When he was 104 points behind in the F1 title race Max Verstappen had nothing to lose. But now he's back in contention, the opposite is true, writes Mark Hughes. Can he win the championship without risking a crash that would end his hopes?
Verstappen's uncompromising racing brought success in 2021 and 2024. But it;s a riskier strategy this year
As Red Bull‘s late-season development has brought it alive, so Max Verstappen‘s points onslaught into what had seemed like an impregnable advantage for the McLaren drivers is lighting the season up. It’s turned it from a slightly awkward internal McLaren contest, and all the control that has come with that, to something a bit more raw, ruthless and unambiguous. Something much more satisfying, regardless of the outcome.
Verstappen, with nothing to lose and a car which is suddenly behaving just as he needs it to, has been enjoying his unexpected bonus of fighting for a fifth straight title and running free as the wind. He’s still 40 points behind Oscar Piastri (and 26 behind Lando Norris), which is a lot with just five races (and two sprints) to go.
Taking eight points per event (including the sprints in Brazil and Qatar) out of the championship lead is a tall order when there’s just a seven-point difference between winning and second in each main race (and just one point between those positions in the sprints). Although it’s possible he could still take the title without winning Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi in succession (depending on the fortunes of Piastri and Norris, obviously), realistically, he needs to win the main event almost every time. In his current form, that’s not a ridiculous prospect.
Verstappen will need a flawless run until Abu Dhabi
Red Bull
But what he absolutely cannot afford is just one retirement. Ironically, his ‘nothing to lose’ form has brought him to the point where he now needs to think carefully about the consequences of any wheel-to-wheel moves. Previously, any potential contact didn’t really matter as he wasn’t in title contention anyhow. Now he is.
Verstappen has shown himself to be very flexible in his approach according to the dynamics of the championship. In both late ’21 and late ’24, he defended a points lead by being hyper-aggressive wheel-to-wheel with his rival (Lewis Hamilton and Norris respectively), playing to his advantage the fact that the rival trailing on points had more to lose in any collision. The other guy had to avoid contact and Max used that (in Brazil and Jeddah ’21 and Austin and Mexico ’24) tactically.
McLaren wants to let its drivers race, but with Verstappen closing in, could its idealism come at a heavy price?
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Other times, with the title rival not a concern and just needing to get safe points, he’s raced conservatively – for example, not fighting Hamilton at Vegas last year as the latter caught and passed him.
But how does he play it now? There’s surely a conflict there. All’s well and good if he can set pole, win the start and leave everyone behind. But what if he has to fight his way past or fend off a McLaren? This time, as the guy behind on points, any contact potentially hurts him more than the McLaren driver – and massively boosts the chances of the other McLaren driver.
Which brings us to the obvious complication to all this. Because it’s not a straight duel but a three-way fight, neither Norris nor Piastri can really adopt the Verstappen ’21/24 tactic of daring him to have the contact, as that would hand the advantage to the other McLaren driver. So does this mutually-assured destruction neutralise the threat of physical contact?
This is building into one of the most fascinating title showdowns in F1 history.
