MPH: Why Sainz and Albon are big players in F1's 2025 transfer market

Sainz only has this season left on his Ferrari contract and is said to be pushing for more than the one-year extension (plus an option on its side) currently on offer. Why might Ferrari not offer Sainz more than a year extension? Maybe it just wants flexibility, doesn’t want to have both its seats filled through to the end of ’26 thereby closing off the chance to take Hamilton when his Merc contract expires a year earlier. Would Ferrari want Hamilton alongside Leclerc? Senior management certainly would. Would Hamilton want to go to Ferrari? Probably not if the next two Mercs are super-fast. But if they are not?

Where does that leave Sainz? The likelihood of him returning to Red Bull is probably slim, given that it’s now even more Verstappen-centric – understandably so – than when feathers were ruffled as Max and Carlos partnered up at Toro Rosso a few years ago.

Prior to the Norris announcement, it was easy to imagine Carlos making a return to McLaren if Lando had left for Red Bull. But now, if he doesn’t wish to take up Ferrari on its supposed one-year extension offer, his options are fairly narrow if Red Bull is definitely out of the question. There’s the rumoured Audi offer. That’s quite a long-term project, surely. Otherwise, could he be convinced that Williams is a team with a front-running future? Because Williams could be needing a star driver in ’25.

Albon is contracted there for another year but with an option after that which the team will for sure wish to take up. His stock is very high after two super-impressive seasons. But maybe Williams could be persuaded to release him in ’25 for the right price – if there was a suitable replacement available. Such as Sainz.

Red Bull had made little secret of its desire to get Norris alongside his friend Verstappen – and it potentially had a 2025 seat ready for him, with Sergio Perez contracted there only until the end of this season. With Norris taken off the market now, what happens if Perez has another disappointing season this year? The imperative to replace him for ’25 would be immense. The only driver other than Norris that Red Bull has repeatedly made suggestions about having a possible future there is Albon. He’s a way more accomplished, experienced and confident driver than when he was last there, as a rookie. It would be ironic if he ended up replacing the driver (Perez) who replaced him, but this is F1.

But might Albon have another alternative? What if Sainz preferred to, say, sign a long-term deal with Audi than a single year extension with Ferrari. Who would fill the hole? Ferrari, just like Red Bull, could afford to pay out any options on Albon’s Williams contract – and he and Leclerc have worked well as team-mates before in the junior categories.

This is all fascinating game theory. How might it pan out? With Sainz taking up the Ferrari offer? With Perez performing so strongly this season that he automatically gets another Red Bull season in ’25? Or with Daniel Ricciardo performing so strongly in the (renamed AlphaTauri) Racing Bull this year that he replaces Perez in ‘25? Or with neither Perez nor Ricciardo impressing enough in ‘24 – and Albon returning to his seat alongside Max?  Or Sainz taking the Audi option and Albon being recruited by Ferrari to replace him? Norris’s new McLaren deal has narrowed the options down only slightly. There is still a fascinating range of possibilities. Including, of course, everything remaining exactly the same…