Karun Chandhok: Hamilton to Ferrari — ‘He didn’t feel like being anyone’s stopgap’

The Formula 1 driver market was completely flat as last season rolled along. With an unprecedented scenario of every team retaining their driver line-up for the new season we all felt a bit robbed of the fun that silly season brings. At a time when Max Verstappen seems to be able to rattle off wins with an alarming frequency and ease, the sport really missed having a bit of intrigue in the paddock.

In contrast, we started this year with the biggest driver swap probably since Damon Hill was sacked by Williams in 1996 thanks to Lewis Hamilton, whose move from silver to red announced in February means the 2025 driver market fun has kicked off nice and early. With Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris confirming extensions at Ferrari and McLaren, that’s taken two heavy hitters off the radar along with George Russell and Oscar Piastri.

Over the Bahrain Grand Prix weekend Toto Wolff recalled how a few years ago Mercedes was offered the chance to sign up Verstappen before Red Bull did, but at the time it had Nico Rosberg and Lewis locked in so had to pass on the opportunity. Wolff was keen to not let the young F2 prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli slip through the net as he does seem to be the next big star on the horizon.

Lewis’s move to Ferrari caught Toto and Mercedes by surprise. I suspect that their plan was two more years for Lewis before he retired into the sunset giving Antonelli time to prepare in F2 for a couple of seasons or maybe even one season of F2 followed by a year driving for Williams gaining experience.

Hamilton quite clearly didn’t feel like being anyone’s stopgap and has taken matters into his own hands by making the jump before he was pushed which has left Mercedes in a pickle and created a headache for Carlos Sainz.

The Spaniard has done a solid job at Ferrari being the only non-Red Bull driver to win since November 2022 and taking an impressive victory at last month’s Australian GP; so much for being a support act for golden child Leclerc. Ultimately over one lap in qualifying, the Monegasque has marginally had the upper hand over the last two seasons. But they’ve been pretty evenly matched for points in 2023 if you factor in the DNFs and bad luck for both drivers so really the only reason for Ferrari to get rid of Carlos was if one of the two established megastars in Lewis or Max came available.

“There’s a strong case for Mercedes doing a direct swap and signing Sainz”

Could Red Bull be an option for Sainz? Amid the off-track chaos at the moment, you’d have to say that Sergio Pérez has started the season well, playing the rear gunner role perfectly while Daniel Ricciardo has been behind Yuki Tsunoda so far this year. However I don’t see them making a decision soon. If Sainz wants to lock his future down, a move to Aston Martin could be a good fit. Does Aston swap one Spaniard for another who is over a decade younger? On current evidence it seems like Fernando Alonso is defying the rules of ageing so it’ll be a tricky call to make.

There’s a strong argument for Mercedes doing a direct swap with Ferrari and signing Sainz on a two-year deal. He’s proved he can cope with the extreme pressure of delivering wins and podiums as a Ferrari driver. The reason why I say two years as a minimum is that the 2026 rules are considerably different from the current ones we have now and I do believe that the teams will greatly benefit from continuity across the regulation changes. Antonelli will still only be 20 years old during the 2027 season and if he’s as good in F1 as his junior formula record suggests, he’ll be worth waiting for.

Mercedes is in an odd position at the moment. It’s altered the concept of its car and had significant changes behind the scenes for this season but on the early evidence, it’s pretty much where it finished last year. Having an experienced driver line-up for 2025 will be handy as it tries to course-correct prior to the new regs coming as it will want to hit the ground running in 2026.

I suspect that Audi and Andreas Seidl would dearly love to have another Sainz on their motor sport books, alongside the Dakar-winning Sainz Sr. The reality is that it’s going to be at least 2029 before Audi is truly battling at the front in F1 and I’m not sure Carlos Jr wants to spend four of his prime seasons waiting for that.

With over half the grid out of contract at the end of this season, there are a lot of moving parts. Let’s assume Verstappen stays at Red Bull, you’d have to say that Sainz, even before his Australian victory, is the most attractive free agent on the market.

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A former racing driver in Formula 1, WEC and Formula E, Karun Chandhok is an analyst for Sky Sports F1 

Follow Karun on Twitter @karunchandhok