When will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 championship

There’s no better analogy for Geroge Russell’s Formula 1 title hopes than him pulling over to the side of the track in Malaysia with power unit failure. Or at least there wasn’t until he spun out of the lead of the Singapore sprint race and hit the wall.

It leaves his Mercedes team-mate Kimi Antonelli with an 89-point gap at the top of the F1 championship table with seven grands prix and a maximum of 175 points remaining.

If Antonelli wins today’s Singapore Grand Prix and Russell – who will start at the back – finishes fourth or lower, then there’s a mathematical chance of the title to be decided at the very next round in the US.

But at the current rate of scoring, Antonelli is set to be crowned at the Mexico City Grand Prix on November 1 when he’ll be 20 years and 68 days old; he would be the youngest F1 champion in history, taking that accolade from Sebastian Vettel by more than three years.

However, he won’t be sizing up a bigger trophy cabinet just yet: nothing can be taken for granted in F1, particularly when six drivers remain in contention for the title.

Among the contenders is Max Verstappen who has something of a track record with comebacks. Here is how the 2026 title can be decided, from the most likely outcome to the unprecedented scenarios that would need a minor miracle.

Who can still win the 2026 F1 championship?

While six drivers might be in contention, that list is likely to get much shorter very quickly. To remain an unlikely contender in the title race, drivers will need to be within at least 149 points of Antonelli after the Singapore Grand Prix, which puts Lando Norris in a precarious situation, trailing as he is by 136 points. Verstappen and Leclerc could also drop out if Antonelli wins and they score few points.

One round later, after the US GP there will only be 125 points remaining, which would see Leclerc, Verstappen and Norris out of the title race at their current deficit, even if Antonelli doesn’t stretch his lead further.

Of course, if Verstappen converts pole in Singapore to victory and Antonelli can’t make progress from fourth on the grid, then the four-time champion keeps his (faint) hopes alive for longer

F1 championship points after Round 17, Singapore GP

When can Antonelli win the F1 championship?

Singapore Grand Prix, October 11 CANNOT WIN

Antonelli’s lead is not big enough: even if he wins and Russell fails to finish, he’d leave with a 114 point lead and 150 still available.

US Grand Prix, October 25 POSSIBLE

Given Russell’s recent fortunes, it’s possible that Antonelli could win the Singapore and US Grands Prix while his team-mate scores no more than 13 points.
If, at the same time, Lewis Hamilton scores 28 points or fewer, then Antonelli would become champion at Circuit of the Americas.  Texas bartenders shouldn’t raise their hopes though: in Singapore he’ll have to get past both Ferraris and Verstappen, which all look pacy this weekend.

Mexico City Grand Prix, November 1 LIKELY

Antonelli has scored an average of 18.4 points at the 16 grands prix so far this season, and Russell has scored 12.6. Those figures have remained fairly steady since the Belgian Grand Prix in July.

It’s no stretch to assume that the trend continues, which would see Antonelli become world champion in three races’ time when, going by the averages, he would have 380 points to Russell’s 274; an unassailable gap with just four races and 100 points left.

That projection has Antonelli finishing the season on 454 points, 130 points ahead of Russell – an impressive margin that allows plenty of room for errors or mechanical misfortune, but nowhere near the 290 points between world champion Verstappen and second-placed Sergio Perez in 2023.

How can George Russell win the F1 championship?

It’s unlikely that Russell will be contemplating his slim chances of title success from the back row of the grid in Singapore: it’s not completely over but the odds are so long that we’re now obliged to phrase it as “mathematically possible”.

The maths isn’t the difficult bit: from 89 points down, Russell has to outscore Antonelli by 90 points over the next seven grands prix; an average of almost 13 points each weekend. Given his average score per race is almost six points behind Antonelli, it would require some swing in performance.

If Russell wins every remaining grand prix, he’ll finish on 411 points and would need Antonelli to finish fourth or lower in each round. That would see the current championship leader losing to a seven consecutive race-winning Russell on the final day of the season.

Given Russell’s Singapore starting position and the likelihood of having to take another engine penalty, Antonelli is unlikely to be losing much sleep over this scenario.

And Hamilton?

If Hamilton won his eighth world championship in 2026, the feat would surpass anything he’s achieved so far. Seven wins from seven would just be the start: Antonelli would then have to finish an average of fifth or lower in each race, which would give him the title by at least one point.

Max Verstappen: another epic comeback?

Last year Max Verstappen overturned a 104 point deficit to title leader Oscar Piastri, finishing four points ahead of him in the title race and two behind Lando Norris, as his Red Bull came good at the end of the season.

This year that pattern looks set to repeat after his first victory of the season in Sepang, followed by a sprint race win in Singapore and pole for the GP. The omens are positive; the championship table is less so.

Last year, Verstappen needed nine races to draw level with Piastri. This year, he only has seven – and is a further 28 points down to Antonelli.

Let’s imagine that his Red Bull is just as fast at the varying circuits that remain on the calendar and he can win all seven races. Antonelli would have to score 45 points or fewer – seventh place at each race or lower – if Verstappen was to claim a fifth title.

What if the final races are cancelled?

Unrest in the Middle East raises the possibility of the final two rounds – Qatar and Abu Dhabi – being cancelled. F1 is understood to have retained Imola as a reserve, which would mean 25 fewer points available this season.

In that case, Antonelli would be on course to win the title at Circuit of the Americas after Singapore, based on his and his rivals’ average points scores so far this season.

However, the achievement may not be known at the time. F1 is adamant that the final two rounds of the year will go ahead, so if a cancellation is announced late in the year, Antonelli may have been champion without realising it.