Why more F1 heads could roll in 2023 season

F1

Though F1's big guns stayed in front for 2022, all teams were remarkably close – it could lead to significant grid movement soon, writes Chris Medland

Abu Dhabi Grid start

Red Bull currently heads the pack – but could they soon be deposed in F1's new model?

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2022 was supposed to be massive for Formula 1. And in many ways it was.

The new regulations delivered hugely revised cars that were still visually different (and beautiful in my opinion), that could race in a more consistent way, and the financial regulations prevented anyone from spending their way out of trouble.

But as we all know, that didn’t stop the biggest teams from remaining the frontrunners, nor did it prevent a runaway champion in both title races. In fact, it appeared to have a detrimental effect on different teams’ ambitions to be closer to the front, as Lando Norris boasted the only non-Red Bull/Ferrari/Mercedes podium of the season at Imola.

“The slowest teams were remarkably close to the quickest”

It’s not all bad news though, far from it. The slowest teams were remarkably close to the quickest over one lap (exactly 1.3 seconds covered all 20 cars at the final round in Abu Dhabi despite a year of development), and every team had a standout performer they could call on to lead their efforts.

No longer was there an outfit some four or five seconds adrift, running two pay drivers to survive. This was a largely elite grid performing at an elite level and all showing up with the minimum target of fighting for Q2 and points.

And what has all of that added up to? An expectation for more. As we begin 2023 there’s real belief in every team that they can make significant strides up the grid, either to mount a serious title challenge, fight for regular podiums or pick up points on a consistent basis.

From the archive

That belief, or perhaps more specifically that expectation, has been a big part of the reasoning behind all the team management changes in recent weeks. Before Christmas, Mattia Binotto left Ferrari to be replaced by Frederic Vasseur, Andreas Seidl then was allowed to make an early departure from McLaren to become CEO at Hinwil, and Andrea Stella took over from Seidl at McLaren.

Some of it was triggered by Ferrari’s dissatisfaction at results, but there are new team bosses at two teams and two more vacancies – at Williams and Alfa Romeo where Seidl will find someone to work below him – heading into 2023. That comes after Alpine made a change 12 months ago installing Otmar Szafnauer, and Mike Krack was named as his replacement at Aston Martin.

It really is a time of major change in Formula 1. Team principals have previously had a far longer shelf life than football managers or similar, but the new era of a financially-regulated sport that wants to deliver closely-matched teams means more and more are under the impression that they aren’t lacking as much as they were in the past, and therefore the performances of the personnel comes under even greater scrutiny.

Ferrari F1 team boss Frederic Vasseur

The grid being closer than ever could encourage a ‘fire-and-hire’ culture in F1

DPPI

But this certainly remains a sport where quick fixes are few and far between. Development takes time, manufacturing takes time, engineering takes time, hiring of quality people takes time… And against that backdrop it’s clear that the blame for a current lack of performance rarely lies fully at the team principal’s door.

Which is why it’s such an intriguing period for all of the teams on the grid. Red Bull and Mercedes are very settled with their management structures, and the same can be said for Guenther Steiner at Haas while AlphaTauri appears to be retaining faith in Franz Tost. But for the remaining six teams there are either projects that are in their infancy or ones being completely restarted right this second, and the intention will be for them to be long-term ones.

Unless anyone emerges as a clearly unsuitable fit over the next 12 months, the teams going through change right now will only be able to start making significant judgements in 2024, while Alpine and Aston Martin are entering that phase at the moment and beginning to evaluate the impact that Szafnauer and Krack respectively are having.

Both teams have big targets to not only be closing the gap to Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes but actually challenging and beating them to championships in the not-too-distant future, but when you throw a similar desire from McLaren into the mix and add Audi’s plans for Sauber in a few years’ time and it starts to become clear how the overall state of F1 has created an environment where so many now believe they can reach the top relatively quickly.

Go back ten years and such realistic aims didn’t exist, because the enormous budgets some teams had created an almost impossible gap to close without similar or even more money. It still helps to have, of course, but hope has given way to serious ambition in many midfield outfits.

By the same token, that means so many will end up falling short given the competition. And how that impacts how frequently we see off-seasons such as this one will then become clear.

Team principals tend to be recognisable names thanks to their longevity and imprint on a team. We might be about to enter a spell of many new occupants cementing their positions for the long haul, or the whole landscape could be changing to a more hire-and-fire culture if success doesn’t come quickly.

Either way, 2023 is likely to be the starting point for one or the other.

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