Who will be 2024 MotoGP champ?

MotoGP

A winter of a thousand questions, many of which will finally be answered in Qatar this weekend, including which rider will make the most of Michelin’s all-new compounds? Mat Oxley analyses the season ahead

Red Bull Jorge Martin

Just because Jorge Martin is the lead photo in this blog doesn’t mean I’m betting on him! He just looks great on a motorcycle

Red Bull

The simple answer to the above question is this: whoever makes the best of the available grip.

It has always been so, but especially during the last few decades. The performance of engines, chassis, electronics and so on have reached such an advanced state that grip is what makes pretty much all the difference between winning and losing.

And never more so than in spec-tyre racing. Why? Because everything goes through the tyres and if everyone has the same tyres the winner is the rider and team that extract the most grip from those tyres, rather than the rider who gets a special overnight tyre flown in for race day.

“In the end everything depends on the tyres, because they are the most important parts of the motorcycle,” says Riccardo Savin, the factory Ducati team’s chief MotoGP vehicle dynamicist. “The target of vehicle dynamics is to get the whole motorcycle to deliver the best power and handle the tyres.”

Many fans don’t like spec tyre racing, because they think open competition is better. But Jeremy Burgess – the most successful MotoGP crew chief of all time – prefers spec tyres. Why?

“Because they force you to work on the bike,” he says. “When we could use whatever tyres we wanted we could fix a bike problem by throwing a special tyre at the bike – that did our job for us.”

It’s the same with riders.

Marc Márquez won the first four titles of MotoGP’s Michelin era largely because he could get more out of the front tyre than anyone else. When he reached the tyre’s limit and the tyre started sliding he could keep pushing while controlling the slide with his skills, knees and elbows. In the same situation most of his rivals usually crashed.

Michelin MotoGP 2024

Michelin has new front and rear compounds for 2024, which could change the dynamics of the racing

Michelin

And remember 2017, when Andrea Dovizioso started winning lots of races on the factory Ducati? That was because Dovi and his crew chief Alby Giribuola realised that Michelin’s softer rear slicks could last longer than the harder options, which is the opposite of what you’d expect. But it worked because the softer, grippier tyre caused less wheelspin than the harder, less grippy tyre. That gave Dovi a crucial advantage over race distance, so long as he rode with his head and used a gentle throttle hand, which he always did.

It’s a rule of the sport that motorcycle racing never gets simpler. As people learn more and chase smaller advantages the racing only ever gets more complicated. Which is why you hear people discussing details they never would have discussed a few years ago.

Consider Jorge Martin, last year’s championship runner-up and arguably the rider with the most raw speed. The Pramac Ducati rider plays with rear grip to create his greatest weapon – firing out of corners like a bullet from a gun – but he doesn’t manage grip and wheelspin with the throttle…

“I move my body a lot and do a lot with lean angle, trying to adjust grip or find grip,” he says.

And it goes even deeper than that, because riders and teams are now into micro-details and micro-micro details.

For example, during a recent visit to Michelin’s MotoGP laboratory at Clermont-Ferrand an engineer explained how tyres change according to temperature.

Ducati Mat Ox

If testing was racing, Bagnaia would be 2024 world champ by now. He’s certainly strong enough but needs to stay healthy, which isn’t easy now

Dorna

The engineer gave us an unmounted, room-temperature rear slick, which was as hard as a wooden table. Then he gave us a slick that had been heated to ninety degrees (the same temperature reached with tyre warmers) and it felt like a bendy toy.

No great surprise there.

Now consider what effect this has on track – with the tyre, the motorcycle and the rider.

When a rider attacks a corner the edge of his rear slick will already be hot, around 110C. By the time he’s stressed the tyre through the corner (pulling up to 1.6 lateral G) and opened the throttle the tyre will have reached 140C.

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That changes the tyre’s rigidity, so the tyre and therefore the whole bike will feel different from the start of the corner to the end of the corner. And the rider must compensate accordingly.

It’s even more extreme when going from right to left or vice-versa, because the difference in temperature between each side of the tyre can vary by as much as 60C, so the tyre, and therefore the bike, will behave differently in lefts and rights.

In other words, the tyres and bike may feel different in every corner, so the rider must log this info, understand what’s happening and adjust his technique to get the best out of the bike at every corner. Not a simple process.

By the way, if a rider gets too much wheelspin exiting a corner the rear tyre can reach 200C. That’s when you see smoke!

In spec-tyre racing the rider cannot ask the tyre manufacturer for a special tyre to band aid his problems. The rider and his crew have one job – to tweak the bike and his riding technique to maximise the performance available from tyres, while Michelin looks on.

“It’s a bit like being invited to a party and watching everyone else have all the fun,” grins Michelin motor sport director Matthieu Bonardel.

This year, however, Michelin’s MotoGP engineers will bring something new to the party. They have all-new compounds for their front and rear slicks, cooked up by their chemists at Clermont-Ferrand.

Michelin

How heat changes tyres: left tyre is cold, like a wooden table. Right tyre has been heated to 90C, like a bendy toy

Will the new compounds upset the status quo? Lap times in pre-season testing suggest not, but testing isn’t racing.

What we do know is that when you change a tyre spec you may change everything. That’s what happened in 2020, when Michelin’s softer-construction rear slick brought the reign of established stars like Valentino Rossi, Andrea Dovizioso and Danilo Petrucci to an end, because they couldn’t adapt their more aggressive styles to the tyre, while MotoGP’s new generation of Joan Mir, Fabio Quartararo and Bagnaia did exactly that.

One of the aims of Michelin’s 2024 chemistry is to create harder, more enduring compounds that also grip better, which may just ease the tyre pressure problems that have caused so much controversy in recent seasons. The new compounds have been used throughout testing – all the riders say the new rubbers improve consistency and half of them say they also improve grip.

“The goal with this new compound technology was different for the front and the rear,” says Michelin MotoGP engineer Romain Cacheux. “The goal for the rear was consistency, the goal for the front was more about being able to make the hard-plus tyre.”

The idea of the hard-plus is that the harder compound will make the tyre less susceptible to building pressure, so riders won’t be caught so badly between a rock and a hard place – between going too high and losing some footprint and going too low and getting disqualified. However, the hard-plus won’t be available until April’s Spanish GP.

“With the previous technology when we wanted to go harder with the compound to support the motorcycle better, we lost a bit of feedback and grip,” adds Cacheux. “That’s why we needed to change the chemistry to access stiffer compounds, without losing any grip or feedback.”

F1 Pressure Race 2023

Race front-tyre pressure – averaged across the entire grid – in 2023. The rule became mandatory from Silverstone, so pressures increased to avoid penalties, but Michelin say there were fewer crashes and more new lap records after the British GP

In fact Michelin says it’s done tests that prove the loss of grip when running the front at 2.1 bar instead of 1.9 bar (roughly, the upper and lower limits ) is only 0.05 mu, worth around one hundredth of a second per lap.

“So what the riders complained about isn’t a loss of grip but about the change of tyre feeling,” explains Cacheux.

This may be true to a point, but last year plenty of riders did tell me they had more locking and tucking at higher pressures. They just got used to it and adapted their techniques, because they’re geniuses.

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Michelin also showed us data that claims there were fewer crashes and more lap records broken after the rule was introduced. Also, I think the racing got better in the latter half of the season, but that’s just my own feeling and obviously other factors may have been involved.

Michelin has recently made another change to help riders avoid going under pressure. For 2024 it has reduced the legal minimum from 1.88 bar to 1.80 bar, because it wants to avoid riders getting disqualified.

“We decided to make this change so that teams can play between 1.8 to 2.1, which gives them more margin to avoid penalties,” says Michelin’s bike racing boss Piero Taramasso. “I think we will soon forget about this rule.”

Let’s hope so.

Next year Michelin will finally introduce an all-new front slick, designed to further reduce the pressure issue, which has been exacerbated by the extra loads created by downforce aero. The tyre will be made with the company’s top-secret C3M process – basically a giant 3D-printer – that already makes all rear slicks. This is the process used to make Michelin’s famous overnight tyres a couple of decades ago.

The 2025 front slick first appeared at last month’s Sepang tests, but only five riders tried it, because that’s racers for you: they’re only interested in next weekend, they’ll worry about next year later.

Yamaha Fabio Quartararo

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Yamaha

For this reason, Michelin wants one of this season’s post-race Monday tests dedicated solely to the 2025 front, so that all the riders can give their feedback to get the tyre right for next season.

Who do I really think will win the 2024 MotoGP championship? I never do predictions, because my job isn’t to predict what will happen over the weekend but to go sniffing around the garages after the races to find out what happened and why.

Also, one of the delights of motorcycle racing is that it’s so unpredictable, while one of the agonies of the sport is that it’s so easy to get hurt. Thus MotoGP predictions are no more than guesses, because everything can change in a wrong tyre choice or the snap of an ankle.

Maybe it’ll be Pecco Bagnaia again, or Martin, or Enea Bastianini, or maybe Aprilia will find its way and it’ll be Aleix Espargaró, or maybe KTM will make the final step and it’ll be Brad Binder. Or Pedro Acosta. But I’m only guessing.

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