Would Cadillac gain or lose by replacing Bottas with Herta?

Cadillac has a decision to make about its second driver for 2027, with Valtteri Bottas‘s position not as secure as it once appeared.

Colton Herta is emerging as a possible replacement – as his repeated FP1 outings to secure a superlicence suggest – offering the American team an opportunity to put a homegrown driver in its car.

But after a disappointing Formula 2 campaign, is he really the right choice – and couldn’t Cadillac find someone better?

Cadillac’s first season in Formula 1 has not been short of challenges, and having recruited two experienced grand prix winners in Sergio Perez and Bottas for its debut, it now has to decide whether that approach remains the best way forward.

Perez’s future is settled, with the Mexican signing a multi-year extension that will keep him at the team beyond 2026. Bottas, however, has received no such confirmation, leaving the door open for a change alongside him next season.

Herta appears to be the obvious alternative.

The American has been part of Cadillac’s driver programme throughout its first season and has been working towards securing the necessary superlicence points to make the step up.

There is an obvious appeal to having an American driver in an American team, particularly given the manufacturer’s ambitions in its home market.

But there are reasons to question whether promoting Herta would be the right move, not least his struggles in F2. And if Cadillac has decided that Bottas is no longer the driver it needs, it should surely be asking whether Herta is the best available replacement rather than simply the most appealing one.

The uncertainty over Cadillac’s driver line-up comes amid wider questions about the team’s future.

Mark Walter, who controls the operation through TWG Global, is reportedly exploring a sale of his stake, with Liverpool owner Fenway Sports Group among those to have held discussions about a potential investment.

The team is said to be valued at around $3bn (£2.26bn) – whether any potential buyer agrees is another matter. No deal has been agreed and TWG has denied that a sale is imminent. It adds another layer of intrigue to a project that is still finding its feet in Formula 1, barely a season after finally securing its place on the grid.

Why Bottas is under pressure

Bottas arrived at Cadillac with an important role to play. After a year away from racing as Mercedes‘ reserve driver, he brought extensive experience of 10 grand prix victories with a championship-winning team and an understanding of what is required to build a competitive operation.

Those qualities were particularly valuable to a new manufacturer entering Formula 1 from scratch.

Cadillac needed drivers capable of helping it establish its procedures, develop its car and provide reliable technical feedback as it found its feet.

But the Finn’s first season has been very difficult, and the comparison with Perez has increasingly worked against him, particularly as the season passed its halfway point.

Although the qualifying battle has been relatively close, with Perez holding an 11-8 advantage, the Mexican has had a much clearer edge on Sundays.

He has finished ahead of Bottas in 13 races, compared with four for the Finn, while the pair – especially Bottas – have suffered their share of reliability problems.

Bottas has been particularly unfortunate with retirements, recording 10 by the time of the Mexican Grand Prix, where his Sunday ended with a big crash after a spectacular suspension failure.

That makes it difficult to judge his performances purely through the results, especially in a car that has struggled for both speed and reliability.

Nevertheless, the difference between the two drivers has become difficult to ignore in the last races.

Bottas’s struggles were particularly apparent in Singapore, where Perez came close to lapping him.

The Finn admitted he was struggling to find the pace, describing it as a ‘million-dollar question’ when asked to explain the gap.

Cadillac team principal Marcin Budkowski has made it clear that Bottas needs to deliver more consistently. His performance in Austin was encouraging, but the team wants to see that level week after week.

There is also an important distinction between Bottas’s contribution to the team’s development and his performance on the track.

Cadillac can value his experience and technical input while still questioning whether he is extracting enough from the car.

The team must also be careful not to mistake the limitations of its machinery for shortcomings on the part of its drivers, regardless of whether it’s running alone at the back.

Cadillac has repeatedly acknowledged that it is not yet providing its drivers with the equipment they need to show their full potential.

Replacing Bottas would therefore be a significant decision, particularly for a team that initially prioritised experience when choosing its first ever driver line-up.

The attraction of Herta

There is little doubt that Herta would bring something different to Cadillac.

A nine-time IndyCar race winner and runner-up in the 2024 championship, he established himself as one of the leading American drivers of his generation.

His decision to leave IndyCar and move to Europe for a season in F2 was a significant gamble, showing how seriously he has taken his ambition to reach F1.

His nationality is the big attraction. Cadillac has never hidden its desire to have an American driver, and putting Herta in the car would give the team a compelling story to tell in its biggest market.

Budkowski has acknowledged that having an American driver is important to the project, while insisting that timing and merit must also be considered.

There are also signs that Cadillac has been impressed by Herta’s work in its F1 car. He has taken part in several Friday practice sessions and has been involved in simulator development, giving the team an opportunity to assess his potential beyond his disappointing F2 results.

But the question is whether that is enough to justify promoting him.

Herta’s superlicence situation has been another complication. An error in the published 2025 IndyCar standings meant he was one point short of the required 40 after his Mexican GP practice appearance. Cadillac is giving him another opportunity in Brazil to complete the necessary mileage and secure the final point.

That would remove the formal obstacle to an F1 seat, but it would not answer the more important question of whether he is ready for one.

Disappointing F2 season raises questions

Herta’s move to Formula 2 was supposed to prove that he could adapt to European single-seater racing and make the final step towards F1. Instead, it has exposed the difficulties involved in the transition.

With two rounds remaining, he sits 19th in the championship with just 26 points. That is a long way short of the top-10 finish Cadillac CEO Dan Towriss had identified as a target for his development.

There are mitigating circumstances. Herta arrived in a series populated by drivers who have spent much of their careers working towards Formula 1, having built his reputation in a very different racing environment. He has also had to learn unfamiliar circuits, tyres and procedures while balancing his F2 campaign with his Cadillac responsibilities.

His IndyCar record shouldn’t be dismissed because of one difficult season in Europe. Winning nine races in that championship and finishing second in 2024 demonstrates considerable skill.

But F2 was an opportunity to prove that he could make the transition to the European single-seater ladder, and he has not taken it particularly convincingly.

If Cadillac is serious about selecting its drivers on merit, it will need to explain why a 19th-place finish represents enough evidence of readiness.

There is also a question of what happens next. Herta has indicated that another F2 season is not his preferred option, leaving Cadillac with a potentially awkward decision if it doesn’t end up promoting him.

It could give him more time in its own machinery, but that would be a development programme rather than a promotion justified by his results.

Can’t Cadillac find someone better?

Perhaps the biggest question is why Cadillac would limit its thinking to Bottas and Herta in the first place.

The team will enter its second season with the backing of a major manufacturer and has the resources and ambition to attract established talent, even if its first-season struggles can be a deterrent right now. If it believes Bottas is no longer the right driver, there should be other drivers interested in taking his place.

Yuki Tsunoda is one possibility. The Japanese driver has considerably more F1 experience than Herta and has demonstrated that he can be competitive at the highest level, although his own career has been far from straightforward. He has been linked with Cadillac as he looks for a route back to a permanent race seat.

Esteban Ocon has also been mentioned, having lost his Haas drive. He brings race-winning experience and a substantial F1 record, although his own recent performances and the circumstances surrounding his exit from Haas would need to be considered.

Another interesting alternative is Frederik Vesti. The Mercedes reserve driver finished runner-up in Formula 2 in 2023 and has already established a relationship with Cadillac through its endurance racing programme.

He also impressed during his Mexican GP FP1 appearance for Mercedes, finishing third and just 0.074sec behind team-mate Kimi Antonelli. George Russell subsequently suggested that Vesti deserved an opportunity, acknowledging his efforts to secure a Cadillac seat.

Vesti would still be a relatively inexperienced choice, having never started a grand prix, but his junior single-seater record is considerably more persuasive than Herta’s current F2 campaign. He also offers an existing connection with Cadillac and experience of working within a leading F1 team.

None of these alternatives is necessarily a guaranteed upgrade but they illustrate why Cadillac should be looking beyond the obvious American candidate.

The team’s options are not unlimited, with most of the 2027 grid already settled, and there may not be an established front-running driver available. Even so, it could illustrate the downsides of using a particular nationality to dictate its decision.

An important decision

There is a perfectly reasonable argument for giving Herta a chance.

Cadillac needs to build an identity, and an American driver would help connect the team with its home audience. He had a strong racing record before F2, has shown commitment to reaching Formula 1 and has already spent a season working with the team.

But there is a difference between wanting an American driver and needing to promote Herta immediately.