How Max Verstappen can win the F1 world championship & why Lando Norris probably still will

Max Verstappen has been thrown a lifeline in the F1 World Championship, with Lando Norris‘s disqualification from the Las Vegas Grand Prix giving the Red Bull driver an outside shot of the title.

But don’t let the shock outcome distract from the reality of the situation: Norris is still 24 points ahead, and with two races remaining, it’s a hefty margin to expect anybody to overcome.

Norris can be crowned champion in Qatar if he gains two points on both Piastri and Verstappen by the end of the race weekend.

It’s still a better situation than the hopeless one that Verstappen faced immediately after the Las Vegas Grand Prix, when he lay 42 points adrift in the title race with only 58 points available in the final two grands prix and Qatar sprint race.

The disqualification of both McLarens now brings him to within one race victory of Norris and level on points with Piastri.

2025 F1 championship points after Las Vegas GP

There’s a strong chance that the result of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will determine this year’s F1 champion, based on average points scored by each driver.

All three title contenders have had a fairly consistent run of finishes since the Dutch Grand Prix: Until Las Vegas, Piastri had slumped to 9.5 points per Grand Prix, compared to Norris’s 18. Verstappen had been scoring 20.5 points per race.

If that trend continues, then Norris is on course to become champion, but Verstappen could well reduce his lead in Qatar and take it to the final round.

As Las Vegas showed, however, the unexpected can be just around the corner in F1.

If Norris retires in Qatar and Verstappen or Piastri win the race, then we coould have a new championship leader ahead of Abu Dhabi, depending on the result of next Saturday’s sprint.

We have already seen large points swings this year. At one point Piastri was leading Norris by 34 points and Verstappen by 104, but the Australian hasn’t outscored his team-mate since the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August. He crashed out of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and has lacked pace at crucial moments.

In contrast, Verstappen has been on a charge. He looked to be on course for one of F1’s greatest comebacks early this autumn, having won three in four races from the start of September, before his momentum was halted by Norris’s victories in Mexico and Brazil.

Read on for more on each driver’s title prospects.

Norris still has the championship advantage

Lando Norris’s season came alive after his retirement at the Dutch Grand Prix. Until then, he had been losing ground to Piastri. Since that race, Norris hasn’t lost a single point to his team-mate at any round.

Ahead of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, Norris explained that the change was largely from “a mental side”, which he began working on after a difficult start to the year.

“Prior to Zandvoort, I think I started to be on the right track,” said Norris. “Zandvoort, I would have finished second. Oscar was always going to win there, but that was just a big step back in terms of positioning.

“The change had already started by that point. By the time we got Zandvoort out the way, it gave me a bit more time to kind of refocus, and then it was more evident – which I think is why you probably use Zandvoort as that turning point.”

The graph above shows Norris’s trajectory since the Dutch Grand Prix. He’s scored an average of just under 18 points per grand prix since then (excluding Las Vegas), putting him on course to win the title this season in Abu Dhabi with 430 points if he carries on at the same rate.

Piastri’s slump and Verstappen’s recovery are clear here too: the Red Bull driver’s 20.5-point average over the same period — plus the Las Vegas disqualification — has already seen him draw level with Piastri, who has an average of 9.5 points per GP since Zandvoort. That trend will see Verstappen more than 20 points clear of Piastri by the end of the year.

At this stage, Norris could finish third behind Piastri and Verstappen at every remaining race and still win the championship.

Alternatively, he only needs another strong weekend to clinch the title in Qatar. If Norris outscores Piastri and Verstappen by two points over the course of the sprint and the Grand Prix, then he will be champion before the final round.

Piastri’s remaining hopes

He’s 24 points behind Norris and there are two rounds left, so Piastri can’t really rely on chipping away at Norris’s lead: he needs to hope that his team-mate retires or makes an error that puts him out of one of the next races.

At that point, Piastri would seize the lead of the championship if he wins, eliminating that 24 point deficit. Unusually, this appears to be the biggest obstacle. He hasn’t looked like winning a race since Zandvoort.

Norris has already had one car failure this year, at the Dutch Grand Prix, not to mention his error in Canada when he drove into Piastri and out of the race.

Would Norris now be as aggressive when he can sit back and win? We may yet find out.

Verstappen’s chance of a historic comeback

Don’t rule out a driver who cut his 104-point championship deficit to 36 points in five races, and now sits within one race win of Norris.

Unlike Piastri, Verstappen is in winning form. Like the former McLaren championship leader, his best hope is for a Norris retirement.

He can probably envisage the McLarens colliding again — as they have done already: Norris retired in Canada after crashing into Piastri, they clashed again in Singapore, and then they both retired in the US sprint race after being caught up in a multi-car pile-up.

That’s not the only route to a championship upset though. Red Bull and Mercedes have shown the pace to win races. If they can push the McLarens down the running order, then Verstappen has the chance to gain the average 12 points per round that would likely make him champion?

Why likely? Well that points margin would probably require him to win the next two races, which would give Verstappen eight wins this season to Norris’s seven, making the Red Bull driver champion in the event of a points tie.

It remains a long shot: Verstappen would have to win every remaining race while Norris finished, on average, fourth or lower. Aside from two retirements and that disqualification, he’s finished lower than fourth just once this season.

Who will win if there’s a draw in the 2025 F1 championship?

If two or more drivers finish the season level on points, then their final position is initially decided on the number of race victories each has.

Piastri and Norris currently have seven wins apiece, while Verstappen has six. It could prove crucial.