.
Sorry if I gave the wrong inpression re F Cosworth they were some of the best racing that I was lucky enough to see.One abiding memory was sitting in the stand on the outside of the original Woodcote and almost suffering burst eardrums as a V12 Ferrari went through on full noise—MAGIC!!!
Surely an F Cosworth would be a step along the cost saving route for the teams who currently plough large sums into engine R & D.I realise that we have an engine specification freeze but I also feel that a degree of engine ”development” still exists
No problem Mr. Eglington. I had my eardrums rattled at the Glen in ’78 when I joined a group of onlookers who were watching the Ligier mechanics warm up a Matra V12 late on Friday night in the garage. I will never forget that sound!
I am really pleased to see you guys have been arguing amongst your selves while I’ve been away on a Greek island for a few days. Great.
Well, my crystal ball is not performing too well, but I reckon that Renault will walk away if the FIA continues to treat them so badly. To be banned from a race for a mistake in the pitlane just seems absurd. There was no talk of banning Ferrari for a race when Massa travelled the length of the Singapore pitlane trailing his fuel hose.
Just back from London where we have recorded the latest audio podcast for this website. Should be “on air” with in hours. We tried to answer as many of your questions as possible in a short space of time but time just flies when you get a few guys round a tabel to talk about motor racing………….I’m sure you know the feeling!
Those who sent us questions included Alastair WarrenSantiago Fernandez, Diego Sanchez, Valisk, Dan Ryan and Andrew Wilkins – so hopefully you lot will tune in and find out if your point was raised.
We would need a couple of hours to answer them all!
Time for me to create a new blog -this one is getting a bit past its sell-by date – and there’s too much scrolling around to get to the point I reckon!
So, soon as I get some time, I will be back with a new subject, and maybe even a few predictions that will probably never come to pass…..
RW
I stil hope your prediction of Kimi being gone is wrong as well. I know he won’t be in F1 after next year, but I want to see him have a competative car his final year in F1 and that is not the F60.
Well, who knows what lies in store for 2010 and beyond? My crystal ball is far from reliable, as we all know.
But I do think that Alonso will feature in Ferrari’s plans. Who knows, if Massa decides enough is enough, maybe Schumacher will come back for a final tilt at another title?
What I do know is that Raikkonen will have Schumacher very much on his mind as he travels to Valencia. He may not always look as though he cares about very much at all, but he will care if he is behind the German on the grid in two weeks time.
RW