The 2023 MotoGP title fight: Bagnaia versus Martin; who’s your money on?

This year Martin has the same contract as Bagnaia, so he has the same number of electronics technicians tapping away behind his garage wall. This is arguably the most important weapon of a modern MotoGP armoury, because data is everything. Ducati had to give Martin the same treatment as its factory riders to keep him, after turning him down for a place in the 2023 factory team.

Valentino Rossi’s crew chief Jeremy Burgess used to say that top speed isn’t so important because you only use it once a lap, but times change. MotoGP is so close now and it’s so difficult to overtake in the corners. Therefore you have a major advantage if you can pass someone on the straight, because it’s easy and it takes no risk for the rider and puts no stress on the bike, the brakes or the tyres.

Top speeds taken from the last ten GP races (averages of each rider’s five best speeds during the GP race) reveal tiny but potentially significant differences between the two title fighters. Martin had a big advantage for a while but that’s gone now. We don’t know why, but top speeds aren’t all about horsepower, they’re also about rider position, corner-exit speed, electronics strategies, aero packages etc.

Rider strategy

Bagnaia leads the championship, so he’s defending while Martin is attacking. That’s a big difference. However, Bagnaia knows the best way to defend is to attack, which is why he’s been more aggressive than ever at recent races.

Martin knows he has nothing to lose. Winning the championship means everything: your place in history and many millions in the bank. Therefore his only option is to go full-attack, full-risk, which suits the way he goes racing. He’s a bit like Kevin Schwantz or Marc Márquez. Full gas and to hell with the consequences – he would prefer to go down fighting than counting the percentages.

Mentality

Psychology has always been a massive part of motorcycle racing, because the risks are huge and the sport is basically two hundred miles an hour cage-fighting. Five-time MotoGP king Mick Doohan once said that racing is 90% psychology.

Both title contenders are rock hard mentally. Bagnaia is super-cool and plays the long game. He’s never in a hurry in practice and he’s not always in a hurry in races. He knows when to push and when to hold back.

Martin is all don’t-give-a-f**k and aways all-in. Recently he’s been trying to rattle Bagnaia, who’s the hunted, while Martin is the hunter. “I hope he’s scared!” he said a couple of races ago. But I’m not sure it’s that easy to get into Bagnaia’s head. Or vice-versa.

By the way, Martin loves beating the factory-team – he knows it doesn’t please the people who decided to overlook him in favour of Bastianini.

Mistakes

Who’s made the most mistakes this year? Bagnaia has crashed in four races, Martin has crashed out of three. These are quite high numbers for title challengers, but this is how it is in modern-day MotoGP – the margins are so tiny that riders must walk the line more than ever if they want to fight for the biggest prize in motorcycling.

Martin crashed out of the opening GP at Portimao, fighting back from 16th after nearly going down in the Marc Márquez pile-up. Then he crashed out on the first lap at COTA, all his fault. His next GP fall came 12 races later when he ran slightly off-line in Indonesia and crashed out of a comfortable lead. That lost him the title advantage, which he’d held for 24 hours, since winning the previous day’s sprint.

And then of course there was his wrong tyre choice at Phillip Island, which so nearly paid off. This was typical Martin: risk it and go for it.

Bagnaia crashed in the second race, in the rain at Termas de Rio Honda (where he remounted to finish outside the points), then he slid off at COTA’s off-camber Turn 2 as he gave vain chase to winner Alex Rins. He crashed again at Le Mans in a collision with Maverick Viñales. Three falls from the first five races, a bit of a rehash of 2022.

Next he had that horror fall at the start of the Catalan GP and then he fell in India, while duelling with Martin, due to an over-pressure front tyre.

Physical strength 

Martin’s other big thing is his super-hang-off style, which is why he’s built like a cage-fighter. He uses his massive upper-body strength to lean so far off the bike that his inside hand barely touches the inside handlebar. Leaning far into the inside also turns the bike better – simple physics.

Bagnaia doesn’t look strong, but he is. He trains with his VR46 trainers to create a physique that isn’t that dissimilar to mentor Valentino Rossi’s. He’s got enough muscle and crucially enough endurance.

But he doesn’t muscle the bike around like Martin, which is why he prefers a set-up that prioritises manoeuvrability. All downforce aero makes the bike harder to handle, so he only uses Ducati’s fork wings at tracks where wheelies are a problem. Martin has them fitted all the time.

Team orders

So far no team orders, but most riders know when they should help a team-mate. These things don’t only depend on what team bosses say, they also depend on the rider’s state of mind, the state of his contract and which riders he likes and doesn’t like.

Bagnaia definitely has a team-mate who may be able to help him, in Sepang winner Enea Bastianini. And Ducati has further improved Bastianini’s dedication to Bagnaia’s cause by suggesting Martin may get promoted to the factory team if he wins the title, while Bastianini could get demoted to Pramac in 2024.

Can Johann Zarco help Martin? Maybe, maybe not. But the Frenchman is off to LCR Honda for 2014, so he will probably do what he wants to do.

Tyre Penalties

Bagnaia and Martin have received warnings for running their front-tyre pressure below the legal minimum at the last two races. Next time they both face a three-second penalty, which could cost a significant number of points at Losail and Valencia, where the lead groups are often tightly packed.

Of course, there could be no possible worse outcome for both riders – and even more importantly for MotoGP itself – than if the title were to be decided by points lost due to a tyre penalty. So let me take this opportunity to give a big, fat ‘up yours’ to MotoGP’s 1.88 bar minimum pressure rule, which is ruining the world’s greatest motor sport.

Losail and Valencia results

Finally, let’s compare their results from the last two seasons at Losail and Valencia, which may (or may not) give us a hint of what’s to come.

Bagnaia finished third and sixth at Losail in 2021, when the venue hosted two GPs. He took pole at the first race, while Martin, starting his first season in the premier class, took pole at the second race and finished on the podium, ahead of Bagnaia.

At Valencia last year Martin finished third, a second behind winner Rins. Bagnaia cruised home in ninth, just enough to secure the title, which is all that mattered that day.

Bagnaia won the 2021 Valencia GP. It was his fourth win from the last six races in his first season in the factory Ducati team. Martin, completing his rookie season with Pramac, finished second, less than half a second down.

In other words, they’re both super-fast at the last two venues – too close to call. Let’s just hope it doesn’t snow at Valencia on November 26.