MPH: Can easier-to-drive Ferrari beat bold Red Bull in 2024?

During pre-season testing it was interesting to hear both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc comment favourably upon the improvement in the Ferrari’s balance compared to last year’s car. Couple that with the very promising race simulation run of Sainz on Thursday which suggested its tyre degradation was a whole lot better than last year, and we potentially have the basis of something promising for Scuderia fans. With the proviso of course that it may not be enough – depending upon what Red Bull in particular has been able to achieve.

At the launch of this car, the SF24, technical director Enrique Cardile underlined that although this was a clean sheet design, the philosophy has not been to re-invent the wheel but to give its drivers something in which they can have confidence to push. Although last year’s car could be quick – and averaged only around 0.15sec slower than the totally dominant Red Bull in qualifying – it could be something of a Russian roulette car, especially through high-speed corners.

One lap it would be fine, the next it would snap viciously out of line, seemingly dependent upon which way and how hard the wind was blowing. The speeds at which this generation of cars are attaining through fast corners and their sheer bulk means that when they let go, they do so at very high lateral-g and take up a lot of the track width. It’s not an easy recovery, nor a soothing one. Even Charles Leclerc, perhaps the driver most at ease with oversteer of anyone on the grid, did not like it.

There was an aerodynamic stall seemingly inherent to the outwash aerodynamic principle of the car, whereby the big bluff sidepod fronts would create a high-pressure area in front of them which the oncoming airflow would swerve around to avoid, thereby out-washing the flow away from the body sides. In theory this is a very efficient way of conditioning that airflow, as the low-pressure area behind the sidepods and between the rear wheels then pulls it back in, to do its work around the diffuser. But there was something about it which made that flow less than totally robust.

So where does it look like Ferrari is standing on the eve of the season? It certainly looks to be Red Bull’s closest rival. But in contrast to the Ferrari, the new RB20 is highly ambitious in concept. Far from resting on its laurels, Red Bull appears to have fundamentally re-assessed how to resolve one of the key conflicts inherent in this generation of cars – that of a consistent balance through the corner. Somehow shrinking the radiator masses has allowed them to be brought down lower and more centralised, respectively lowering the centre of gravity and the polar moment of inertia. So it potentially should get the quick turn in without that building to mid-corner oversteer. There should be less momentum to direction change and therefore less need to induce a false understeer in the turn-in phase in order to keep it stable later in the corner. But it’s a very different car to the dominant RB19 and there may yet be problems associated with that.

Does steady and diligent beat brave and ambitious? Sometimes. But in F1, not usually.