When Lando Norris can win the 2025 F1 championship — and who can stop him

Lando Norris leads the Formula 1 world championship by 24 points. He’s won two consecutive grands prix and will start on pole in Las Vegas, but while the McLaren driver has a commanding position in the F1 title race, he can’t be crowned this weekend.

With 25 points available to the race winner, Norris could extend his lead over team-mate Oscar Piastri to a maximum of 49 points in Las Vegas, which would still be short of the 58 points available from the last two rounds of the season.

Victory for Norris and no points for Piastri in Las Vegas would mean that Norris could become champion after the Qatar sprint race next Saturday.

A more likely scenario, based on the average points scored by McLaren’s drivers in recent races, puts him on course to become this year’s Formula 1 world champion after the following day’s Qatar Grand Prix — the penultimate race of the year.

Piastri and Max Verstappen — who trails Norris by 49 points — are still in with a mathematical chance of winning the title, but with three races remaining, time is rapidly running out to close the substantial gap.

It’s possible, particularly for Piastri, who would re-take the lead of the championship in Las Vegas if he wins the Grand Prix and Norris fails to score; we have already seen large points swings this season.

At one point Piastri was leading Norris by 34 points and Verstappen by 104, but the Australian hasn’t outscored his team-mate since the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August. He crashed out of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and has lacked pace at crucial moments.

Norris has also halted Verstappen’s charge. At one point this autumn, Verstappen looked to be on course for one of F1’s greatest comebacks, having won three in four races from the start of September. But Norris’s recent victories in Mexico and Brazil have put him firmly back in charge.

Read on to find out when he’s most likely to win the world championship, as well as our analysis of why Piastri and Verstappen still have an outside chance of winning the championship.

2025 F1 championship points after Sao Paulo GP

F1 championship advantage: Norris

Lando Norris’s season came alive after his retirement at the Dutch Grand Prix. Until that point, he had been losing ground to Piastri. Since then, Norris has gained points on his team-mate in every race weekend.

Ahead of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, Norris explained that the change was largely from “a mental side”, which he began working on after a difficult start to the year.

“Prior to Zandvoort, I think I started to be on the right track,” said Norris. “Zandvoort, I would have finished second. Oscar was always going to win there, but that was just a big step back in terms of positioning.

“The change had already started by that point. By the time we got Zandvoort out the way, it gave me a bit more time to kind of refocus, and then it was more evident – which I think is why you probably use Zandvoort as that turning point.”

The graph above shows Norris’s trajectory since the Dutch Grand Prix. He’s scored an average of just under 18 points per grand prix since then, putting him on course to win the title this season with 448 points if he carries on at the same rate.

Piastri’s slump and Verstappen’s recovery are clear here too: the Red Bull driver’s 20.5-point average over the same period will see him pass Piastri, who has an average of 9.5 points per GP since Zandvoort, by the end of the year unless the momentum changes.

Neither driver can challenge Norris at this rate. If they do continue amassing points with similar frequency, then Norris will be crowned champion after the Qatar Grand Prix, when he’d be around 32 points ahead, with 25 points available from the final round in Abu Dhabi.

Just winning is no longer enough for rivals: as seen in the graph above, if Piastri wins every race, Norris would still be champion by finishing second.

In reality, we’ve seen McLaren lose its dominant edge as the season has gone on, with Red Bull and Mercedes regularly in competition for race victories. Norris’s title hopes will be boosted if rival teams continued winning; their drivers taking away the big points that Piastri needs to catch up.

Max Verstappen is now almost two race wins behind in the championship, so Norris would have to suffer multiple disasters to bring the reigning champion back into contention.

Piastri’s remaining hopes

He’s 24 points behind Norris and there are three rounds left (including the Qatar sprint), so the maths is simple: Piastri needs eight points per round to become world champion.

As this would probably entail him winning more races than Norris in this period, then a draw would suffice for Piastri. Both McLaren drivers have seven wins this season and if a championship is tied, then the driver with most race victories is declared the winner.

Piastri has already shown that the task is far from impossible; he won three races on the bounce earlier this year in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Miami. But, as shown above, not even a run of three GP victories and one sprint win would be enough if Norris finished second behind him in every race.

The former 2025 championship leader could also benefit from sheer bad luck: Norris has already had one car failure this year, at the Dutch Grand Prix, not to mention his error in Canada when he drove into Piastri and out of the race. Another similar incident in Vegas, combined with a Piastri win would see the lead of the championship switch, and then the battle really would be on.

Verstappen’s chance of a historic comeback

Don’t rule out a driver who cut his 104-point championship deficit to 36 points in five races, even if he’s now two race wins behind Norris, and could be out of contention by the end of the Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend.

Verstappen’s best hope is for the McLarens to collide again — as they have done already: Norris retired in Canada after crashing into Piastri, they clashed again in Singapore, and then they both retired in the US sprint race after being caught up in a multi-car pile-up.

That’s not the only route to a championship upset though. Red Bull and Mercedes have shown the pace to win races. If they can push the McLarens down the running order, then Verstappen has the chance to gain the average 13 points per round that he needs to retain the title.

It remains a long shot: Verstappen would have to win every remaining race while finished, on average, sixth or lower in the remaining races. Aside from two retirements, he’s finished lower than fourth just once this season.

Who will win if there’s a draw in the 2025 F1 championship?

If two or more drivers finish the season level on points, then their final position is initially decided on the number of race victories each has.

Piastri and Norris currently have seven wins apiece.