Assen MotoGP: Japan’s rising son rules

Ai Ogura made history at Assen on Sunday – the first Japanese rider to win a MotoGP race aboard a motorcycle not built by Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki or Yamaha.

Japan’s rising son gave the land of the rising sun its 13th rider MotoGP victory, at the same time making more history, because he’s the first Japanese rider to be in the fight for the premier-class crown, just 25 points off the series lead as the 2026 championship nears half-distance.

And it seems to have happened out of nowhere. Ogura has always had the speed – remember his fifth place in his Thai debut last year? – but until very recently he’s struggled to get close enough to the front of the grid to be able to fight at the front of races.

Some MotoGP riders say that qualifying with today’s MotoGP bikes is 80% of the race, so if you qualify well you can fight up front and if you don’t, you won’t. Ogura’s results prove that theory.

Two weekends ago at Brno, the 25-year-old finally found the key to unlocking maximum performance in time attacks, from himself, his motorcycle and his tyres.

He took his first pole position at Brno and finished the race in second. At Assen, he qualified third and won the race. Until then, his average 2026 performance had been 10th in qualifying and fifth in races. So what’s changed?

“We have done nothing different – he has found it in himself,” said his mechanic Stewart Miller. “He made a step in Brno and I don’t think he will look back.”

Ominous words for Ogura’s rivals, who until now didn’t perceive him as a real threat. Because until he started qualifying at the front of the grid they knew that even his remarkable speed in the closing stages of races wouldn’t be enough.

Ogura’s ability to find speed at the end of the races is a factor of his riding technique. He is a joy to watch, if you’re the kind of fan who appreciates finesse over spectacle. Alongside his fellow Aprilia riders, he is the opposite of all-action Jorge Martin.

His subtle skills make him a friend of his tyres, so he doesn’t burn them up like so many other riders. That’s why he’s so strong as the chequered flag is being readied. At Assen, he came back from sixth on lap 2 and survived a scary moment when his ride-height device jammed to take the lead with seven laps to go. During those seven laps he built a two-second advantage – and he hardly looked like he was trying.

In that way, he is reminiscent of four-time MotoGP champ Eddie Lawson, who was nicknamed Steady Eddie because he was fast but looked slow. Google Translate tells me that antei means stable and secure in Japanese, so maybe we should call Ogura Antei Ai.

Ogura is the first Japanese to win a MotoGP race since Honda’s Makoto Tamada won at Rio de Janeiro and Motegi in 2004. And he’s only the seventh Japanese to win in the premier class, after Tamada, Tohru Ukawa, Norick Abe, Tady Okada, Takazumi Katayama and Hideo Kanaya, who started it all by winning the 1975 Austrian GP.

Ogura quietly remembered two other Japanese stars who might have joined that list when he climbed the podium at Assen. His leathers bear the numbers 74 and 48, in memory of Daijiro Kato (who died following a crash during the 2003 Japanese GP) and Shoya Tomizawa (killed during the 2010 San Marino Moto2 race).

It’s no surprise that Ogura’s off-track character matches his on-track character, because the two are of course very much linked. He is meek and polite to a fault, except when he’s sending it up the inside of a rival, but even then he does so with effortless grace.

“Nothing much to say,” he kept repeating when journalists asked, ‘How did you do that and how does it feel?’ after Sunday’s race.

Ogura’s first win makes it madly tight at the top of the championship. Most MotoGP title battles are straight duels, or sometimes three’s a crowd. This year there are six riders who are very much in with a shout. Just 55 points separate new leader Martin from team-mate Marco Bezzecchi, Fabio Di Giannantonio, Ogura, Marc Márquez and Raul Fernandez.

This is not normal. Over the last three years, since sprint races and sprint points were introduced, the top-six gap after 10 races stood at 121 points, 122 points and 120 points.

Bezzecchi lost the title lead for the first time when he crashed out at Assen, his third consecutive no-score, making a grim counterpoint to the maximum scores he took from this year’s first three Sundays.

Once again, the factory Aprilia rider got beaten up after starting from the front row and was in too much of a hurry trying to fight back from fourth place. He fell on lap 2 at the scarily fast Turn 15, while right behind Marc Márquez, already on the throttle, no doubt aiming to set up a pass at the chicane. He may also have lost some front downforce while in the Ducati’s draft. Martin said this had been an issue for him at Assen – the layout is so fast, and the higher the speed, the greater the aero cause and effect.

Can Bezzecchi regain his early-season form – four wins from the first seven races? There’s no reason why not, but he’s definitely put pressure on himself with his mistakes at Brno and Assen.

Meanwhile, Martin grows in strength. The 2024 champ started this season behind team-mate Bezzecchi, without the latest bike upgrades, because he had missed the first pre-season tests through injury. He didn’t have those updates until round four and he continues to insist he’s still getting used to the bike. If he’s telling the truth he’s only going to get faster.

There is no doubt that Aprilia’s RS-GP is currently MotoGP’s best motorcycle, especially at fast, flowing circuits, which have always been its greatest strength. The RS-GP turns like nothing else in MotoGP, primarily thanks to its chassis design and secondly thanks to its aerodynamics, created by ex-Ferrari Formula 1 aerodynamicist Marco De Luca.

It should be no great surprise that the RS-GP turns better than Ducati’s Desmosedici, because the Ducati has never turned that well. It makes its lap time on the way in and the way out of corners, while the Aprilia makes its lap time in the middle of corners. Of course, the differences are tiny, but Aprilia currently has a better balance than Ducati in those three cornering phases.

The advantage will probably sway this way and that between the two Italian manufacturers as MotoGP goes from one track to the next. It’s like Honda versus Yamaha back in the day. The Honda was better at stop-and-go tracks, the Yamaha at flowing tracks; which makes the Ducati today’s Honda and the Aprilia today’s Yamaha.

Ogura’s Trackhouse Aprilia team-mate Fernandez had beaten him by three-tenths to win the Assen sprint and briefly led on Sunday, until Ogura came scything past. A double one-two for Trackhouse Aprilia – no other independent team has ever had a weekend team like it. Impressive also for team principal Davide Brivio, who has now won MotoGP races with Yamaha, Suzuki and Aprilia.

Can Fernandez keep up this form? The former Moto2 runner-up has never shown much consistency in MotoGP and perhaps his current speed is a factor of him riding in job-hunting mode. If he can maintain his speed once he has a 2027 contract safely tucked away, then he will remain in the fight.

That’s the four Aprilia riders in the top six, the others are Ducati men Fabio Di Giannantonio and Márquez.

Di Giannantonio has awesome self-belief and the speed to go with it. And there’s definite tension simmering between the Italian and Márquez. Di Giannantonio’s double Assen attack on his factory Ducati rival will have been noted by Márquez, who will serve his revenge at his leisure. Remember last time – when Di Giannantonio pushed past Márquez at COTA – Márquez crashed a few corners later trying to get his own back.