Abu Dhabi F1 showdown: How Norris, Verstappen, or Piastri can win the 2025 title

F1
November 30, 2025

Lando Norris is still in control of the F1 world championship, but he'll face a nervous weekend in Abu Dhabi following a disappointing Qatar GP weekend. Here are the latest permutations

Max Verstappen walks with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris along the grid ahead of the 2025 F1 Japanese Grand Prix

Norris, Verstappen and Piastri: one of the three will be the 2025 world champion

Grand Prix Photo

November 30, 2025

Max Verstappen remains in Formula 1 championship contention after taking victory in the Qatar Grand Prix ahead of Oscar Piastri.

With Lando Norris finishing in fourth it means Abu Dhabi will host a three-way battle for the title next weekend.

After Qatar, Norris’ lead has been reduced to just 12 points over Verstappen and 16 over Piastri.

The points situation means Norris remains in full control of his destiny: if he finishes third or better, he will clinch the title regardless of where Verstappen and Piastri finish.

Any result lower than third opens the door for either rival to snatch the crown if they win the race and Norris finishes far enough down the order, with Verstappen only able to overtake Norris if he outscores him by at least 13 points, and Piastri needing a 17-point swing.

Verstappen’s best hope is simple: he must finish well ahead of Norris, ideally by winning the race while Norris is fourth or lower.

That would allow Verstappen to overturn the current 12-point deficit and take the title.

Piastri faces even slimmer odds and must win in Abu Dhabi while hoping Norris finishes sixth or lower.

Even then, he must ensure Verstappen is not ahead of him in the final classification. In every other scenario, Norris remains champion.

Scroll down to see all the title permutations for Abu Dhabi.

2025 F1 championship points after Qatar GP

Position Driver Points Gap to leader
1 Lando Norris 408
2 Max Verstappen 396 -12
3 Oscar Piastri 392 -16
Maximum points remaining: 25

How Lando Norris wins the title

  • P1-P3: Norris is champion (no chance for rivals).

  • P4-P5: Norris loses the title only if Verstappen wins.

  • P6-P7: Norris can be beaten if either Verstappen or Piastri wins.

  • P8: Can be beaten if Verstappen finishes 1st or 2nd, or Piastri wins.

  • P9: Can be beaten if Verstappen finishes 1-3, or Piastri wins.

  • P10: Can be beaten if Verstappen finishes 1-3, or Piastri finishes 1–2.

How Max Verstappen wins the title

  • Best, simplest route: Win and Norris 4th or lower.

  • Second route: Finish 2nd and Norris finishes 8th-10th, and Piastri does not win.

  • Long shot: Finish 3rd while Norris finishes 9th-10th and Piastri does not win.

How Oscar Piastri wins the title

  • Most realistic route: Win and Norris 6th or lower, with Verstappen not also winning.

  • Tiny alternative: Finish 2nd while Norris is 10th and Verstappen finishes between 4th-9th.

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