Can McLaren keep the peace? - What to watch out for in the US GP

The Circuit of the Americas is set to host the fourth sprint weekend of the 2025 season as Formula 1 kicks off its North American leg with the United States Grand Prix.

At the centre of the drama sits McLaren, whose carefully balanced ‘papaya rules’ are under strain following the clash between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in Singapore.

Their fight for supremacy is being shadowed by Max Verstappen, whose recent run of form has reignited hopes of a late title charge, and George Russell, whose Singapore win hints at a potential spoiler role in Texas.

Here’s a look at the main storylines ahead of the Austin weekend.

Will papaya rules still be in play?

The simmering intra-team tension at McLaren will be one of the defining storylines of the United States Grand Prix weekend.

The team has spent most of the season coordinating strategies to maximise collective results while attempting to be as fair as possible to each of its drivers while allowing them to race each other, always under the so-called ‘papaya rules’ which require them not to crash into each other.

But things may have changed after the Singapore GP, and the dynamic between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris could be shifting into more combative territory going into the Austin weekend.

At Marina Bay, Norris hit Piastri’s car as he muscled his way into second place at the start. The Australian was clearly upset about the incident and about the way McLaren didn’t find it necessary to ask the Briton to give back the position, despite having broken the cardinal rule in the team’s protocols.

Norris insisted he was simply racing hard — which he was — and surely McLaren will have discussed the situation ahead of this weekend’s race.

But team boss Andrea Stella still faces a delicate balancing act in Austin, and in the other remaining races.

The question now is whether the papaya rules can survive the growing tension between Stella’s two drivers: Piastri knows he can’t afford to keep losing points to Norris if he wasnt to hold onto his lead in the drivers’ championship, and Norris showed he is willing to go beyond the edge of those rules to reduce the gap to the Australian.

Using more team orders risks aggravating an already tense situation. Letting them race freely risks a repeat of Singapore, or worse.

There have been suggestions that McLaren, with the constructors’ title now secured, should allow Piastri and Norris to race freely. The drivers might welcome it, and the fans would definitely love it after such a tame title fight, but in Stella’s mind, there will be many other considerations that might be evident in how he decides to approach the US Grand Prix weekend.

Verstappen’s shadow looms large

One of those considerations in Stella’s mind will be the pace of Max Verstappen’s Red Bull.

Red Bull’s upgrades have finally given him a car worthy of his relentless consistency, and the ripple effect has been unmistakable in recent races.

The gap between Verstappen and Piastri has gone down from 104 points after Zandvoort to 63 after Singapore.

Those 63 points are still a massive gap with six races left, and under normal circumstances, there is no way Verstappen will be able to outscore both McLaren drivers by enough points to have a realistic shot.

But Verstappen’s recent form suggests momentum has been shifting his way, and few in the paddock doubt his ability to turn up the pressure to make Piastri and Norris’s lives more interesting.

The McLaren duo’s tangle in Singapore served as a timely reminder that every misstep is magnified in a title fight, and with Verstappen poised to pounce on any lost opportunity, McLaren simply can’t afford to give away points through in-fighting or avoidable collisions.

The Dutchman thrives in precisely these circumstances and, at this point, he has nothing to lose: a title shot wasn’t on the cards for him for a while.

If McLaren stumbles again in Austin, Verstappen’s bid could gather real force, turning what still looks like an outside shot into a serious late-season charge.

Will Russell be a factor too?

While Verstappen’s recovery is adding an extra layer of complexity to the championship battle, George Russell’s form in Singapore suggests McLaren will have another factor to worry about in Austin.

With Mercedes finding a more consistent performance window in recent races, Russell could prove to be an influential disruptor in the closing stretch.

Russell has outscored both McLaren drivers significantly in the previous two races, helping Verstappen become a bigger factor in the process.

As Piastri and Norris negotiate the fine line between cooperation and competition, all while keeping a wary eye on Verstappen’s resurgence, Russell’s presence in the mix means that any slip could be extra costly.

Austin’s flowing layout has suited Mercedes in the past, and if Russell can carry forward his Singapore form, the McLaren-Verstappen conflict might gain another player.

Adding even more intrigue to the Austin weekend is Russell’s contract situation.

With his current deal still up for renewal soon, every outstanding performance strengthens his hand in talks with Mercedes.

The win in Singapore couldn’t have come at a better time, reasserting his value and reminding both rivals and his own team of his race-winning potential.

Can Ferrari be a podium contender? 

Ferrari arrives in Austin after one of its worst spells of results this season and without any optimism that things are going to get better.

The Scuderia has gone from second in the standings to facing the prospect of dropping to fourth, having been outscored by Red Bull 96-38 in the last four races. And that despite Red Bull being essentially a one-driver team.

Charles Leclerc won the US GP last year — his last victory to date — but Ferrari has failed to live up to the expectations on any of the tracks where it won last year, so there’s little reason to believe that pattern will be broken this weekend.

Even a podium finish looks unrealistic given Ferrari’s performance in recent races.

Leclerc himself admitted after Singapore that Ferrari’s hopes of achieving anything significant in the remaining races is a long shot. “It’s tough. It’s very tough,” he said. “We are not strong at the moment. We are struggling massively with the car. It’s not easy.

“I wish I could say I’m positive for the rest of the season, but I don’t think there’s anything in the car at the moment that proves me that we are going to do a step forward.”

With that in mind, the Maranello squad faces another weekend in which it might have to worry more about not being lost in the midfield than about trying to beat McLaren, Red Bull or Mercedes.

Sprint and tyre choices

The US Grand Prix marks the return of the sprint weekends, the first one since Belgium and the first of the three remaining ones in the six grand prix weekends left.

The double-race event adds another twist to an already tense dynamic at the front of the field, not to mention an extra eight points that will be up for grabs.

Sprints are not often races in which drivers go all out, but in the current championship situation, there might be an extra element of volatility given that none of the frontrunners can afford to lose any ground.

Those eight points for a sprint win might not sound like much in the first half of the season, but with six races to go, their value is significantly higher.

In another attempt to spice up the weekend, Pirelli is bringing three non-consecutive tyre compounds for the second time this year.

This time, the C1 will be the hard, the C3 will be the medium, and the C4 will act as the soft. The selection was already introduced at Spa, but the poor weather meant the test was inconclusive.

Pirelli’s goal is once again to have at least some drivers opt for a two-stop strategy by running mediums and softs.

So far, nothing Pirelli has tried has prevented one-stop races, and this latest one might be the last idea it can come up with before the season ends.