Race to the 2024 F1 constructors' title: why McLaren is hot favourite to win in Abu Dhabi

McLaren will secure its first Formula 1 constructors’ championship since 1998 today if just one of its drivers finishes ahead of both Ferraris at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

The team is in a prime position to do so, starting first and second on the grid, ahead of third-placed Carlos Sainz‘s Ferrari. His team-mate, Charles Leclerc, starts 19th after a grid penalty for fitting a new battery to his car, on top of a poor qualifying session where his best lap time was deleted.

McLaren leads the constructors’ championship by 21 points. To have any chance of snatching the title, Sainz (or Leclerc) will need to get past both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, whereas the McLaren duo can work together to keep him behind in the knowledge that only one of them needs to finish in front of the Ferraris to guarantee the team the constructors’ crown — even if the other McLaren fails to finish.

If McLaren doesn’t dominate both Ferraris, there are plenty of other scenarios that would see the team victorious, particularly with Leclerc facing a fight simply to get into the points.

Since a major upgrade package 17 races ago at the Miami Grand Prix transformed its car, McLaren’s drivers have able to close a 115-point deficit in the constructors’ championship and move ahead of both Ferrari and Red Bull. The team now simply needs to ensure that they’re not outscored by Ferrari by 21 points or more — and there are only 44 on offer in Abu Dhabi.

F1 constructors’ championship points after Qatar GP

Since Miami, McLaren has scored an average of 25 points per grand prix, compared with 20.7 for Ferrari and 17 for Red Bull. It was expected to perform well at Qatar’s Losail circuit and did so with a 1-2 finish in the sprint. But in the Grand Prix, while Piastri finished third, McLaren dropped points due to a 10sec stop/go penalty for Norris, which saw him ultimately finish a distant tenth.

That kept Ferrari’s title hopes alive heading into Abu Dhabi, but  winning the title appear to be virtually impossible. That said, never say never in F1.

Despite a ninth victory of the season for Verstappen in Qatar, Red Bull is now officially out of the hunt for this year’s constructors’ crown. Blame lies with Sergio Perez, who has scored just eight points in his last five races compared to his team-mate’s 98.

Now it’s a two horse race, but it’s still McLaren’s constructors’ title to lose. With a maximum of 44 points on the table, here’s how each team can claim the 2024 crown:

McLaren 

McLaren starts the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on the front row of the grid with a 21-point advantage in the constructors’ standings over Ferrari.