Carlos Sainz

Lewis Hamilton’s shock move to Ferrari has thrown a real curveball at Carlos Sainz. The Spaniard has done a very good job at Ferrari and while he may not have the ultimate speed of Charles Leclerc, he delivered strong races and consistently intelligent drives including that superb win in Singapore.

There’s no shame in losing your seat to the most successful driver in F1 history but this has suddenly ramped up the pressure on Sainz to have a strong 2024. Mercedes needs to be careful about its future plans and therefore I don’t believe it will rush into a decision. Many have linked Sainz to Audi for 2026 because of his father’s ties with the German giant but I think that will be a mistake for Carlos Jr. Audi will take some time to get its act together to become a top team and Carlos needs to capitalise on his recent experience with a top team.

A move to Mercedes alongside George Russell for a couple of years while Toto Wolff waits to see the full potential of Kimi Antonelli seems like a good option all round. Going to Red Bull Racing as a number two to Max may be less appealing but still better than going to a midfield team. McLaren is locked up so Aston could be another option.

If Sainz can block out the noise and have a good 2024, Wolff, Christian Horner or Mike Krack will be on the phone by the summer offering a seat. A huge mental challenge awaits the Spaniard.

 

Sergio Pérez

Being team-mate to Max Verstappen is a poisoned chalice. It means that you’re likely to be in one of the best cars on the grid, but you’re also up against a once-in-a-generation talent who is at the absolute height of his powers and confidence.

Sergio started the 2023 season well but really when you do a deep dive into the 22 race weekends, it was only in Baku that he truly outpaced Max. In reality, the team doesn’t need him to beat Max, especially last year when the Dutchman could have won the constructors’ championship by himself. If Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren get their acts together though, it may not be as comfortable for Red Bull Racing and all of a sudden they will need to rely on ‘Checo’ to rack up the points.

Qualifying was a real bugbear last season and he ended up with just one top-four start in the last 17 grands prix. With Daniel Ricciardo rediscovering his mojo and loitering with intent, Carlos Sainz now in the market for a new team and even Liam Lawson staking his claim with some strong drives, Pérez will need a good year to hold on to that Red Bull Racing seat.

 

Yuki Tsunoda

Amid all the hype around Nyck de Vries, Liam Lawson and Daniel Ricciardo in the other cockpit, Yuki Tsunoda spent 2023 making good progress as a Formula 1 driver. Sure, his Honda connection has put him in that position but with the Japanese giant soon to be heading off to Aston Martin, its influence over the RB team will be waning.

This is therefore a crucial year for Yuki to show that he deserves that seat on merit. There were some superb drives last year like in Abu Dhabi but there were also errors such as Mexico and Brazil which cost points.

There’s no doubt that Tsunoda has the speed but that isn’t enough. He’s got to find a way to add consistency and calmness in order to become the complete package. Last year he showed up well against Ricciardo although his record against the rookie Lawson was less impressive. If Tsunoda wants to keep himself on the grid, he’s got a golden opportunity to go up against Ricciardo and establish his long-term credentials.

 

Oscar Piastri

As a rookie in F1 alongside a highly rated star, Oscar Piastri had an excellent season last term. There were some real highs, so much so that I’d say that the high points were an equal to those seen from Hamilton, Verstappen or Charles Leclerc in their debut seasons.

Piastri’s qualifying form in the second half of the year was superb, with the lap he did in Suzuka being a particular highlight. To land on the front row on his first ever visit to what is now the ultimate driver’s track was a real statement. His victory at the Qatar sprint race was a smart and calculated performance where the young Aussie made sure that he had enough tyres to fight and hold off a charging Verstappen at the end.

His weakness seemed to be race pace and there were several occasions including in Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi at the end of the year where the rookie couldn’t match Lando’s pace in the other McLaren. Managing the Pirelli tyres is notoriously difficult and he was cut some slack last year as it was his first long run at several tracks. That grace period won’t carry on into 2024. If Oscar can raise his game aw~on Sundays this could become the year where he could take over as the number one in a revitalised McLaren team.

 

Alex Albon

After being burned in his time at Red Bull Racing alongside Max Verstappen, Albon appears to have found a new lease of life at Williams. As a driver and character who is perhaps more introverted and gentle than anyone else outside the car, he has shown a tenacity and an intellect behind the wheel.

In an unprecedented year with no movement in the 2024 driver market, this will be a vital year for Albon to show that he shouldn’t have been disregarded by the top teams quite so quickly. The hardest thing to judge about Albon has been the lack of an established benchmark in the other car with neither Nicholas Latifi nor Logan Sargeant being clear references for the paddock to judge him.

That’s not Alex’s fault of course and his seven Q3 appearances last season combined with the superb tyre management at races like Canada underlined his value.

As I write this, 13 out of the 20 drivers have their contracts expiring at the end of this year and Albon will be keen to remind the paddock of his star potential.