Russell vs Hamilton: why Mercedes match-up is the one to watch as F1 returns — MPH

F1

George Russell and Lewis Hamilton are the most closely-matched F1 team-mates so far this season. With Mercedes likely to be nearer the front after the summer break, seeing who comes out on top will be compelling, writes Mark Hughes

Lewis Hamilton next to George Russell in the 2022 Hungarian GP drivers parade

Arpad Kurucz/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Despite George Russell’s pole in Hungary last time out, Mercedes hadn’t suddenly made the W13 into a rocketship. It simply got the tyres working, for once, on a day when Ferrari did not and when Red Bull was not represented in Q3 (Sergio Perez out in Q2, Max Verstappen PU glitch). The W13 was still in reality around 0.5sec off the pace. As demonstrated by Verstappen winning comfortably from 10th on the grid.

But from Spa next weekend we have the new technical directive regarding plank flexibility coming into force. Could that make the crucial difference? Could it bridge that 0.5sec chasm?

It is estimated that the Ferrari/Red Bull interpretation of the plank regs used so far – whereby the plank mounting method means there is a gap between the plank and floor in which the plank can flex, giving a more consistent aerodynamic platform – has allowed them to run 5-6mm lower on rear ride height. That would typically be worth 0.2-0.3sec of lap time.

So maybe the new TD will not, of itself, change the competitive order between the three teams. But it seems likely to reduce Merc’s deficit. Even if it doesn’t allow it to be dictating race outcomes, it might at least put it into territory where it could be a contender, applying pressure and ready to pounce on any struggles at Red Bull or Ferrari.

Blurred photo of George Russell Mercedes at the 2022 Miami Grand Prix

Mercedes’ bouncing issue from earlier in the year has been significantly reduced

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

A few races ago Mercedes couldn’t even run its plank on the ground so extreme was its bouncing problem. Since around Canada time it has at least been able to do that and therefore put itself into a position to benefit from the new TD.

With a more consistent car and less extreme experimentation in trying to fully understand its problems, we should now get a more definitive read on the Lewis Hamilton/George Russell comparison. It’s already a fascinating match-up, but becomes more so the quicker the car is.

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In the 13 races of the season so far, it has been possible to compare then in qualifying nine times (so removing wet qualifying when track position has a disproportionate effect on lap time differences, taking out mechanical issues for one or the other etc). In those nine events the qualifying difference has been tiny. As an average, it currently favours Russell by less than two-hundredths of a second. But in terms of score, Hamilton has been genuinely faster five times to the four of Russell.* It’s close enough that the overall advantage could swing between them within one race. In the races Russell has had a better rub of the green with regard to safety cars (twice their timing has vaulted him past Hamilton on days he would otherwise have finished behind) and that is reflected in the points table. But on actual raw performance, this is the closest driver match-up on the grid. By far.

Given the huge potential of Russell on display at both Williams and on the occasion of his Mercedes stand-in at Sakhir 2020, that closeness should come as no surprise. Yes, Hamilton stands as the most successful of all time but past performances don’t count in the straight match-up against the watch.

With Verstappen’s dominant championship advantage, watching Hamilton and Russell go all-out in their attempts at getting on terms with Red Bull and Ferrari – and monitoring how they compare in that endeavour – is going to be probably the biggest intrigue of the remainder of the season.

* Wet qualifying of Imola, Montreal and Silverstone not counted. Hungary with Hamilton’s DRS failure not counted.
Russell quicker qualifier at Saudi, Spain, Monaco, Baku.
Hamilton faster qualifier at Bahrain, Australia, Miami, Austria, France.