2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

We don’t know how Red Bull and Max Verstappen might have chosen to run this title-decider race if McLaren had not split its tyre strategy: points leader and P2 qualifier Lando Norris on mediums (like those of polesitter Verstappen) and hards for Oscar Piastri. All three of them possible champions, of course, but Norris heavily favoured by the maths.

Piastri’s hards were an ambitious starting tyre in isolation – risking being slow off the grid and losing vital first lap places – but as a combined strategy in trying to win one of its drivers the title, it was perfect from McLaren’s perspective. It neutralised the risk that Verstappen — who needed to win and for Norris to be fourth or lower — might try to back Norris into the cars behind. So long as Piastri ran ahead of Norris, that is, allowing him to push Verstappen into running fast, while leaving Norris to give his mediums an easy time so as to minimise the risk of front-right graining.

The front three got through the first corner in grid formation, meaning the McLarens were the wrong way around for their strategic imperative. But Piastri put that right with a committed move around the outside of the fast Turn 9 on the opening lap. Norris knew exactly what the plan was and didn’t fight the move.