Leclerc has four poles, but no wins in Baku... yet
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Charles Leclerc is set to start Baku from the back of the grid as he and Ferrari have decided to replace the old-spec power unit he ran in Madrid with a new one to the same ADUO2 spec as the unit he damaged in his Monza crash.
That may sound like just a routine bit of late-season housekeeping as mechanical durability invariably pushes up against the restrictions of the regulations, just as we saw with Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes at Monza. But that it should be happening at Baku will be particularly galling for Leclerc because this, of all the tracks on the calendar, is his special one. Sometimes the quickest man around here by a ridiculous margin, even against ostensibly faster cars, he was on pole for four consecutive years between 2021-24, yet he still has not won here.
Infamously, after being fastest by an outrageous amount through the practice sessions of 2019, he crashed out of Q2 at the narrow Turn 8 and called himself an idiot as he punched the steering wheel. Last year he also crashed out in Q2 after a gust of wind unloaded the car at Turn 15 (one of several to crash out in that windy session). But at all the races in between, his Ferrari was on pole.
Leclerc leads the field at the start of the 2024 race
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There is something about the combination of these short turns between the walls, preceded by heavy braking zones, which works brilliantly well with his ability to induce fast rotation in the early corner by way of overlapping brakes and cornering. It’s the core part of his skill, the thing that he does probably better than anyone, and it’s heavily rewarded here. Especially in combination with the Ferrari’s small turbo response through and out of the corner.
Although he’s not having his best of seasons – penalised more than some by the energy management requirements of the ’26 generation of car being a poor fit with his natural driving style – starting from the back at this, of all tracks, allows him the possibility to do something quite special on race day. Kimi Antonelli’s victory from the back at Monza for Mercedes is recent enough to place an even bigger spotlight on Leclerc here.
Yes, at Monza Antonelli had the fastest car, but historically, Ferrari has very often been the fastest around Baku even in seasons when it’s otherwise been struggling. Yes, Antonelli got a lucky break with the safety car at Monza, but Leclerc can take consolation that the probability of strategy-rescuing safety cars at Baku is historically high.
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The additional challenge, of course, is to keep the car out of the walls as he makes his charge from the back, something Antonelli didn’t have to worry about too much at the more open venue of Monza. But although overtaking is not reckoned to be quite as easy here as at Monza, it’s still one of the more passing-friendly venues on the calendar, the very reason this race has been chosen to take the penalty.
With both Ferrari drivers realistically out of title contention now, the individual race performances of Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton in the remainder of the season carry a lot of weight. There is absolutely no logical reason to place either one of them in a support role to the other from a championship perspective, so Baku carries extra resonance. Especially for Hamilton, unencumbered by any grid penalties so far.
Whatever the main story of the race weekend turns out to be, this storyline is going to be fascinating and it would be quite something if the four-time pole man here finally wins the race after starting from the back. Improbable? A little, yes. Impossible, no.
