F1's scheme to help struggling engine manufacturers catch the leaders could be more powerful than first thought, writes Mark Hughes. Are Mercedes and Ferrari masking their true performance for long-term advantage?
Mercedes and Ferrari both have an incentive to underplay their F1 power unit performance
By coincidence, two key power unit decisions will both become applicable from the Monaco Grand Prix (one race after Montreal).
One will be the first application of F1’s Additional Development Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) that will grant struggling power unit manufacturers the ability to upgrade their engine, along with extra resources.
The second is the ruling on Mercedes’ con rod measurement, introducing a new compression ratio test that will be carried out at 130C, as well as ambient temperature.
We don’t expect an immediate radical, or even a noticeable, change in the performance hierarchy of the motors from this double adjustment.
But of potentially far more competitive disruption is the plan announced by the FIA last week to increase the potential power of the internal combustion engines in 2027 by increasing the fuel-flow limit. The reason why that is so significant is to do with ADUO and the PU cost cap.
Before we get into why the increase in fuel flow for next year is so significant, an explanation of why any immediate change from Monaco is unlikely. Two reasons: Firstly, because Mercedes has almost certainly not been running its PU to its full potential, just as Mercedes believes Ferrari hasn’t either. Both suspect the other of sandbagging so as to game the ADUO system – Mercedes in order to retain its advantage, Ferrari in order to appear to be behind the 2% threshold, which would entitle it to the ADUO privileges.
Rules changes or not, Ferrari is clear favourite for Monaco
Grand Prix Photo
Assuming Mercedes has indeed not wanted to show all that it’s got in the pre-ADUO races, then one very convenient way of doing that would be not to take advantage of the compression ratio trick the others believe it has devised. If the Mercedes PU has an advantage even when running the same compression ratio as the others, then not using the trick will help with the ADUO – and will mean no changes would need to be made to the engine when the new hot and cold test takes effect.
Secondly, power unit changes are invariably very long lead. The ADUO allows an extra upgrade, some extra dyno time and a cost cap allowance for any manufacturer deemed behind the deficit threshold. The manufacturers will only be informed if they have been granted an adjustment after Montreal. So to see an effect two weeks later would be unrealistic. For them to have spent any of their precious cost-capped budget on any upgrade they may not be allowed to implement (if they don’t get an ADUO allowance) would seem unlikely. So they’d probably only be starting on that upgrade after Montreal.
However, a very important caveat. Ferrari is favourite for Monaco regardless of any PU adjustments. Just as in previous years, the traits of its car – a more adjustable through-corner balance than any other and a small turbo responsiveness through and out of slow corners – are perfect for this track. It’s been like this for years and the current Ferrari has continued to show both those traits in the races to date.
So if Ferrari is indeed granted an ADUO adjustment and it immediately sets its first pole of the year – both perfectly feasible, even likely – then people for sure are going to be equating correlation with causation. Wait until the more conventional demands of Barcelona before making that judgement of any Ferrari ADUO adjustment.
The FIA has updated Formula 1’s regulations in what appears to be an attempt at helping Honda
By
Pablo Elizalde
Okay, with the likely insignificant part covered, let’s look at the implications of the extra 2027 fuel flow and how that might relate to ADUO.
A regulation change in the fuel flow – made in response to the problems inherent in the current electrical/combustion split – is massively significant. It’s as fundamental as a change to the engine size would be. It will impact upon all aspects of the engine and car specification: the optimum combustion chamber shape, valve angles, camshaft design, cooling, fuel consumption, optimum electrical energy harvesting and deployment, turbo behaviour and sizing, even aerodynamics (because of the cooling and fuel consumption implications).
Optimising around all those interacting variables is a long and expensive job, one not foreseen or budgeted for. Suddenly, any manufacturer which has been given ADUO privileges after Montreal, two weeks from now – extra budget, extra simulation time – will be given a bigger boost than anticipated. The engine regulation change means there is now a much bigger advantage to be had from the extra spend and simulation.
Will that be enough to usurp Mercedes as the leading PU? As ever, F1 is a part technology race, part political battle. Watch this space.
