MotoGP’s looming battles

MotoGP

If you’re disappointed about the current lack of great MotoGP battles, don’t worry, there are some fights on the way. You just won’t see them

Fabio Quartararo battles Pecco Bagnaia at start of MotoGP Sachsenring race

Charging towards Turn 1 at Sachsenring. Fabio Quartararo won the race by 4.9-seconds, leading all the way, apart from a couple of seconds when Pecco Bagnaia sneaked past

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If you’re lucky enough to hang around in the MotoGP paddock, sipping corporate cappuccinos, you’ll notice that the conversation isn’t what it used to be.

In recent years MotoGP people were justifiably smug about the championship. It had become the best motorsport on earth – no doubt about that – even praised by those in Formula 1 who had the balls to admit it.

We knew Formula 1 had all the money and all the celebs, but we didn’t care because we had the best racing and that’s all that matters, so long as you are actually into the racing, rather than being seen in your boxfresh Ralph Lauren loafers, wearing a wristwatch the size of a tennis racket.

“Over the last year or so MotoGP has lost its three greatest assets”

Now we’re not so sure. The battles MotoGP fans enjoyed for so long rarely happen now, while F1 has found a new lease of life, thanks to the invigorating effect of the superb Drive to Survive documentary series.

Over the last year or so MotoGP has lost its three greatest assets: Valentino Rossi, Marc Márquez (for the time being) and, most importantly, good racing. Dorna can do nothing about Rossi or Márquez but it may be able to do something about the racing.

This is the coming battle.

MotoGP is still super-close but there’s less overtaking and fewer battles, for various reasons. First, because MotoGP’s front tyre has been taken to the limit by increased machine performance: more power (which creates more heat), more speed, bigger brakes, plus add-ons like downforce aerodynamics and shapeshifters. All of these factors increase load on the front tyre, raising temperature and pressure, which is why riders struggle to pass each other.

2022 MotoGP rider group shot

This year’s MotoGP grid – next year there will be two fewer bikes and more than a third of the grid will be Ducatis

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One engineer told me it’s “a nightmare” to keep the front tyre in a good temperature/pressure range: too low and you’re illegal (from next year, anyway), too high and you have no grip.

Also, riders can no longer slipstream each other – a vital part of the overtaking process – because their front tyre will overheat if they stay in the draft of the bike in front.

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So far this year there hasn’t been a single last-lap pass for the win, even though four races have been won by less than a second (Losail: 0.3 seconds, Termas: 0.8 seconds, Jerez: 0.3 seconds, Mugello: 0.6 seconds and Assen: 0.4 seconds). This tells the story of MotoGP in its current state – you can get close to the rider in front but it’s almost impossible to get past, unless you are considerably faster.

If Dorna executives want to keep the money rolling in they need to do something about this situation, because fans want battles, not processions.

And they are aware of the dangers of less-than-thrilling racing.

“It is a concern for us and sooner or later we are making a proposal to the manufacturers,” says Dorna’s director of technology Corrado Cecchinelli. “Motorcycle aerodynamics isn’t our concern, but having lots of people happy watching the racing and happy with the show is our concern.”

Many riders, engineers and factories believe MotoGP could go some way to fixing the problem by banning shapeshifters (also known as ride-height devices) and at least reducing the amount of downforce aerodynamics.

Right now it seems only Aprilia and Ducati are keen on maintaining aero at its current level. No surprise there because the two Italian factories have created by far the best aero systems on the grid. As for shapeshifters, everyone apart from Ducati would rather have them gone.

MotoGP team principals on stage at Assen

The five factories with which Dorna will discuss any rule changes: Alberto Puig (Honda), Francesco Guidotti (KTM), Paolo Bonora (Aprilia), Massimo Meregalli (Yamaha) and Paolo Ciabatti (Ducati)

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Again, no surprise here, because both these technologies were pioneered by Ducati, who can only be congratulated for its innovations. The job of a race engineer is to make the motorcycle faster around the racetrack, simple as that. And Ducati has done this with amazing creativity and clever engineering, transforming its Desmosedici into a very rideable motorcycle, which as a result won the last two constructors championships.

Factory rider Jack Miller summed this up nicely last month at Sachsenring.

“This year’s bike works really well, especially in the first sector,” said the Australian, who finished the German Grand Prix in third place. “I remember a few years ago wheelying the Ducati down the hill towards Turn 3 and it was like trying to turn a London bus. Now it feels more like a Mini Cooper, so it’s good.”

Shapeshifter malfunctions have become the most common cause of technical DNFs

So, would it be fair for Dorna to punish Ducati engineers for their creativity by banning their creations? And can Dorna actually do this?

Well, Dorna has already taken matters into its own hands. Usually, the MSMA (the manufacturers association) must ratify all technical regulations, but earlier this year Dorna bulldozed through that convention by unilaterally banning front-end shapeshifters (introduced by Ducati for the 2023 championship), from the end of this season. Ducati complained loudly, but to no avail.

So presumably Dorna is now free to repeat the process and unilaterally reduce downforce aero and ban rear-end shapeshifters?

Especially since Dorna could play the safety card. In recent races there have been several crashes and incidents caused by riders trying to brake while in the vacuum created by machines carrying a lot of downforce aero. And shapeshifter malfunctions have become the most common cause of technical DNFs, Aprilia’s Maverick Viñales almost losing control when his shapeshifter stayed locked down during the German GP. (It’s worth noting here that it’s the other manufacturers that usually suffer shapeshifter problems, not Ducati.)

Fabio Quartararo in front of MotoGP Sachsenring crowd

Quartararo at Sachsenring – crowd figures at some 2022 MotoGP rounds have been impressive

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So Dorna should be able to get rid of these technologies, right?

Maybe not.

Ducati has spent lots of of money transforming its Desmosedici from mid-pack wannabe into title contender via aerodynamics and shapeshifters, so the company will not want to give up its hard-won performance.

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So what will happen if Dorna tries to reduce or ban these technologies?

If I was the big boss at Ducati I would quietly remind Dorna that Suzuki is out at the end of the year, Yamaha is halving its presence and without Ducati’s support the grid will look very thin in 2023. Next year more than one third of the grid – eight bikes out of 22 – is due to be Desmosedicis, so I would ask Dorna execs to imagine how the MotoGP grid would look if Ducati didn’t show up. I’d also remind them about MotoE, which becomes a Ducati series next season.

In other words, Ducati currently has more power in the MotoGP paddock than any other manufacturer. They’re not stupid at Borgo Panigale.

Of course, this kind of thing is nothing new. A decade ago Honda MotoGP boss Shuhei Nakamoto threatened to quit MotoGP if Dorna introduced same-for-all spec software to MotoGP. On that occasion Dorna won the argument.

Carmelo Ezpeleta with MotoGP riders

Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta and his staff want consensus with the factories, but what will happen if they don’t get it?

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This is simply how racing works and has always worked. Racing doesn’t only take place on the racetrack, in pit-lane garages and dyno rooms, it takes place in boardrooms, paddock meetings and via heated telephone conversations. Political power and corporate power are as important as horsepower and are wielded via sabre-rattling and horse-trading.

“Obviously anything we do we want to do with the consensus of the manufacturers, we want to work with them,” adds Cecchinelli. “But it’s not easy. If you listen to people in favour of aerodynamics they say it would be a mistake to go backwards, because downforce makes the bikes more stable on the brakes and in fast corners, so overall the motorcycles are more stable.

“On the other hand, we hear concerns from some riders about when they get too close to the rider in front they get sucked in, so they have unpredictable braking and other disturbing effects.

“The problem is that when you enter into this sort of discussion [with the manufacturers], you’re not talking to people who approach issues with intellectual honesty.  They approach problems like this: OK, how can we change the rules so that I can retain all my strong points and make some new limits where I’m not the best?”

Where does this leave MotoGP and its (relative) lack of excitement? I have no idea. But over the next few months there will be meetings between Dorna, the manufacturers and other stakeholders. I suspect the discussions will be interesting, to say the least, maybe even exciting. So perhaps Dorna should broadcast them live?