The fastest F1 car at COTA? Everyone is pointing somewhere else

F1
Mark Hughes
October 23, 2026

Mark Hughes on why the usual pre-race denials have reached a new dimension in Austin, with Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes each insisting someone else will be the team to beat

AUSTIN, TEXAS - OCTOBER 22: Andrea Kimi Antonelli of Italy and Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team has a seat fit in the garage during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas

Mercedes will stick with the latest upgrade at COTA

Getty Images

Mark Hughes
October 23, 2026

There’s always a game between the top teams of denying they are the fastest and saying it is one of their rivals which is truly the pace setter. It might be a way of trying to remove pressure from themselves and switching it to the rival. More likely, it’s just the competitive mindset: assume nothing and approach the weekend as if you are on the back foot and therefore really need to dig deep.

But although that game was very much in evidence on the eve of this weekend’s US Grand Prix, it does have extra relevance this time. Because there are many reasons why the class of the field this weekend might be Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes. Probably not McLaren, given its recent struggles, but don’t even discount that possibility, so volatile is the form book according to the demands of each track.

Isack Hadjar, for one, does not believe Red Bull is currently the fastest, despite Max Verstappen having won the last two races from pole. “In Malaysia, it was dominant,” he concedes. “But I don’t think in Singapore it was the fastest car. That’s what I believe. I think if you put Max in the Ferrari, he would have won the race with more margin. So that’s my opinion. In Singapore, I think the Ferrari was the fastest car. Max qualified on pole by half a tenth. Ferrari didn’t have new soft tyres in the race, so this has an effect as well. So, Max put all the chances on his side, and he made the difference in Q3, and that was enough.”

The Red Bull, says Hadjar, is still a difficult drive. It may also be significant that the shifting ground beneath the COTA track has made it very bumpy. The Ferrari has historically handled the bumps better than the Red Bull.

AUSTIN, TEXAS - OCTOBER 22: Isack Hadjar of France and Oracle Red Bull Racing talks with his teammates in the garage during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas

Hadjar believes Verstappen would have been more dominant in a Ferrari in Singapore

Red Bull

Let’s take a reading from a neutral, McLaren’s Oscar Piastri: “I think on the data analysis, they’re always the quickest or joint-quickest in basically every corner this year. But they lose on all the straights, whether that’s from drag or power, I don’t know. But certainly we expected Ferrari to be the benchmark in Singapore, but we’ve expected them to be the benchmark at other circuits and it’s not turned out to be the case. I think they’re very strong. But I also think clearly Red Bull was very strong. Both stronger than us for sure! So, yes, I think over the last few weeks Red Bull has definitely become, I would say, the most consistently quick car. But I think each weekend the challenges are kind of rotating.”

Lewis Hamilton’s not buying into the Ferrari favourite theory. “Red Bull have done an amazing job for many, many years. They continuously surprise me. I’m full of admiration for them. I put my hand up that many, many years ago when I was younger I was like, ‘There’s no way they’re going to be able to do what these other teams, like McLaren with all that heritage and Ferrari with all that heritage, can do.’ But they have, and they’ve proved me wrong. They’ve continued to have amazing success over the years. But this one, [making their own] engine… I was like, ‘There’s no way that anyone’s going to build a better engine than what Mercedes, for example, or Ferrari are capable of doing with the resources and experience they have, and the IP.’ And yet again, they proved us all wrong again. They built the best engine. They’ve had the best engine this year.

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“Obviously, they had a little bit of a wobbly start. But, like you saw last year, they’ve got an amazing car. They’ve got great drivers. They’ve clearly got great leadership. And I think they will be very, very hard to… They’re just as quick through all the corners as us in the last race, and that’s been our strength. So, they’ve matched us now through the corners, and they’re three or four tenths quicker down the straights. We have a very, very small upgrade this weekend. It’s less than a tenth. It’s like half a tenth. So, I don’t think that propels us forward enough to necessarily challenge that deficit. But maybe the track suits our car, and maybe they’ll have a one-off weekend. Maybe Mercedes will have an off weekend again, and we’ll be right there to take it.”

Mercedes? It has committed both cars to the so-far problematic upgraded specification. Kimi Antonelli made progress with it through the Singapore weekend and there is a feeling within the team that it has arrived at a better understanding of how to run it. If that means lifting the car up a little to give it the balance range it was lacking, even at the expense of some downforce, then maybe Austin will be a great track for it, because the bumps are probably going to ensure everyone has to lift their cars.

That’s how it’s poised before the cars have turned a wheel.

Mark Hughes

Grand Prix editor

In previous lives Mark raced cars, worked at Jim Russell racing school, got a university degree which he never used, tried working in industry, didn’t like it, left and joined Motoring News in 1988 as a junior club race reporter. Went freelance in ’96, concentrated on F1 from 2000. Grand Prix editor of Autosport for 10 years.

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