F1's next calendar puzzle: who replaces Qatar and Abu Dhabi?

Formula 1 has already solved one problem this year.

The Bahrain Grand Prix, postponed in March after the outbreak of the Iran war, will now be run at Sepang on 4 October – Malaysia’s confirmed return plugging the gap left in the Baku-to-Singapore window and restoring the calendar to 23 rounds after Saudi Arabia’s cancellation took it down from the original 24.

The bigger problem hasn’t gone away, though, it’s just moved to the end of the season.

The Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix, scheduled for 27-29 November and 4-6 December respectively, remain under a cloud as the regional conflict continues, and Formula 1 chief executive Stefano Domenicali has said a final call needs to come before the end of September.

The clearest sign yet of how seriously that threat is being taken arrived on Tuesday, not from Formula 1 but from its sister championship.

The FIA confirmed that the World Endurance Championship’s own season run-in, originally set for Qatar and Bahrain, will instead be run at Barcelona and Monza, citing “the current regional security situation and its effect on freight and travel arrangements.”

WEC’s Qatar round had already been pushed back once, from March. This time, rather than wait any longer, the series simply moved.

It’s a partial precedent rather than a direct one, as WEC doesn’t race in Abu Dhabi, so the switch only speaks to the Qatar side of Formula 1’s dilemma, but it’s a concrete example of a top-tier FIA championship concluding that the operational obstacles in the region are not likely to be resolved in time, and choosing to relocate rather than gamble on a late reprieve.

Formula 1 is reportedly working through a similar set of alternatives.

Qatar’s WEC round was scheduled for 24 October, a month before the F1 event, so there is still some breathing room, but time is running out.

Now Imola has emerged as the leading candidate to replace the finale if needed, ahead of Portimao in Portugal and a more speculative offer from Istanbul Park in Turkey.

FOM is also said to favour adding a second race at an existing host — Las Vegas, Baku or Singapore — rather than bringing in a new venue, but that idea reportedly doesn’t have unanimous support from the teams.

If it’s dropped, the fallback options are the European venues below.

Imola: the emerging favourite

Imola’s case is straightforward: it was on the Formula 1 calendar as recently as 2025 (having returned in 2020, with only the 2023 edition lost to flooding), so its Grade 1 status and operational readiness are far more current than any of the venues considered for the slot.

December is also clear on Imola’s own calendar – its closest fixture, the Imola Classic, falls in mid-October.

What sets this apart from the earlier round of speculation is that it now has an on-record F1 comment behind it.

Domenicali has confirmed Imola remains the championship’s back-up plan if the Middle East rounds can’t go ahead – a genuine, attributable source, rather than the unnamed-sources sourcing that characterised the Bahrain-slot reporting.

One issue with Imola is that the December temperatures average around 8-10C by day and 1-3C overnight, well outside the range Formula 1 normally operates in.

The closest precedent is last year’s Las Vegas Grand Prix, run in similar cold, where drivers needed extra out-laps just to get tyres into their working window. It’s not necessarily a reason Imola wouldn’t happen, but it’s a real variable for Pirelli’s tyre choice and the on-track spectacle.

Likelihood: high. Recency of hosting, a clear December date, and direct confirmation from F1’s own chief executive put Imola ahead of the other two.

Portugal: the fallen favourite

Portimao was the early favourite for a finale contingency, for reasons that carried over from the Bahrain-slot discussion: turn-key infrastructure, agreeable late-year weather, and recent experience as a pandemic-era stand-in.

That’s reportedly changed.

The circuit is midway through preparing facility upgrades ahead of its own contracted return in 2027 and 2028, and taking on a last-minute race in December risks disrupting that renovation timeline, which is now cited as the reason Imola has moved ahead of it in the pecking order.

Likelihood: moderate, and falling. Still a credible option, but reportedly no longer the frontrunner it was thought to be earlier in the process.

Turkey: an offer, not (yet) a front-runner

Istanbul Park is already contracted to rejoin the calendar from 2027 on a five-year deal, and the venue is reportedly willing to move that forward by a year.

The catch is the same one that applied when Turkey was floated for the Bahrain slot: doing so would mean accelerating renovations planned for the 2027 launch, on a much tighter timeline.

Turkey is seen as a secondary option behind Imola and Portimao rather than a leading contender.

Likelihood: low-to-moderate. The willingness is reportedly there, but it isn’t being framed as the preferred solution.