Secondly, he must come to terms with a car that hasn’t always given him what he needs. Having tried the CI discs at Suzuka in April, he didn’t switch to them until Barcelona after struggling with the consistency of the Brembo product. He’s also complained about power unit regulations that militate against his livewire style, dancing on the limit of traction at the rear, given such high-wire acts don’t gel with energy regimes that reward consistency even in qualifying. Just as Hamilton did last year, Leclerc feels neutered as a driver.

It’s not decided yet. Leclerc has endured a difficult spell, but he remains one of the fastest drivers, if not the fastest, in F1 over a single lap.

“Lewis will stop at nothing to make himself the epicentre of Ferrari.”

What’s more, even when struggling with the brakes his underlying pace has, at times, been a little faster than Hamilton’s. The raw materials are there, but he must weather this storm at a time when Hamilton is exerting a growing gravitational pull.

Leclerc still holds all of the cards, but the question is whether he plays them correctly or loses himself by not knowing how to react to Hamilton’s growing influence in the team. Leclerc is stunningly fast, over one lap and race distances, having also developed into a canny tyre-manager when needed, but the stress over radio communications and doubts about his influence over the engineering side of the team highlight cracks for Hamilton to exploit.

The battle will be no-holds-barred on the circuit, but off-track it likely won’t be one of animosity, instead a far more subtle one as the veteran legend stops at nothing to make himself the epicentre of Ferrari. What happens won’t only make or break Hamilton’s Ferrari dream, but also Leclerc’s.

McLAREN

Lando Norris vs Oscar Piastri

The conflict between Norris and Piastri was one of the defining narratives of 2025, but not this year. With McLaren no longer a regular race-winning threat, Norris’s Miami sprint victory aside, the rivalry between the pair has been relegated to a sub-plot. Norris triumphed in 2025 without landing the killer blow, but hostilities are on hold as the pair strive to help McLaren back to title-chasing form.

Despite that, there are hints that Norris has achieved a new level after winning last year’s title. He has an unusual psychology for a world champion, talking in the past of ‘imposter syndrome’ and lacking the rock-solid, in some cases irrational, self-confidence that has characterised many of the greats. That’s not a criticism or a limitation, but it does mark him out as different. Piastri is a cooler head, F1’s resident iceman, so how profound the psychological toll of losing last year is remains hidden.

Last year, Norris faced a similar situation to the one Russell is in now, starting the season as clear favourite, then being put on the back foot by the less experienced Piastri. You can also draw parallels with Leclerc, with Norris crashing in qualifying in Saudi Arabia trying to emulate Piastri’s ability to carry speed into Turn 4. Yet Norris, after hitting rock bottom when an engine failure hit mid-season at Zandvoort, reset himself. He dug deep and hit back as Piastri admitted to overdriving in Baku, where he crashed in qualifying and on the first lap of the race after a jump start, then struggled on the late-season lower-grip tracks. There, like Russell, the need for constant adjustments blunted his ultra-committed-on-the-brakes approach while Norris, a sensitive driver who thrives when making those tiny adjustments based on steering feedback, excelled. This played out against a backdrop of suspicion about favouritism within the team thanks to the well-intentioned desire to use ‘Papaya rules’ to allow an even fight, but that often simply led to the impression that it was doing the opposite.

The underlying conflict remains but is dormant, and although there’s still no decisive victory Norris has been the more impressive McLaren driver in a season beset by reliability problems. That’s perhaps to be expected given these lower-downforce cars that move around more, but until McLaren has a more consistently competitive platform it is impossible to draw any definitive conclusions. This is a lull in hostilities, not the end of it, and once McLaren does get back to regular winning ways the fault lines of 2025 will become visible again and the battle for supremacy will be rejoined. In the meantime, their complementary skillsets as drivers are a valuable weapon for the team.

RED BULL

Max Verstappen vs Isack Hadjar

Max Verstappen is an irresistible force; being his team-mate is the poisoned chalice Isack Hadjar must drink from. The 21-year-old believes he can beat Verstappen, but even becoming the proverbial immovable object that can stand up to life alongside the four-times world champion would represent a win.

Hadjar hasn’t matched Verstappen so far, but has started well. He’s avoided the fate of Liam Lawson, absurdly relegated to Racing Bulls after just two races last year, and has performed at a level that has at least prevented rumours of his sacking. The trouble is, Verstappen seems impregnable. It’s often said Red Bull designs the car to suit Verstappen, but while there’s a kernel of truth in that, the chain of cause and effect is more complicated. Not only is Verstappen mentally robust, save for those occasions on track when red mist descends, but he also raises the ceiling of what Red Bull can do with its car.

“The question is whether Hadjar can thrive in these conditions.”

It’s well known he craves a responsive front end, and can tolerate more rear-end instability than probably any driver on the grid. That’s less a preference and more about a capacity to operate in a window that raises the laptime potential of the car. Every driver sits somewhere on the spectrum for ability to handle rear-end instability, and Verstappen, like Michael Schumacher in his heyday, is at the extreme end. When the car is front-limited, Verstappen’s advantage is eroded but he doesn’t go missing. The Red Bull becomes a hostile environment to most when it’s to his liking. Optimise the car around lesser drivers and they perform better, but you lose access to the greater heights Verstappen can reach. The question is whether Hadjar can thrive in these conditions.

The evidence so far is inconclusive. On the positive side, Hadjar is closer to Verstappen’s style than, say, Verstappen’s long-time Red Bull team-mate Sergio Pérez was. He can live with a reasonable amount of rear-end instability but has a slightly more aggressive style than Verstappen’s, late braking, hustling the car into the corner but at risk of inducing over-rotation and scrubbing speed if the rear steps out. The beauty of Verstappen’s driving is that there is a calmness amid the tumult, as he tends to brake slightly earlier and somehow float a car that to most would be on a terrifying knife-edge into the corner.

There’s no sign of fractiousness, but unless Verstappen is given something to worry about why would there be? Instead, Hadjar appears at war with himself, never more furious than when he makes a mistake. In the car, an error can be followed by his trademark ‘Isack smack’, striking the steering wheel repeatedly. Outside of the car, and even if a qualifying session or race has ostensibly gone well, he is prone to eviscerating himself. That can be a valuable weapon when it comes to self-improvement, but the 21-year-old would benefit from rounding off those sharper edges while retaining the brutal honesty that will allow him to improve.

Hadjar has passed his first test alongside Verstappen in that he hasn’t sunk without trace and, at times, has lived with him. Equally, he’s never done anything to suggest he can seriously trouble his team-mate. But then again, who could?