MPH: The epic F1 title battle we're missing due to Red Bull's dominance

F1

Red Bull's current dominance is something to be admired - winning eight races from eight in 2023. But if it weren't on the grid, we would be watching a three-way fight for the title, as writes Mark Hughes

Ferrari Mercedes Aston

In a world without Red Bull, who would come out on top?

In this season of Verstappen dominance, the most intriguing competition is that between the three teams directly behind – Aston Martin, Mercedes and Ferrari – where the initiative has swung wildly from one race to the next.

The three cars have different strengths and weaknesses and the relative importance of them varies according to track layout and other circumstances. After eight races the patterns are by now pretty clear.

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It’s trite to say it would be a vintage three-team championship fight if Red Bull were not in it. Red Bull has arrived at a better understanding of the best aerodynamic solution to the ground effect regulations introduced last year and is taking the reward for that. Because F1 is also a competition of technology as well as one of driving, and it’s a sport, it’s wholly appropriate that Red Bull should be dominant. Verstappen, for his part, is in magnificent form in maximising what Red Bull has given him. The problem lies not with Red Bull but with the others.

That notwithstanding let’s, just for a bit of whimsical mischief, look at how the championship fight would be looking without Red Bull.

Verstappen Canada win 2023

Red Bull are currently the moment dominant F1 team around – but what if they weren’t?

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In Bahrain Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari, having set pole 0.3sec clear of the best non-Ferrari, was looking a likely winner, having eased away from team-mate Carlos Sainz in the early stages. Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin – the fastest non-Ferrari in qualifying – had made a bad start and fallen behind the two Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell. But, just as in qualifying, the Aston was clearly quicker. Problem was, it wasn’t very quick on the straights. He was past Russell easily enough but Hamilton was a tougher nut to crack and he had to get very creative, dummying a move at a very unconventional place. The Ferraris were still running 1-2, but Leclerc was over 12sec clear in the lead as Alonso chased down Sainz.

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There were 17 laps to go and the Leclerc victory looked assured, but the fight for second was building nicely. Then out of the blue, the leader’s power unit failed. Leclerc was out, leaving Sainz leading but being caught by up to half-a-second per lap by the Aston. Five laps after Leclerc’s retirement, Alonso put a superb on-the-limit out-braking move on the remaining Ferrari for victory. It was a thriller of a race.

In Saudi Arabia Alonso led away from pole. Although the Aston still lacked a little in straight-line speed, it more than made up for that with its downforce advantage over the Ferraris and Mercs through the fast sweeps of the first sector. The early laps saw Russell’s Merc in an Aston Martin sandwich, with Alonso easing away at the front, Lance Stroll nibbling at the Merc until suffering a power unit failure.

Hamilton, who’d started on the hard tyre, came on increasingly strong, passed Sainz for third and closed on team-mate Russell. Leclerc, who’d taken a grid penalty, got onto Sainz’s tail but no further. The Ferraris were abusing their tyres and couldn’t maintain the pace of the two Mercs ahead, which were even able to keep some pressure on Alonso. So much so that a 10sec penalty applied to Alonso for his car having been touched before a previous 5sec penalty was applied meant that Russell’s Mercedes was the official winner, even though the Aston was again first past the flag.

The Melbourne crash-fest, red flags and safety cars, saw a thrilling Hamilton-Alonso showdown, with Hamilton just holding off the Aston as the race was called. Pole-setting Russell had led the early going but retired with a PU failure. Three races, three different winners.

Saudi Arabia Mercedes Aston

With Red Bull out of the picture, a Hamilton vs Alonso battle ensues

Charles Leclerc’s stunning turn of speed around Baku saw him on a comfortable pole from Ferrari team-mate Sainz, the car’s supple slow corner response in the slow corners and decent straight-line speed enough to make them a formidable force here. Hamilton was leading the chase but got an unlucky break with the timing of the safety car, allowing Alonso and Russell to leapfrog past him. From there, Alonso passed Sainz and put the pressure on Leclerc for the win. Victory number one for Leclerc, Alonso just 0.8sec behind at the flag, Sainz a very distant third.

At Miami Leclerc twice spinning away a potential fastest lap left Alonso narrowly on pole from Sainz. It was this order in the early stages of the race too before Sainz’s tyres fell away. He was later passed by Russell, the Merc’s gentle tyre usage again proving a valuable asset. Victory number two for Alonso.

Charles Leclerc crashes during Q3 of 2023 Miami Grand Prix

Would Leclerc’s odd mistake take him out of a title hunt?

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Monaco was an Alonso masterclass, with a stunning pole position and a dominant victory on race day.

This track was perfectly configured for the Aston’s downforce advantage. It should have been good for Ferrari too, but its slow corner agility had seemingly deserted it with the stiff set-up Ferrari had opted for. Esteban Ocon was a great but distant runner-up for Alpine, having capitalised on a beautiful qualifying lap.

2023 F1 standings without Red Bull

With Red Bull out, Alonso would be on his way to a third world title, closely followed by career rival Lewis Hamilton

Sainz set pole on his home track of Barcelona but the Ferrari had already shown serious tyre deg issues in the practices and it was no surprise when first Hamilton then Russell surged past, utilising the Merc’s better usage of the tyres. Victory number two for Hamilton.

In Canada Alonso stuck the updated Aston on pole but was beaten off the line by Hamilton. The two staged an epic dice for the lead but in the end, the Aston’s superior traction out of the hairpin allowed Alonso to make the crucial DRS pass for victory. Victory number three for Alonso.

Three winning teams and four winning drivers in the first eight races, with Alonso in a narrow championship lead but everything still up for grabs.

Ok, back to reality.