From hunter to hunted: Norris's next big test - What to watch for in the Sao Paulo GP

Lando Norris‘s emphatic victory in Mexico didn’t just end Oscar Piastri‘s long run at the top – it restored the McLaren driver to the position many expected him to hold from the start of the season: championship leader.

That means that as Formula 1 heads to Brazil, Norris faces a new kind of pressure.

Just behind him, Max Verstappen cannot afford another setback like in Mexico, but a victory at Interlagos offers him a crucial chance to turn the momentum back in his favour.

Here are the main storylines to watch out for in Brazil this weekend.

How will Norris react to being the hunted?

After a strong end to 2024 and a pre-season during which McLaren looked like the clear favourite, Norris is back to where many expected he would be from the start of 2025. That is, leading the championship.

For the second time in his Formula 1 career, Norris is in the top spot after a crushing victory in the Mexican Grand Prix.

The McLaren driver led the standings from the start of the season in Australia until the fourth round in Bahrain before Piastri moved to the top and stayed there for the next 16 rounds.

Heading into Brazil, Norris faces the harder part: staying where he is.

Since Piastri won at Zandvoort, Norris has thrived in the role of the pursuer, piling pressure on his team-mate, beating him at every round since to finally move ahead, by just one point, in Mexico.

At Interlagos, that dynamic will change again.

Norris’s calm approach has been one of his greatest assets, and while many drivers prefer to be the chased over the chaser, defending a championship lead demands a different kind of mentality, particularly at this stage of the season.

Piastri also might need to rethink his approach now he is the hunter, but in order to do that, the Australian needs to re-find the form that made him championship favourite not so long ago.

The momentum is with Norris, and it’s up to Piastri to put an end to that, at least in what concerns their own intra-team fight.

Once again, McLaren will also face its own balancing act; with both drivers separated by a single point, the team can ill afford internal friction.

Fortunately for the team, the one-point difference means it is unlikely to have to make any tough decisions just yet if Verstappen’s threat gets bigger.

Mexico showed the best of Norris as the hunter. Brazil will show whether he can be equally sharp as the hunted, defending not just his lead, but a growing sense that this could be his championship to lose.

Verstappen can’t afford to lose ground

Despite being crushed by Norris in Mexico, Verstappen somehow managed to beat the odds and still come out of the weekend with a smaller gap to the championship lead.

Granted, the way Norris dominated from pole should be a concern for Red Bull, even if the challenge of Interlagos is different than that of Mexico.

There is no doubt that Verstappen’s recovery to become a real championship contender has been remarkable, but 36 points with four races left still remains a high mountain to climb.

Verstappen winning in Brazil would set up a fascinating three-way fight for the title in the final three races of the year: victory in the sprint and the grand prix would leave him, in the worst-case scenario, just 28 points behind Norris.

Interlagos has long been a happy hunting ground for Verstappen. It’s where his wet-weather brilliance, strategic intuition and raw aggression tend to converge.

If Red Bull can return to its pre-Mexico form in Brazil, a strong result will increase the pressure on McLaren even further.

However, the flipside is equally stark for Verstappen.

Another weekend like Mexico could all but end his hopes of making his recovery come to fruition, and anything that’s not finishing ahead of the McLarens could be terminal.

While Norris and Piastri can still afford to be outscored by their direct rivals, Verstappen can’t really come out of Brazil with a bigger points gap.

In that sense, Interlagos might see the world champion claw right back into real contention or almost out of it for good.

Will Ferrari or Mercedes be a factor?

Neither Ferrari nor Mercedes appears to be too bothered about finishing a distant second behind McLaren in the standings, so asking the public to care about that particular battle might be optimistic.

However, both teams’ fluctuating form makes for an intriguing theme in the remaining races in the context of how they will affect the championship fight ahead of them.

Ferrari arrives in Brazil after appearing to have made progress in the US and Mexico, and having regained second place in the constructors’ championship, mainly as a result of having two drivers scoring more consistently than Mercedes or Red Bull.

Over a year after its last win, Ferrari fighting for victory appears to be out of the question under normal circumstances, but Charles Leclerc‘s second place in Mexico showed he can still affect the title narrative.

Ferrari’s form has fluctuated wildly in 2025, its SF-25 strong on traction and braking stability but still prone to tyre degradation over long stints.

If Brazil offers warmer conditions, the stronger version of Ferrari might show up at Interlagos.

Mercedes, meanwhile, will be hoping for a cooler weekend after looking like the weakest of the top four teams in Austin and Mexico.

Kinder track temperatures and a circuit that demands well-rounded car performance offer Mercedes a good opportunity to regain momentum, after admitting it lost its advantage over its rivals in the last two races.

While neither Ferrari nor Mercedes looks capable of winning on pure pace, both could still play a decisive supporting role.

Engine penalties are looming

Another intriguing factor in the championship fight, engine penalties might play a critical role in determining the outcome in the last four rounds of the season.

Twenty races, including three sprints, into the season, teams are operating at or near the limit of the allowed power unit components.

Verstappen, Norris and Piastri are all at risk of grid penalties for engine changes.

Verstappen currently faces the biggest risk, already exceeding allocations on his MGU-H and Control Electronics due to earlier component changes this season.

If he introduces a new ICE or turbo component in Brazil or subsequent events, he will face a 10-place grid penalty.

Norris and Piastri are both close to their fourth allocated ICE and turbo components, with usage pushed to the limit after mid-season power unit failures and upgrades.

Norris notably suffered an ICE-related failure at Zandvoort; the team repaired and reused parts to avoid immediate penalties, but any new component introduction will almost certainly trigger grid drops.

Piastri also faces similar risks with his turbocharger and MGU-K nearing usage limits.

In such a tight championship, managing engine penalties tactically could be as important as on-track performance in deciding the outcome.

Weather chaos might make a return

Not uncommonly, the weather at Interlagos this weekend looks set to inject more unpredictability into the weekend, particularly affecting the sprint race on Saturday.

Current forecasts suggest a dry start to Friday’s practice session, but afternoon and evening thundery showers are highly likely.

Saturday presents the biggest weather challenge, with a strong chance of wet and stormy conditions for the sprint itself.

Sunday’s main race forecast looks relatively dry but cooler, with temperatures dropping to around 18°C.

There is only a slight chance of light rain, so conditions are expected to be more stable for the race, although given the track’s history with unpredictable weather, anything might be possible.