Still sandbagging? Why Mercedes F1 car may be even faster than we've seen

On the eve of the second race of the new F1 there’s a lot to ponder on. Not only how the formula looks around a Shanghai track very different in its energy demands from those of Albert Park last weekend, but also in the competitive pattern.

In Australia a small Mercedes W17 pace advantage, once Ferrari snapped the elastic Charles Leclerc was using to prevent George Russell pulling clear, was quite evident even if it was not as big as in qualifying. But forget for a moment Ferrari’s strategic goof and ponder how much of Merc’s real pace Russell and Kimi Antonelli were using once in clear air. Were they driving to a broad instruction of disguising the extent of their superiority? So as to minimise the chances of rival power unit manufacturers being measured at 3% or more behind, the threshold which will trigger them extra allowances under the ADUO (Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities) policy after six races?

Although the Shanghai track, with its multiple braking and low-speed acceleration zones and less time at full throttle should better suit Ferrari’s small turbo configuration, there is harvesting/deployment on the one hand and combustion power on the other to consider. This is the weekend we should find out if the variability of PU performance according to circuit layout is enough to swing the advantage from Mercedes to Ferrari or if we are merely looking at a smaller margin within the same hierarchy. Early signs at Shanghai are definitely the latter.

The Ferrari looks to have stronger cornering performance but there’s actually a downside to that in certain situations! The faster you are through the turns, the less time you are harvesting and the laps become even more energy-starved. The best way around this is to have a more powerful internal combustion engine and increasingly it’s looking like this is where the Mercedes PU advantage really is.

We should also be remembering that the Red Bull Powertrains unit was in very compromised form in the race at Melbourne, as attested by Max Verstappen’s complaints about constant glitches with deployment and a non-operating boost button. They are pretty fundamental problems to be carrying and it would be interesting to see where that PU stands given a clean run around a circuit less demanding of energy management. But that might not be as early as this weekend. That PU is still in a very early stage of refinement.

The maximum permitted energy store for Shanghai will be 9 megajoules rather than the 7 they were limited to in Australia and that too may have a significant impact upon PU performances.

McLaren’s deficit to the identically-engined Mercedes is obviously a hot topic. While attention has been focused on the flow of information from PU supplier to customer about how to fully exploit the PU — something which has become much more complex with such a powerful MGU-k and the demands that makes of the harvesting end of the car — how much significance should we attach to the fact that the McLaren is 10cm shorter in wheelbase? This direction was pursued by McLaren in order to have more ballast to play with and therefore a wider set-up window, but it also means there is physically less floor area with which to generate downforce and a likely higher drag level. The importance of each of those bleeds very much into harvesting and deployment efficiency. This weekend we should get more clues as to whether McLaren just needs a little more PU knowledge or if it has chosen a fundamentally unsuitable concept of car.

But perhaps the most exciting new factor suggested by Melbourne and anticipated keenly for China is that the second Red Bull seat looks to have – for the first time since Daniel Ricciardo was in it – a serious occupant in Isack Hadjar. His P3 qualifying position ahead of the Ferraris and McLarens just at the moment the team desperately needed it after Verstappen had crashed out of Q1 was momentous. With the pressure on, he was right there. Fast, pugnacious and bright but with the humility to acknowledge he can learn so much from Verstappen, he looks set to give Red Bull a consistent second prong to its challenge for the first time in years.

As ever, as we receive answers, so the questions become more refined.

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