MPH: Deployment and deception: decoding F1 testing runs in Bahrain

As you read this, we’ll be into the second (and final) pre-season Bahrain tests. But looking back at last week’s three days of running encouraged us to play the game of ‘who is fastest?’

The rules of this game are slightly different to previous years as we prepare for the first season of an all-new formula.

In addition to the usual provisos about fuel levels and power unit (PU) modes, there’s a bit of controversy around the Mercedes PU and so one would assume that if it has an inherent advantage as a result of its compression ratio ruse, then the last thing Mercedes wants to be doing during testing is to make that obvious. Naturally, any comparison which does not show a Mercedes-powered car as fastest will be met with cynicism by the non-Mercedes teams, Red Bull and Ferrari in particular, both of which appear to have competitive cars.

With that as the lens through which the three days of running should be viewed, we saw McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes at the top of the headline single laptimes on Wednesday through Friday. Kimi Antonelli‘s Mercedes set the fastest time of the test on the final day. Charles Leclerc‘s Ferrari was fastest on day 2, Oscar Piastri‘s McLaren on day 1. But not much store can be set by single-lap pace, especially this year.

When the cars began doing long runs, then the teams all had access to the GPS data, which would reveal power unit deployment ability and so the game really began. Here’s Mercedes’ Toto Wolff on the first day after Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and Merc’s George Russell did their long runs at roughly the same time of day, with Verstappen significantly faster: “Red Bull have a clear advantage, I would say. Look at their energy deployment. They are able to deploy far more energy on the straights than everybody else. On a single lap, we’ve seen it before, but now we’ve seen how it looks on 10 consecutive laps with the same kind of straightline deployment [throughout]. They are taking 1sec out of us on the straights. I would say that today, the first official day of testing, they are the benchmark.”

Russell was giving a similar message: “These tests have been a bit of a reality check because there were so many expectations around Mercedes, but it was just talk – there was no substance to those opinions. We arrived in Barcelona on the first day and the Red Bull power unit was incredibly strong. We got here to Bahrain and once again it was very strong and much better than ours and Ferrari’s… The truth is that right now, we’re not the team to beat and we’re not the power unit to beat – it’s Red Bull. It’s interesting that it was Red Bull who started these rumours [about the Mercedes PU advantage] and yet they’re the most competitive. Maybe they wanted to divert attention.”

Just a quick look at the GPS traces shows that the Red Bull Powertrains PU was indeed able to deploy harder and longer with the battery in a balanced state (i.e., sustainable for multiple laps). But that would be the case if the PU it was being compared to (i.e., the Mercedes in this case) was running with its internal combustion engine turned down. In its role as a generator for the battery, it would not be recovering the energy as fast, so the balanced battery level would allow less deployment. So, there was nothing definitive we could draw from that.

Here’s Red Bull’s technical director Pierre Wache from the second day of running: “It’s difficult to say where we are, but we are not the benchmark for sure. We clearly see the top three teams; Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren are in front of us. It looks like, from what our analysis is, that we are behind.”

Verstappen backed up his tech director, saying, “Just wait until Melbourne and see how much power [Mercedes] suddenly find. I already know that right now.”

Leclerc’s Thursday run was very impressive in the Ferrari, significantly faster than Lando Norris‘ McLaren running on the same day. But there was no comparable Red Bull long run, with Isack Hadjar stuck in the garage for much of the day. Nor did Mercedes do a proper long run on that day.

On Friday, Lewis Hamilton took over the Ferrari and on his long run was doing much the same times as Leclerc from the day before – and again the Ferrari was quicker than the (Mercedes-powered) McLaren – Piastri’s this time. But there was a car which did a faster long run that day than Hamilton – the Mercedes of Kimi Antonelli. It was brought up short by a red flag but appeared to be a genuine race sim up to that point.

McLaren’s Andrea Stella has perhaps seen something which gives him a different take. After the third day he commented, “Ferrari’s pace is quite impressive on the long runs. I can confirm that today [Friday] Hamilton and Antonelli were faster than us.”

So, on those impressive long runs, how did the Mercedes and Ferrari deployment compare to the Red Bull’s? We don’t know for sure. The Red Bull didn’t do a comparable run on that day. But that Wednesday Verstappen run did look ominous in terms of how long the battery deployment could be maintained. What we are left with is: was that because of the Mercedes ICE being turned down more? But does that mean Ferrari was turned down too? Because there was little difference between the Mercedes and Ferrari deployment duration.

Let’s see if there are any further clues this week or whether nothing will be revealed until Melbourne.