Could Mercedes have done anything differently to win Dutch GP? Data analysis

If his earlier damage wasn’t enough to ruin his race, then this made sure of it.

Red Bull pitted Perez on the same lap to cover off Sainz. The slow pitstop meant for an easy overtake on the Ferrari (as well as taking out one of its wheel guns).

Elsewhere at the front, Verstappen was opening a gap to Leclerc, the red dotted line showing how the Ferrari’s pace was starting to fall away from the Dutchman. Leclerc subsequently pitted and Verstappen followed suit on the next lap to cover off the threat of an undercut.

In no time at all, Verstappen was building the cushion again – lapping with superior pace compared to Leclerc. It seemed that Red Bull had the Ferrari threat well and truly covered. But what about Mercedes?

This was not a question that has featured much in the 2022 season, but on the banked and sandy slopes of Zandvoort, Mercedes was bringing the challenge to Red Bull, keeping close enough to ensure that Hamilton would take the lead if Verstappen stopped again.

 

Mercedes strategy strengthens its hand

Chart 2 Tyre Strategy Summary

All of Pirelli’s suggested tyre strategies, visible on the top four lines of the chart above, had the cars starting on soft tyres. It was Mercedes’ decision to start the race on the medium tyre that set it up to be a threat in the race.

As seen above, both Russell and Hamilton were able to go much deeper into the race compared to Verstappen and Leclerc who started on the soft tyre.

This put both drivers in a more comfortable position to perform a one-stop strategy while maintaining the back-up option of completing a two-stop strategy if needed.

Red Bull was also able to complete a one-stop strategy, but its earlier stops meant that this would not be a comfortable undertaking, especially with Mercedes having a 13-14 lap advantage on the hard tyre.

It was likely then that Red Bull would opt for a two-stop strategy – requiring Verstappen to overcome a pitstop deficit and make an on-track overtake for the lead. Mercedes was in a good position.

 

Safety car smashes the suspense

Chart 3 Trend race pace compared

Smoothing out the lap-by-lap time fluctuations offers a clearer picture of each drivers’ pace in relation to the others. Immediately obvious above is how the first stint on mediums set Mercedes up to lap almost 0.7sec per lap faster than Verstappen on the hard tyre.

Hamilton was most impressive in the first stint, while Russell was extracting more pace on the hard tyres in the second stint.

Chart 3 also highlights how Leclerc in the Ferrari was consistently lagging behind the Red Bull, putting him out of the fight for victory.

The suspense was building as the race headed to the final showdown; Red Bull with a decision to make on which strategic lever it would pull in its bid to win.

But then Yuki Tsunoda’s AlphaTauri broke down and the intrigue evaporated, as a virtual safety car gave Verstappen the opportunity to pit with little risk of losing the lead. As it happened, he changed to hard tyres and the Mercedes drivers followed him in, switching to mediums.

Why did Mercedes opt to pit again? Since Verstappen had gained a time advantage from pitting under the virtual safety car, Mercedes chose a grip advantage in the hope of still challenging for the win.

Chart 3 points to this strategy having legs, as both Silver Arrows had better pace compared to Verstappen on the third stint. But this was short-lived, as a broken-down Bottas soon brought out the full course safety car and bunched up the field.

With a substantial gap to the rest of the pack, and both Mercedes on the medium tyres, Red Bull and Verstappen rolled the dice and traded track position for soft tyres under the full course safety car. Leclerc would follow suit on the same lap and Russell would follow the trend, albeit a lap afterward. Hamilton was the only one to stay out on the medium tyre, ahead of Verstappen.

So why did Mercedes pit Russell and not Hamilton? Firstly, it’s worth a reminder that Russell pushed for softs and Mercedes complied with the request – as heard on team radio.

Secondly, as was the case for Charles Leclerc in Silverstone earlier in this year, Hamilton’s position as race leader meant that he would be outmanoeuvred no matter what he did.

Mercedes elected to not pit either driver in the first instance – therefore prioritising track position. Red Bull saw this and decided to do the opposite – that is to pit for soft tyres and prioritise being on the right tyre. On the following lap, Russell swapped his tyres due to concerns relating to tyre warm up – but yielded position to Verstappen as a result.

Realistically, it was already too late for either Russell or Hamilton to do anything: pitting Hamilton as well (or even Hamilton instead of Russell) would have simply created a situation where they were on the same tyre but behind Verstappen.

Remember, Mercedes’ bid for victory was based on taking a different approach, since it didn’t have the all-out pace to challenge Red Bull in a square fight. Unless Hamilton pitted at the start of the safety car and Verstappen stayed out, the offset scenario would just not exist.

 

Safety car restart and Hamilton’s mistake

Chart 4 Hamilton and Verstappen restart telemetry

As the safety car period ended, Hamilton shepherded the field toward the final corner and then hit the throttle close to the apex of Turn 13. His throttle trace can be seen leaping to 100% at that point in Chart 4 above.

Hamilton had the jump on Verstappen in the very early phases of the restart as shown in the left arrow in the throttle trace. But the Briton had to be more tentative due to the cooler temperatures and lower grip of the medium tyre. Verstappen, on the other hand, had a smoother and faster ascent to wide open throttle thanks to the tyres being in a better operating window and benefitting from more grip.

But the nail in the coffin came from Hamilton’s own hand – after using the incorrect PU setting for the safety car restart that left him down on power. This can be seen in the fact that Hamilton is at full throttle but losing significant top speed to Verstappen without the help of DRS or a slipstream.

Verstappen’s speed was such that he had to back off towards to the end of the lap to ensure he made the overtake after the line. The battle was over just as it got started.

Turning back to Chart 3, and the slope comparison between laps 60 and 72 tell you all you need to know. Hamilton’s pace profile was inferior to the others that had pitted for the soft tyre by quite some margin. Therefore all the “what-if” scenarios for Mercedes were likely a redundant exercise – with Verstappen having the pace in hand to comfortably challenge for the lead, even if he hadn’t passed at the first opportunity.

Mercedes lost its chance when the virtual safety car was called, with its hesitation to immediately pit for the soft tyres not helping the cause – rather than being the reason for its demise.

But what Chart 3 also reveals is that Russell’s decision to pit for the soft tyres was absolutely the right call to make, as keeping him on the mediums to support Hamilton would likely have resulted in double the pain and a likely P3-P4 outcome rather than the P2-P4 they earned in reality.

 

Mercedes’ exceptional tyre management

Chart 5 Tyre degradation comparison

It’s worth reiterating that Mercedes’ challenge was born out of its decision to start on the medium tyre – which was in turn dependent on its ability to manage degradation.

Chart 5 showcases how Russell and Hamilton produced exceptional results in this regard, having some of the lowest degradation coefficients amongst the top three teams, calculated by stripping out the effect of the cars’ reducing fuel load

Hard tyre performance for Leclerc needs to be taken with grain of salt due to the timing of his pitstop near the virtual safety car, while Verstappen’s short stint on the hard tyre also produces an anomalous result.

Both Mercedes drivers performed strongly while Perez and Sainz lagged their team-mates considerably in tyre preservation.

Ultimately, Mercedes made a valiant play for the win but the two safety car periods put the conclusion out of its hands. Despite this, Zandvoort was a big result for the team as it usurped Ferrari: no mean feat considering where it started its season.

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