Why sidelining Liam Lawson in 2024 is a Red Bull vote of confidence

But, as befits a topsy-turvy season for the Kiwi, that decision actually looks to be a vote of confidence for Lawson, even though it initially appears to be an odd choice.

Red Bull has often been quick to promote explosive young talent: a 16-year-old Max Verstappen being its biggest success story, having been victorious on his Red Bull debut in 2016. Although Lawson was unable to do the same for its junior team AlphaTauri — ending a streak of winning on his first race weekend in every single seater category he has entered — the underperformance of the AT04 can likely take most of the blame.

It’s been considered a handful by any driver who steps foot in the cockpit, biting Ricciardo and Nyck de Vries hard during their first outings while Tsunoda has been able to keep his car on a tight leash — scoring 100% of the teams’ points before Lawson arrived in the garage next to him.

Ever since, the Kiwi has shaded his temporary team-mate at the end of every race weekend so far, in what Red Bull boss Christian Horner described as an “outstanding debut”.

Even at Suzuka, a circuit Tsunoda himself has driven “over 10,000 times” in front of an adoring home crowd, Lawson was once again the first AlphaTauri driver to reach the chequered flag — perhaps spurred on by the announcement of Tsunoda’s contract extension ahead of the race weekend.

A brilliant first lap duel showcased the talent of both drivers and it’s strange to think only one will be racing in F1 next season. There may be a method to the madness, though.

 

Step 1: Lawson secures future with Red Bull

Any doubts over Lawson’s ability in a F1 car have likely been dispelled following his stand-in performances. Not only has he outperformed Tsunoda consistently on race-day, but at just 21 years old, he is also a much larger future prospect than Ricciardo and Sergio Perez — both of whom are closer to the final years of their F1 careers. So Red Bull unsurprisingly has Lawson under contract beyond this year. With few other seats available for 2024, it was probably a straightforward decision for him to sign, despite the prospect of another year on the sidelines.

“I think Liam certainly turned heads and gave us plenty to think about, in particular following his Singapore drive,” said Red Bull team boss Christian Horner to Sky Sports. “He’s doing everything possible to justify a case for a full-time drive and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his opportunity.”

“He really is a man for the future,” added Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko on ServusTV. “He certainly had the speed, and he has shown that he is good enough for Formula 1.”

The comments all point to Lawson being lined up for a drive in 2025, which rumours suggest is guaranteed in his contract. Anything else could see him snapped up by another team ahead of a 2025 season for which at least half of current drivers don’t have a contract.

He’s also proved his worth as a stand-in: Ricciardo’s unlucky practice crash at Zandvoort showed the need for a reliable reserve.

So despite his lack of an F1 seat, Lawson’s future appears to be the most secure of all the Red Bull drivers, save Max Verstappen; his potential least in doubt. The question now turns to who might be his team-mate in 2025.

Step 2: Ricciardo vs Tsunoda

AlphaTauri will undergo a total rebrand in 2024, with development of its F1 car now under the watchful eye of Red Bull. Not only will the team also be renamed, but the addition of key personnel such as former Ferrari sporting director Laurent Mekies and CEO Peter Bayer will aim to push the Faenza-based squad back into the midfield fight — the perfect proving ground for two drivers whose future remains up in the air: Ricciardo and Tsunoda.

The performance of Lawson has cast doubts over the relative ability of both, but issues with the AT04 and Ricciardo’s injuries haven’t given Red Bull enough time to assess their merits. By extending both drivers’ contracts for 2024, Horner and Marko will have plenty of chances to pit the two against each other.

A weak performance from either could see one dropped for 2025, but strong pace from both could see them continue on the grid — alongside Lawson.

After Sergio Perez‘s underwhelming 2023, Ricciardo has been frequently identified as as a possible replacement in the Red Bull team. But in order for Christian Horner to justify seating him next to Verstappen, the Aussie would have to comfortably beat Tsunoda and take his car to the very limits of its performance on a consistent basis. It’s a target not so outrageous for the Ricciardo of old.

A promotion for Ricciardo would leave an open seat for Lawson, and he may not have to wait a whole year: Red Bull is no stranger to altering its line-up mid-season.

Tsunoda — still in the early stages of his career and widely considered a long-shot for a top Red Bull seat — could be set similar goals: remaining close to his team-mate’s performance (if not beating him) and consistently racing in point-scoring positions are likely to be enough to retain his seat. But if he regularly struggles, he may fall victim to the team’s cut-throat policy and make way for Lawson.

Of course, there is one final scenario, in which neither Ricciardo or Tsunoda performs well enough for Red Bull to take notice and Perez retains his front-row seat. In that case, Lawson could be joined at AlphaTauri by another Red Bull junior driver.

 

Step 3: AlphaTauri’s future to be reckoned with

In any scenario, it appears that Lawson’s future in motor sport’s top flight is not dependent on performance — just time. His stand-in drives are an indication to Red Bull that it could have another star on its hands in the years to come.

The team won’t want to wait too long, particularly having seen Oscar Piastri defect to McLaren for Alpine after being left on the sidelines. But by focusing on 2025, it looks to have given itself time to evaluate its drivers before pressing ahead with two extremely strong line-ups bursting with a brilliant blend of talent, experience and/or potential (depending on who sits beside Lawson).

So, while it may seem unfair to the Kiwi right now, Red Bull looks to be taking the long view, with the aim of securing its future dominance in the midfield and at the very front of the pack.