How Kimi Antonelli can win the 2026 F1 championship at the next race in the US

Kimi Antonelli can win the Formula 1 World Championship at the very next race in the United States after extending his title lead once more at the Singapore Grand Prix.

With a 102 point advantage, and a maximum of 150 points to be won, the Mercedes driver is closing in on the trophy. Victory at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) could secure that as soon as October 25 if his team-mate George Russell finishes ninth or lower, and Lewis Hamilton can’t end the race in at least fourth place.

Even Antonelli seemed surprised when told of the news after his third-place finish at Marina Bay. “Can I, really!?” he exclaimed.

With Russell’s recent fortunes, championship victory in the US isn’t unthinkable: the last two rounds have seen him pulling over to the side of the track in Malaysia with power unit failure; spinning out of the lead of the Singapore sprint race and hitting the wall, then finishing ninth in the Grand Prix after starting from the back, having had to take another engine penalty.

However, based on both drivers’ average scoring rates, it’s more likely that Antonelli will be crowned at the Mexico City Grand Prix on November 1 when he’ll be 20 years and 68 days old; he would be the youngest F1 champion in history, taking that accolade from Sebastian Vettel by more than three years.

He won’t be sizing up a bigger trophy cabinet just yet: nothing can be taken for granted in F1. There are still six drivers mathematically in contention for the title, although nothing short of a catastrophe would see any of Antonelli’s rivals winning – even given Max Verstappen’s track record of comebacks.

Here is how the 2026 title can be decided, from the most likely outcome to the unprecedented scenarios that would need a minor miracle.

Who can still win the 2026 F1 championship?

While six drivers might be in contention, that list is likely to get much shorter very quickly.

If Antonelli wins the US Grand Prix, all but Lewis Hamilton and George Russell would be eliminated from the title race, no matter where they finish.

Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc are in a particularly precarious situation, trailing as they are by 139 and 125 points respectively. If they don’t gain on Antonelli at the next race, they will be out of contention.

F1 championship points after Round 17, Singapore GP

When can Antonelli win the F1 championship?

US Grand Prix, October 25 POSSIBLE

Only victory at the US Grand Prix would give Antonelli the opportunity to win the world championship at COTA, and he’d also be relying on his two closest rivals to struggle. If his team-mate finishes ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton is fifth or worse then that would give Antonelli an insurmountable championship lead of at least 125 points, with 125 remaining to be won.

In this scenario, Antonelli would be champion in the event of a points tie because he’d always have more race wins than anybody else.

Mexico City Grand Prix, November 1 LIKELY

Antonelli has scored an average of 18.3 points at the 17 grands prix so far this season, and Russell has scored 12. Those figures have remained fairly steady since the Belgian Grand Prix in July.

If that trend continues, Antonelli become world champion in two races’ time in Mexico when, going by the averages, he would have 376 points to Russell’s 262; an unassailable gap with just four races and 100 points left.

That projection has Antonelli finishing the season on 449 points, 139 points ahead of Russell – an impressive margin that allows plenty of room for errors or mechanical misfortune. For example, if he fails to score in the US and Mexico, while rivals continue amassing points at their average rate, then he would still be crowned at the following Sao Paulo GP, by scoring an average 18 points.

While the projected winning margin is large, it is nowhere near the 290 points between world champion Verstappen and second-placed Sergio Perez in 2023.

How can George Russell win the F1 championship?

It’s unlikely that Russell will be contemplating his slim chances of title success, given that he’ll have to take another engine penalty and start from the back of the grid once more this season: it’s not completely over but the odds are so long that we’re now obliged to phrase it as “mathematically possible”.

The maths isn’t the difficult bit: Russell has to outscore Antonelli by 102 points over the next six grands prix; an average of 17 points each weekend. Given his average score per race is over six points behind Antonelli, it would require some swing in performance.

If Russell wins every remaining grand prix, he’ll finish on 388 points and would need Antonelli to finish sixth or lower in each round to take the title. In this instance, Russell would have more wins than Antonelli (nine to eight) and so would win in the event of a tie.

Given Russell’s recent form and the likelihood of having to take another engine penalty, Antonelli is unlikely to be losing much sleep over this scenario.

And Hamilton?

If Hamilton won his eighth world championship in 2026, the feat would surpass anything he’s achieved so far. Six wins from six would just be the start: Antonelli would then have to finish an average of seventh or lower in each race, which would give him the title by at least three points.

Max Verstappen: another epic comeback?

Last year Max Verstappen overturned a 104 point deficit to title leader Oscar Piastri, finishing four points ahead of him in the title race and two behind Lando Norris, as his Red Bull came good at the end of the season.

This year that pattern looks set to repeat after his first victory of the season in Sepang, followed by a sprint race and Grand Prix double win in Singapore. The omens are positive; the championship table is less so.

Last year, Verstappen needed nine races to draw level with Piastri. This year, he only has six remaining – and is 119 points down to Antonelli.

Let’s imagine that his Red Bull is just as fast at the varying circuits that remain on the calendar and he can win all six races. Antonelli would have to score 31 points or fewer if Verstappen was to claim a fifth title.

Even on current form it looks like an impossible task. Verstappen’s victories over the past three grands prix have seen him outscore Antonelli by 28 points, but that’s an average of nine points per race weekend; less than half of the rate that he needs.

The others?

Leclerc and Norris’s slim hopes rest on unimaginable bad luck for Antonelli and their other rivals, while they go on to win every race in a scenario that seems pure fiction.

What if the final races are cancelled?

Unrest in the Middle East raises the possibility of the final two rounds – Qatar and Abu Dhabi – being cancelled. F1 is understood to have retained Imola as a reserve, which would mean 25 fewer points available this season.

With 125 points remaining, that would end Norris and Leclerc’s hopes on the spot and put Antonelli on course to win the title at the next race at Circuit of the Americas,

Only if Russell outscored him by three points or more; Hamilton by 12 or more; or Verstappen won with Antonelli eighth or lower would the title race go to Mexico.

However, the achievement may not be known at the time. F1 is adamant that the final two rounds of the year will go ahead, so if a cancellation is announced late in the year, Antonelli may have been champion without realising it.

Remaining races in the 2026 F1 season