McLaren doesn't need a Piastri revival now - What to watch out for in Qatar GP

A McLaren driver was and is expected to win the title, and anything less will be seen as a massive missed opportunity.

Norris is still the favourite by some margin, but the non-score in Las Vegas has also brought the possibility of losing to Verstappen an awful lot closer than anyone at McLaren would like.

The Lusail layout compounds the pressure. Its long, high-speed sections and flowing nature traditionally reward cars with aerodynamic stability and predictable balance, strengths McLaren has generally carried this year.

But it is also a circuit where small operational errors are magnified. Track evolution is steep across the weekend, wind conditions can swing dramatically, and tyre wear can punish cars that struggle with thermal management.

For McLaren, the priority is simple: execute flawlessly and leave nothing to chance. That means avoiding strategic errors, ensuring no procedural oversights, and giving Norris the clean, controlled weekend he needs to secure the title.

Any further slip-up risks leaving the door wide open for Verstappen.

Verstappen needs another miracle

Verstappen may have reignited the title fight with his Las Vegas victory, but Qatar demands something improbable: back-to-back weekends in which everything aligns perfectly for him while McLaren implodes.

The Red Bull driver may have executed his Vegas race perfectly, but it was McLaren’s disqualification that gifted Verstappen a lifeline he had no right to expect so late in the year.

It’s anyone’s guess how competitive Red Bull will be in Qatar.

Verstappen won the race last year, but that won’t mean much given the fluctuations in form between McLaren and Red Bull this season.

For the championship to swing again, Verstappen needs yet another perfect alignment of pace and execution. He must outscore Norris significantly – probably by double digits – to carry a credible shot into Abu Dhabi.

That requires not just Red Bull delivering a flawless weekend but McLaren stumbling again in a way that feels increasingly unlikely unless catastrophe strikes.

Verstappen keeps producing miracles week in, week out. Qatar will demand another one.

McLaren quietly needs Piastri not to rebound

Piastri’s recent run of underwhelming results may have been rough on the Australian once seen as the title favourite, but in the context of the championship battle, his subdued form has unintentionally offered McLaren one strategic advantage: clarity.

With Norris now locked in a knife-edge title fight that could be decided by a handful of points, McLaren needs its weekends to orbit around one driver only.

A resurgent Piastri, a positive outcome in the long-term, would introduce complications that the team can’t really afford heading into Qatar. At least until Verstappen is out of mathematical contention.

The Australian hasn’t been on the podium for six consecutive race weekends now, and in those six grands prix he has been outscored by five of the other six drivers in the top seven in the championship, Lewis Hamilton being the exception.

But should Piastri rediscover his peak form at Lusail, threatening to take points from Norris and make him more vulnerable to Verstappen’s charge, McLaren could face difficult split-strategy scenarios, intra-team track position battles, or moments where its drivers’ ambitions collide with its title priorities at the worst possible time.

This was a factor for a big part of the season for McLaren, but faded as Piastri started to struggle after his win in Zandvoort.

With Verstappen’s threat now so large, Norris doesn’t need a faster or more assertive team-mate – he needs a wingman, even if nobody at McLaren will say that out loud.

Pretty much the only scenario in which McLaren can benefit from a stronger Piastri is one in which Norris always finishes ahead of Verstappen.

Will mandatory two-stop rule ruin the race?

For the second time in three years, Pirelli has imposed a strict limit for Sunday’s race in Qatar: no tyre set may be used for more than 25 laps.

With 57 laps to cover, the rule effectively forces every driver into at least two pitstops. No exceptions or creative workarounds.

It’s a rare (but not new) level of intervention, introduced because Lusail’s fast, loaded corners and aggressive kerbs have repeatedly pushed tyres to the edge of structural integrity.

After last year’s event, several tyres were found to have concerning internal wear, prompting Pirelli to lock in a hard cap for 2025, just like it did in 2023, although back then the limit was 18 laps instead of this year’s 25.

In theory, a compulsory two-stop format could enliven a race, even though, as this season’s Monaco GP showed, it can also have no effect.

More stops mean more chances for mistakes, more variability in pace and track position, and less incentive for drivers to crawl through tyre-saving marathons.

But by removing the freedom to choose between one stop or two stops, the rule may achieve the opposite effect.

When strategy is dictated from the outside, races tend to flatten out. Everyone pits within the same window, everyone knows what everyone else is doing, and the tactical element evaporates.

Teams can’t play the long game, take risks on stint length, or exploit degradation trends because those variables simply don’t exist anymore.

In fairness, most of the current races are straightforward one-stop affairs, but with tyre life predetermined and strategy homogenised, Qatar risks losing one of the few layers of unpredictability left in the current F1 era.

Aston in the spotlight as Horner rumours swirl

Aston Martin will be one of the centres of attention during the Qatar weekend after a week filled with rumours about yet another change in leadership.

Christian Horner has been increasingly linked with a senior role at Aston, potentially replacing Andy Cowell as team principal.

Horner would become the team’s fourth F1 boss since 2021 after Otmar Szafnauer, Mike Krack and Cowell.

The appeal for owner Lawrence Stroll is obvious: Horner brings two decades of proven leadership, political sharpness and a track record of building a title-winning team in Red Bull.

With Adrian Newey already embedded and working on the 2026 project, the idea of reuniting one of F1’s most successful partnerships has gained a lot of momentum.

The speculation comes after an underwhelming run of results that has seen Aston drop to eighth place in the standings, having scored just 10 points in the last seven GP weekends.

The Horner chatter has been a convenient distraction from what has been a genuinely weak end to the season, shifting the spotlight from Aston’s on-track struggles to its potential off-track overhaul.