Does Antonelli risk burning out? - What to watch for at the Hungarian GP

As the 2025 Formula 1 season reaches its pivotal final race before the summer break, the Hungarian Grand Prix presents a crucial psychological battleground, especially for McLaren team-mates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.

Tight finishes in Austria, Silverstone, and Spa have underscored just how razor-thin the margin is between these two title contenders, where every detail, minor mistakes or strategic calls, can tip the balance.

Securing the championship lead heading into the break will not only boost confidence but could also provide a vital mental edge in what promises to be an intense intra-team rivalry for the remainder of the season.

Besides the title battle between Piastri and Norris, Hungary will also highlight Kimi Antonelli’s pressure to rebound, Ferrari’s gradual progress with its new suspension upgrade, and Mercedes’ ongoing struggles to find solution to its issues.

Who will gain the psychological edge at the summer break?

Recent races have shown just how tight the margin between victory and defeat are for Piastri and Norris, with the smallest of factors affecting which of the two finishes in front.

As the championship battle is now a two-horse race between the McLaren duo, any slip-up could prove costly, even though there are still many, many races to go.

Equally, holding the championship lead as the paddock pauses for the summer break could have a big psychological significance for either driver.

If Piastri stays where he is, he’ll maintain his momentum and validate his status as the leading McLaren driver, particularly if he can outscore Norris again in Hungary.

Heading into the break at the top of the standings would allow him to enjoy several weeks of confidence, bolstered by the mental edge of knowing he has held off his closest rival in back-to-back races.

For Norris, overcoming Piastri at the Hungaroring would be equally significant. If he somehow manages to seize the championship lead, then this would be a decisive moment in the title race

There’s no consistent historical evidence to suggest that leading the championship going into the summer break is likely to secure the crown, but the immediate psychological boost and instilled self-belief can prove invaluable, especially since momentum is so often a deciding factor in close, intra-team battles like McLaren’s.

Can Antonelli turn things around in time?

Kimi Antonelli is not the only current Formula 1 driver struggling to find form amid a dismal run of results but there are several factors that make his case particularly worrying for Mercedes after the season passed the halfway point.

The 18-year-old’s rise to a race seat in place of Lewis Hamilton was seen as a bold move given both his youth and his sometimes inconsistent form in Formula 2.

While he has shown flashes of promise this year with a pole position and podium finish, Antonelli appears to have entered a descending spiral, and the Belgian GP weekend was widely regarded as the weakest of his rookie season yet.

The pressure he’s under at such a young age is probably reflected in his results, particularly as Mercedes has lost ground to Ferrari in three consecutive races now, and the intense atmosphere is unlikely to be helped by the lack of a contract, even though Mercedes boss Toto Wolff said his intention was to keep both Antonelli and George Russell.

Added to this, Antonelli is almost 100 points behind Russell in the championship table: a constant reminder of his troubled first season. The real test will be whether Antonelli can turn his struggles and mistakes into actual progress.

For now, both Antonelli’s trajectory and Mercedes’ ultimate satisfaction with its decision remain open questions, but time is running out to find the answers before the team has to commit to choosing its 2026 line-up.

Has Ferrari made real progress?

Ferrari’s much-anticipated rear suspension upgrade finally made its debut at Spa, but the team’s hopes that it would unleash the hidden potential of its car didn’t quite materialise.

The new suspension was aimed at improving the persistent ride-height and handling issues the Scuderia has suffered from this year.

It features a re-optimised rear suspension geometry with changes to wishbone fairings, intended to stabilise the car’s aerodynamic platform and enable more flexible set-up options, especially at low-ride heights.

On track, Ferrari saw a modest improvement, particularly from Charles Leclerc, who managed to outqualify and beat Max Verstappen in the race on merit, something that hasn’t often been the case this year.

Leclerc admitted the change was taking the team in the right direction, but the 20-second gap to race winner Piastri suggests that the hidden potential Ferrari talked about simply wasn’t there. Or at least it’s not as significant as the Scuderia hoped.

Having said that, the condensed Spa weekend didn’t help in extracting the maximum from the new package, and Hungary might actually prove a more accurate reflection of what Ferrari can really do now.

A car that is less sensitive to ride height changes and delivers more stable downforce could be a big help around the Hungaroring’s tight, twisty corners.

The gap to McLaren is clearly too large for anyone to overcome at this point, but taking a step forward, even a small one, could help Ferrari in consolidating its position as the second-best team.

Will Mercedes meeting lead to answers?

Unfortunately for Mercedes, Antonelli’s situation is not the only issue it is currently facing, as the team appears to have lost its way and dropped to clear fourth fastest behind McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari.

Since its 1-3 result in Canada, everything has gone downhill for the team, which has scored just 21 points in the last three races. That’s less than a third of the 65 points that Ferrari scored and, thanks to Nico Hülkenberg’s Silverstone podium, is also less than Sauber’s points haul over the same period.

Mercedes appears to have taken a wrong turn in its recent development path, its latest upgrades making the car harder to drive. Russell has gone as far as suggesting that the performance drop is the result of the flexi-wing clampdown introduced at the Spanish Grand Prix.

The team is holding what Russell described as a “big meeting” ahead of the Hungarian GP in an attempt to get to the bottom of the situation, but with development coming to a halt as all teams concentrate on their 2026 cars, it remains to be seen how much will change between now and the end of the year.

Even in the cooler conditions at Spa, Mercedes was not a factor most of the weekend. That is not a great omen for Hungary, where the car’s persistent weaknesses in low-speed corners and tyre management in hotter conditions are likely to be on display.

Will the rain play a role?

Like at Spa, the weather could again play a role in Hungary, with a marked risk of rain on Saturday and Sunday threatening to shake up the competitive order.

While the opening days of the race weekend are set to be typically warm and mainly dry, the outlook for qualifying and race days is far less settled.

On Sunday, several forecasts indicate a significant chance of rain, with some predicting up to a 90% possibility of precipitation during the main event.

This shift from the usually consistent hot and dry summer conditions at the Hungaroring could add a significant unpredictability factor.

The circuit is notorious for being almost impossible to overtake on in normal conditions, so hopefully a wet race will scramble the order.

Although rain at the Hungaroring is rare, whenever it has struck, it has produced some of the most memorable and unpredictable races in the event’s history.

After a straightforward Spa race, fans will be hoping for a wet Hungaroring weekend for some of the excitement they were robbed of in Belgium, race direction permitting.