Bahrain GP | Emilia Romagna GP

Recall that Valtteri Bottas quote at the launch of this season’s Mercedes? How he sounded as though he already realised 2021 was maybe his last chance in a title-contending car? “When I get to the last race in Abu Dhabi,” he said, “I want to look back and say that I did 100%, I did every single bit that I could to win the title; that’s the ultimate goal for this year. That is going to be the same for all the people around me, whoever I’m working with, I’ll demand as much as I feel like I need to, to get the support and the information that I need, and maybe that way, I can be a bit more selfish. One year in a lifetime, giving everything that you have is actually quite a short time.”

But trying to keep yourself out of the support role when your team-mate is Lewis Hamilton isn’t easy and in Bahrain for the opening race of the 2021 season Bottas… fell into the support role as Hamilton delivered an against-the-odds victory in what was not, for once, the fastest car. That status belonged to the Red Bull-Honda RB16B in which Max Verstappen set a superb pole position and led the first stint of the race. Bottas was a distant third.

Bottas’ Bahrain weekend just gradually slid away from him in a way that’s become so very familiar in the previous four seasons. Working backwards from that third place there, we can clearly see how the smallest details begin the untangling, and when the competition is of the quality of Hamilton and Verstappen, recovery tends to be that elusive one step out of reach.

Hamilton, leading, had been forced into making his second and final stop early, just halfway through the race, so as to retain track position over the closing Verstappen. Bottas was only 4.5sec behind the Red Bull at this point and furthermore the Red Bull was on the less durable medium tyres than the hard-shod Bottas. A selfish Bottas might have reckoned this a winnable race from there. Hamilton had been forced into too long a final stint so as to retain track position over the Red Bull, which was on tyres that would surely surrender before Bottas’. Valtteri could run longer than either of them and therefore be on the fastest tyres into his final stint from not very far behind.

“Bottas’ weekend just gradually slid away from him”

But instead of that, Mercedes brought Bottas in for his second stop as soon as there was a gap to drop him into – just two laps after Hamilton’s stop.

“Strategy-wise, we were on the defensive instead of attacking. I am quite surprised and it is not normal,” said a perplexed Bottas afterwards. It was because he’d been used in support of trying to win Hamilton the race.

Hamilton’s very early second stop (absolutely necessary to retain him the prized track position over the closing Red Bull) had made him extremely vulnerable in the last stint if Verstappen could delay his own second stop for long enough. The priority was to prevent Verstappen being able to do that – and Bottas was used to apply undercut pressure on Verstappen by pitting from close behind. Once Bottas came in and rejoined, Verstappen would have maybe two more laps before he had to pit to prevent Bottas undercutting ahead and in that way Verstappen’s tyre advantage into the late stages over Hamilton would be small.

It didn’t happen like that though; there was a problem with the wheel gun on Bottas’ right-front and he was delayed by around 8sec. Which meant Red Bull could keep Verstappen out for the optimum timing – which it judged at 11 laps later than Hamilton. Verstappen caught Hamilton with four laps to go but his overtake took him beyond the track limits and he was obliged to hand the place back, after which his tyres were done. So Hamilton took an impressive victory.

Bottas had been used to help Hamilton even at the expense of his own prospects. The ‘selfish’ driver Bottas aspired to be at the start of the season might have objected, but the logic of Mercedes running its race the way it did was incontestable. Bottas had put himself into support position by qualifying behind – and by being overtaken on the opening lap by Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari. By the time he’d re-passed that it was lap six and that’s where that 4.5sec deficit to the lead came from.

So, had he simply been outdriven by his team-mate in qualifying? Was that the defining difference? Maybe partly, but not wholly. He had only one set of new soft tyres for Q3 whereas Hamilton and Verstappen had two. So there was no banker lap then a riskier attack lap; just a single lap which had to be right. Why didn’t he have two sets left? Because early in Q1 his first lap on the softs (0.5sec slower than Hamilton’s) had not been deemed quick enough to make him invulnerable to slower cars benefiting from the track becoming quicker as he sat in the garage. Mercedes insisted he go out again to guard against that. He found over half a second, making his graduation more secure, but losing that extra set of softs in doing so.

“I disagreed with that,” he later pointed out. But he did it anyway. As it turned out, his first lap would have been comfortably good enough, with half a second to spare. But track evolution is an unpredictable thing. The point was, he might have been caught out. That first mediocre Q1 lap was ultimately what put Bottas in the support role – because to break out of that role would have meant outqualifying Hamilton in Q3, difficult enough in itself, but verging on impossible with only one attempt to Hamilton’s two.

Late race, he was far enough clear of fourth place that he could come in for a third stop, have a fresh set of tyres fitted and therefore set the fastest lap of the race, taking the extra point that goes with it. A point that would otherwise have gone to Verstappen (whose best lap was 0.7sec faster than Hamilton’s, giving some indication of the protect-and-preserve nature of Hamilton’s drive).

How to regroup from there? Imola was next and he’d been mighty – but unlucky – there last year, setting pole and scorching to a big lead on the first lap before then picking up debris which seriously damaged the car’s aero. With a straight run, he’d have won that race comfortably. That’s the groove he needed to find again. So even with Covid restrictions in place, he set about maximising his chances with a trip back to the factory in the UK.

“I went between the races to Brackley, to the simulator, tried to work on the set-up, trying to find answers, trying to achieve as much as I can really and unlock the performance,” said Bottas at Imola. “I lost count of how many set-up items we tried in the simulator. Coming here I think we have a good toolbox we have to choose from. But for sure it’s not like a couple of years ago where you could go all the time and a few days in a row. Within the restrictions, within the situation, we’re trying to make the most out of it. It’s the same for the team, we are really restricted on the development time so efficiency and planning is really the key.”

During Friday practice he was straight into a good place, fastest in both sessions, albeit without a good Red Bull reference as both Verstappen (broken driveshaft) and Sergio Pérez (collision with Esteban Ocon) suffered curtailed sessions. But it was clear that the Mercedes was much more difficult to balance around here than last year. It was taking a long time for the tyres to reach working temperature. His fastest times were coming on the second or third flying lap.

Into Saturday then and the track was yet cooler, which hardly helped. The Red Bulls were 0.5sec faster than Bottas or Hamilton in the morning practice. More tweaking before qualifying. Still a 5sec the tyre warm-up problem was there.

Bottas set a quick time in Q1 – but on his third consecutive lap. Hamilton, as ever when improvisation is required, was finding a way around it and was able to get his tyres up to temperature for the first flying lap. Bottas was unable to even repeat his Q1 time in Q3, where he was a disastrous eighth-fastest – with Hamilton sitting on pole ahead of the two Red Bulls. On both Q3 runs the tyres were under temperature at the start of the lap and Bottas had difficulties at the Tamburello chicane both times. In sectors two and three he was as quick as Hamilton. But he’d lost almost 0.4sec just in sector one. “I went into turn two and had a really sudden snap from the rear end and I lost a lot of time. The same in run two; I couldn’t trust the rear end.” This weekend was in danger of spiralling out of control in a much bigger way than Bahrain. A left-field technical challenge was the last thing he needed. Well, that or rain just before the start – which is what we got. Any problems in generating tyre temperatures would be exposed even more on intermediates on a cool, rainy track.

“Verstappen built up a 5sec lead over Hamilton in four laps”

Even Hamilton suffered from it. Verstappen outdragged him off the start and would lead throughout to give Red Bull- Honda its first win of the season. Hamilton’s tyres took an age to come fully in – and Verstappen built up a 5sec lead over him in four laps. Only then did Hamilton begin matching Verstappen’s times, pegging the gap. The enforced gentle early pace would come to have a bonus, though. It meant that when the tyres did finally reach proper working temperature, they had not been used as hard as those on the faster Red Bull. So Hamilton was catching as Verstappen’s inters were beginning to give up the ghost before the track was quite dry enough to switch to slicks.

This was shaping into another fascinating duel between the pair. A delay at Hamilton’s pitstop, caused by both front wheels being reluctant to come off, got Verstappen off the hook and still in the lead as they began the slick-tyred second phase of the race. Hamilton got another sniff thanks to Verstappen getting a bad run of backmarkers to lap and on the 29th lap he went for the inside of George Russell’s Williams into Tosa, where it was still damp offline. Too damp for the speed he took in – “I was just impatient,” he rued later of the incident which took him into the gravel trap. As he tried to spin turn his way out onto the solid ground he succeeded only in nosing the front of the car into the wall, breaking the front wing. It took an age to select reverse and by the time he rejoined he had lost a lap. Remarkably, he was rescued from the worst effects of this by Mercedes stablemates Russell and Bottas colliding at around 190mph on the run to Tamburello, the ensuing enormous accident bringing out the red flags. Russell had been trying to put a DRS pass on Bottas – which says everything about just how badly Bottas was struggling. The obvious pre-tensions of Bottas’ potential 2022 replacement at Mercedes overtaking him in a Williams could not be overlooked either.

After seeing that Bottas – still in the wrecked car’s cockpit – was okay, Russell screamed at him, asking if he’d been trying to kill them both. Bottas, for his part, felt he’d stuck to his line and had always left Russell a car’s width. Russell felt Bottas had made a slight move towards him, obliging him to move further right, onto the dampest part of the track and with no downforce from the DRS-open wing, the outer rear tyre simply couldn’t accept any more lateral load.

The Williams snapped hard left, rearing up over the Mercedes, its left-front wheel hitting Bottas’ halo side-on. When the halo was first introduced it was heavily criticised but so far it has probably saved the lives of Charles Leclerc (Spa 2018), Romain Grosjean (Bahrain 2020) and now Bottas.

“The halo has saved the lives of Leclerc, Grosjean and Bottas”

Before the restart the lapped cars (Hamilton included) were given their laps back (as happens under a normal safety car). This bought Hamilton around a minute and a half compared to where he’d have been without the red flag.

He restarted ninth and in the remaining 30-odd laps fought back up to second – far behind Verstappen. The final car he passed was the McLaren of Lando Norris who took a thoroughly deserved podium.

Bottas was left with a lot to understand. “Small differences in tyre temperature can have a very big impact on grip,” said Mercedes’ Andrew Shovlin afterwards. “We need to help Valtteri understand our weekend here. Struggling in the pack, he was losing the front end in the tow, again hurting the warm up. His struggle with warm up on the medium got him caught in that bunch of cars which is what triggered the sequence that ended his race. There were moments in the weekend where he looked like he was going to give Lewis a very tough time.”

He’s going to have to start accessing such moments more readily if he’s to keep that pre-season promise to himself.