Can Red Bull be beaten to F1 title in 2024? Why history suggests not

But, as the examples from F1’s past suggest below, so do Red Bull’s chances of maintaining its advantage when new regulations are introduced in 2026. Rarely does a team maintain an edge when new rules shake up the series — sometimes with the uncanny effect of neutering the leading team’s specific strength.

Red Bull faces a particularly tough challenge in 2026 as it adapts to new technical regulations that are likely to include smaller cars, while also developing its very first in-house engine. Having experienced first-hand a decade ago how a below-par engine can destroy years of success, it will be approaching the new F1 era with caution.

On the other hand, it does have Adrian Newey at the drawing board. Unequalled in his ability to spot the opportunities in a new rulebook, he’s been behind many of the cars that have dominated the past three decades. If anyone can buck the trend, it’s him — so don’t rule out another seven years, at least, of Red Bull success.

The teams that dominated modern F1

Williams
1992-1993

The Red Bull of the early 1990s, Williams had what looked to be an unassailable advantage thanks to the active suspension underpinning its Adrian Newey-designed car. Perfecting the continuously-adjusting hydraulics that maintained a constant ride height — for optimising aerodynamic performance — took the 1991 season, during which Williams still won the constructors’ championship and Nigel Mansell gave Senna a run for the title.

The investment really paid off in 1992. Mansell swept to the championship, winning the first five races, on his way to nine victories from 16 grands prix. As others scrambled to catch up, so drivers hotfooted it to Frank Williams’ door. Both Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost were lobbying for a 1993 seat, but the Frenchman won — with a clause that prevented Senna from becoming his team-mate.

Williams once again prevailed, despite Senna’s valiant efforts, but the technology takeover was at an end. In the face of increasing speeds and reduced reliance on the driver, electronic aids were banned, consigning active suspension, along with anti-lock brakes, traction control and launch control to the scrapheap.

The result, in 1994, was that average lap times climbed by more than four seconds as a result. Williams lost its advantage and faced an up-and-coming Michael Schumacher in a speedy Benetton.

Williams would go on to win that year’s constructors’ title, and would regain its superiority later that decade, but Senna, having finally secured a seat with the team, was killed in a crash at Imola just three races into the new campaign.

Ferrari
2000-2005

Michael Schumacher left Benetton in 1995 after a second consecutive world championship to join the monumental effort of rebuilding Ferrari. Alongside team boss Jean Todt and technical director Ross Brawn, they succeeded where so many before them had failed — but only after years of near-misses, controversial collisions and a broken leg for Schumacher at Silverstone.

The 1999 season brought a constructors’ title, despite Schumacher missing six grands prix due to his leg injury, and then came the run of victories. Ferrari and Schumacher clinched every F1 title between 2000 and 2004 in what was then a period of unprecedented dominance.

Once again, it was ended when a decisive advantage was removed: a last-minute decision ahead of the 2005 season banned tyre changes during races (except for in case of punctures). It badly hampered the The Maranello team which had worked in tandem with Bridgestone, which developed tyres that were tailored to Ferrari.

They wore quickly but were extremely fast — especially when bolted to Michael Schumacher‘s car. The German was no stranger to pitting more often than his rivals — who all ran the slower but more durable Michelin tyre — in order to counter any excessive tyre wear but he still managed to secure 48 race victories and five consecutive drivers’ world titles between 2000-2004.

But the implementation of the no pit-stop rule scuppered Ferrari’s strategy. As a result both Schumacher and team-mate Rubens Barrichello struggled in 2005, winning just one race and finishing a distant third in the constructors’ standings while the Michelin-running Renault captured both titles.

Red Bull
2010-2013

Red Bull and Adrian Newey’s first period of dominance came after new 2009 rules introduced lower and wider front wings, higher and narrower rear wings and diffusers mounted further back. It was the Brawn team that got it right immediately, and built an unassailable lead. But Red Bull’s trio of wins in the final races of that season pointed to its impending success.

In 2010, the Newey-designed RB6 integrated a double diffuser (a feature which had allowed Brawn to dominate the previous year) with a blown exhaust — a system which could create more downforce at the rear of the car by redirecting jets of airflow.

While many teams mounted their exhaust tailpipes within the diffuser — putting a greater burden on driver who had to control the amount of downforce available through different throttle inputs — Red Bull had its tailpipes lower, blowing air onto the diffuser from above which ‘sealed’ the edges’, maintaining a concentrated airflow at the diffuser exit to increase downforce.

Although there were challenges from McLaren and Ferrari, the team won every drivers’ and constructors’ championship from 2010 to 2013, with 13 wins from 19 races in the final season. But that established advantage wouldn’t continue in the new hybrid era. While Newey was on hand to work his aerodynamic magic with the new 2014 rulebook, the cars would all-too-often be trailing a cloud of white smoke from the hopeless new-spec Renault engines.

Mercedes
2014-2021

Preceding the superiority of Max Verstappen and Red Bull, Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes were the undisputed kings of the hybrid era — securing 8 constructors’ titles and 7 drivers’ titles from 2014 to 2021.

Much like the Milton Keynes marque, the key to Mercedes’ dominance was a fast start following the biggest set of regulations changes the series had ever seen — up to that point at least. In order to revitalise its sustainability efforts, F1 chose to switch from naturally aspirated V8s to turbocharged V6 hybrid engines and implemented the use of a new Energy Recovery System (ERS).

Mercedes invested heavily in developing its power unit prior to the change and had a massive advantage when the new era of cars hit the track for the first time in Melbourne. Hamilton — who had joined from McLaren the year before — took pole position by three-tenths of a second and team-mate Nico Rosberg won the race 25 seconds clear of the trailing field.

Mercedes was then able to build on its head-start in the years to come, and won 110 races out of the next 159 — four times as many as the next best team during the same period (27).

A change to the regulations for the 2021 season, in a bid to reduce downforce and slow cars down, had a disproportionate effect on Mercedes, but the team remianed competitive. It won that season’s constructors’ title but Red Bull’s performance was on a par and the drivers’ title went down to the wire. It was decided, famously, in Abu Dhabi.

Team’s performance in final year of dominance vs under new regulations