F1's Middle East standoff: why nobody wants to blink first

Back in July, Formula 1 boss Stefano Domenicali set his own deadline to decide the fate of the final part of the 2026 season, saying any changes to the calendar should be done by “the middle of September”.

Domenicali’s timeline was tied to the logistics of getting sea freight to the Middle East in time for a season-closing run of Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

Mid-September has come and gone, and Formula 1 has already blown through that deadline.

The announcement of the entire 2027 calendar has somehow arrived first, but what hasn’t come is any word on whether the final two rounds of this season will go ahead or where.

On the surface, this could look like caution. FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem framed it that way earlier this month, telling the Associated Press that Formula 1 was right not to “jump the gun” on a call affecting the safety of drivers, teams and staff travelling into an active conflict zone.

Domenicali also said recently that the calendar will remain as it is, for now.

While both statements are true, neither explains why a deadline set for freight-logistics reasons has simply been allowed to slide with no new date attached – nor why, according to reporting in The Times, the delay actually comes down to the risk that pre-emptively cancelling both races would “cost financially”.

Formula 1’s revenue is earned almost entirely when races actually take place — from hosting fees and associated TV and sponsorship revenue. Its newly published annual report states that it does not hold insurance that to cover a cancelled event.

Whether a promoter still owes F1 its contracted fee for a race called off by “factors beyond the Group’s control” depends on the specific wording of that promoter’s contract, but if a promoter is the one who fails to deliver the event, Formula 1 says it may be entitled to compensation for the broadcast revenue it loses as a result.

In other words: the safer and more profitable outcome, from FOM’s side, is for Qatar or Abu Dhabi to pull out first. And so it appears that Formula 1 is waiting.

However, neither promoter appears to be wavering.

The organisers of the Qatar Grand Prix said earlier this month that the country “has been safe for months now” and that life there was back to normal, with preparations for both Formula 1 and MotoGP continuing as planned.

Abu Dhabi, for its part, has spent the past few weeks adding to its post-race concert bill rather than hedging: Grammy-nominated singer-songwriter Alex Warren was announced as the latest addition just last week.

And so, two promoters who have every commercial incentive to run their events are refusing to blink first, leaving Formula 1 stuck holding a deadline it set for itself and has no obvious way to enforce.

As it’s often the case with F1, the money at stake explains why nobody wants to move first.

Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, called off in April after the conflict broke out, are estimated to have cost the sport more than £100 million in lost fees between them.

Liberty Media’s own second-quarter figures showed Formula 1 revenue fall by 38% year-on-year, from $1.226 billion to $764 million, largely as a result of having four fewer races in the quarter.

Some of that will be recouped by staging the Bahrain Grand prix in Malaysia next week, but losing Qatar and Abu Dhabi on top of that – the two rounds reported to carry among the highest sanctioning fees on the calendar – is a hit Formula 1 would clearly rather engineer its way out.

It also explains a sequence that otherwise makes little sense: Formula 1 confirming a full four-race Middle East slate for 2027, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia opening the season in March, while still refusing to rule on the same two countries closing out 2026.

Building flexibility into next year’s schedule is sensible planning, but publishing a record-equalling 24-race calendar for 2027 before saying whether 2026 finishes at 22 or 24 is not the behaviour of a sport that has resolved the underlying problem. It’s the behaviour of one keeping every option open for as long as it’s humanly possible.

There is also a genuine sporting deadline forcing the issue.

Kimi Antonelli leads the championship by 81 points with, in theory, nine rounds remaining, and the size of the lead he needs to clinch the title mathematically changes depending on whether Qatar and Abu Dhabi still count.

A points swing of that size is not something Formula 1 can leave unresolved indefinitely, whatever the promoters do.

Speculation now points to a decision arriving in early October, after this weekend’s Baku round, with Imola pencilled in to replace the 6 December date if Abu Dhabi is dropped.

Other championships have already made the call Formula 1 is avoiding.

The World Endurance Championship and World Rally Championship have both pulled their season-ending Middle East rounds in favour of European venues.

MotoGP – like Formula 1, owned by Liberty Media – is reported to have leaned toward cancelling its own Qatar round, though series boss Carmelo Ezpeleta said at the weekend that “right now the idea is to go” if the situation doesn’t worsen.

None of those series has quite Formula 1’s scale of Middle Eastern income to lose, which may be exactly why they’ve found it easier to decide.