With innovative aero features on its car and engine improvements in the pipeline, Ferrari could end the year as Formula 1's strongest team, writes Mark Hughes. But unexpected regulation changes could strip away the advantages it has built
Ferrari – and all of F1 – is holding back its breath in anticipation of the first phase of the FIA’s ADUO engine equalisation process. Not only is it potentially transformative upon the competitive picture of this season, but it has far-reaching implications for the revised 60/40 PU regulations of 2027 (or ’28). It’s complicated, and it’s tied up in competitive politics – as per usual in F1.
There’s also likely to be a further regulatory change on the aero side for ’27 – one which potentially negatively impacts Ferrari – and that is playing its part in the power unit complications.
The five PU manufacturers were due to be informed of the post-Montreal ADUO analysis, and therefore, which of them would be entitled to extra upgrades, dyno time and spending on Monday of this week. But it’s clear that there has been some further discussion and it’s now expected that the outcome will be delayed for a few days, probably to post-Monaco Grand Prix.
Analysing how much of any performance deficit is due to the internal combustion engine – and that is all that ADUO seeks to assess – rather than the PU as a whole, is not straightforward. The electrical, aerodynamic and chassis mechanical contribution to lap time – and even that of the driver – need to be disregarded. Then there are the further complications arising from the use of an exhaust tail pipe blocker to aid rear wing performance. This changes the exhaust back pressure, one of the key metrics used in understanding the engine’s performance.
This is a technology Ferrari is at the vanguard of – and it configured its whole car, notably rear suspension and gearbox case length – around it in order to take full advantage. It’s a key part of what makes the Ferrari the fastest through the corners.
Ferrari is hoping to benefit from ADUO
Grand Prix Photo
You can see already how the PU and aero issues are intertwined. You might also see why Ferrari, in particular, is particularly vexed with a) an ADUO adjustment which potentially will not be carried into ’27 if F1 adopts the new 60/40 regulations and b) a banning of the exhaust-enhanced aero (or Flick Tail Mode, aka FTM).
Ferrari pulled the plug late on the power unit, which was originally going to be used this year. The current version of its ‘hot engine’, with steel cylinder heads rather than aluminium, was a short lead correction of the original and, as such, is in an early stage of its development relative to Mercedes or Red Bull. Ferrari hopes it will be allocated the two extra upgrades which would come with an assessment of its deficit to the lead engine being over 4%. In this way, it believes it could halve the current deficit with a planned Austria upgrade and achieve parity with the following upgrade (tentatively possible for Zandvoort).
Let’s just go with that for a moment. If Ferrari really has been 4% down on engine performance so far this season and has achieved what it has (it has averaged just under 0.5sec off Mercedes’ qualifying pace), then achieving engine parity absolutely suggests it would be at least as fast as the Mercedes, possibly faster. Which could have a dramatic effect on the shape of the championship fight. But if the 60/40 regs come in for ’27, requiring a complete PU redesign for everyone, then Ferrari is only going to get the full ADUO adjustment benefit for half a season. Hence, its preference for a ’28 introduction of 60/40.
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Mark Hughes
However, the whole reason FOM and the FIA want to introduce the 60/40 regulations (with more combustion power and less electrical) as soon as possible is to improve the authenticity of the racing and to address complaints that drivers are having to seriously back off in qualifying. So it’s for the good of the championship.
Furthermore, because the drag created by downforce consumes so much battery energy, the FIA plans to reduce downforce further into ’27 and one of the ways it is considering doing that is by banning the FTM-style exhausts.
So here potentially is a double whammy for Ferrari. It is currently looking at losing the benefit of its two big PU developments and losing its aero advantage too! It’s easy to see why it’s somewhat unhappy with how things are panning out as F1 attempts to improve the regulations. How altruistic can Ferrari afford to be?
Then factor in the political environment inside Ferrari and the dynamic between company boss John Elkann and team boss Frederic Vasseur and the pressure the latter is under to return Ferrari to the top, and you begin to get some idea of just what a knot everyone has got themselves into.
