F1 unlikely to seek replacements for Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs

Formula 1 is expected to reduce its calendar to 22 races rather than seek replacement venues should the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix be cancelled.

Imola and Portimao had emerged as the main candidates to host races should F1 ultimately decide to replace the two Gulf rounds, with both circuits holding valid FIA Grade 1 licences, recent grand prix experience and a strong desire to return to the calendar.

However, sources indicate that the current expectation within the paddock is that F1 would absorb the loss and trim the season rather than scramble for substitutes.

A joint American and Israeli military operation against Iran triggered a wave of retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, with missiles and drones targeting US military bases in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait.

The Juffair district of Manama – home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet base – was among the first targets, and it is an area that also plays host to many F1 personnel and media during visits to Bahrain.

While the broader human cost of the conflict dwarfs any sporting consideration, F1 now finds itself confronting serious questions about whether two of its races can safely go ahead.

The Bahrain Grand Prix, scheduled for 12 April, and the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, scheduled for 19 April, are both at risk, with the FIA and F1 management stressing they are “closely monitoring” the situation through the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

A two-day Pirelli tyre test at the Bahrain International Circuit – involving McLaren and Mercedes mule cars – was called off as military strikes began, with on-site personnel retreating to their hotels for shelter.

Meanwhile, a refinery belonging to Aston Martin title sponsor Aramco was ablaze after coming under fire from Iranian strikes, and the US embassy in Riyadh was also reported hit.

This is not the first time the region has disrupted F1’s calendar. The 2011 Bahrain Grand Prix was pulled from the calendar due to political unrest, and as recently as 2022, F1 seriously considered abandoning the Saudi Arabian GP after missile strikes were visible from the Jeddah circuit during practice.

This time, the scale of the conflict is considerably wider, and the window for decision-making is narrowing fast.

Crucially, a decision must be reached no later than the Japanese Grand Prix on 29 March, as freight shipments and team notifications require sufficient lead time. Should F1 want any chance of staging replacement races in April, it must make a call by mid-March at the latest.

The alternative – doing nothing – risks leaving a month-long gap in the calendar between Japan at the end of March and Miami on 1 May, with only three rounds completed. On current indications, that is the outcome F1 is quietly preparing for.

“It’s a very troubling time in the world in general, and it’s impossible for even the best political analysts to really predict,” Motor Sport’s Mark Hughes said in this week’s podcast.

“There are so many worrying ways in which it could go. And with Bahrain and Saudi at four and five, just a matter of weeks away, it is difficult to envisage that everything will be hunky-dory and safe passage for everyone by then.”

Hughes was equally direct about what that means for the races themselves.

“Those two races must be seriously at risk,” he said, adding that the situation carries echoes of the early stages of the 2020 COVID season, when events everyone knew would be cancelled were only formally confirmed as such at the last possible moment.

The reason, as Hughes explained, is financial and contractual: “It essentially has to be cancelled by the host so that Formula 1 can make a claim against not receiving the hosting fees. So that tends to complicate the timing of things when it seems obvious it’s going to be cancelled, but we might not see it officially confirmed for quite some time.”

That behind-the-scenes complexity means any replacement planning has to happen well before a public announcement. If F1 does opt to replace the races rather than absorb the loss, two circuits have already been put forward as the clear frontrunners.

Imola

Imola returned to the Formula 1 calendar in 2020 as part of the sport’s COVID-era reshuffle.

The circuit hosted the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix from 2020 to 2025, building a genuine fanbase in the process.

The 2022 edition in particular stood out: Max Verstappen won from pole in commanding fashion, but the midfield battles around the circuit’s tight chicanes and sweeping Piratella corner were absorbing throughout.

The circuit’s lack of run-off in key areas keeps drivers honest in a way that few modern venues can claim.

Imola was on the calendar in four of the last five years, missing only 2024 when it was cancelled due to flooding, before being dropped this year in favour of a return to Madrid for the Spanish Grand Prix.

The circuit holds an FIA Grade 1 licence and the local infrastructure, while compact, has proved capable of hosting grands prix at relatively short notice in the recent past. That experience makes it one of the more credible options if a quick turnaround is required.

Portimao

Portugal’s Algarve International Circuit made its Formula 1 debut in October 2020 and almost immediately generated some of F1’s most talked-about racing of the hybrid era.

The sweeping, undulating layout creates some natural overtaking opportunities and rewards bravery in a way that more conventional circuits rarely manage.

Portimao stepped in during the COVID-hit years of 2020 and 2021 and is already contracted to return to the calendar in 2027 and 2028.

The circuit, too, holds a valid FIA Grade 1 licence, and a short-notice slot would be a boon rather than a burden.