Will race ban threat affect Verstappen? - What to watch out for at the Canadian GP

The Formula 1 circus heads to Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix, where the spotlight is on Max Verstappen, under pressure after a tough Spanish GP and just one penalty point from a race ban.

It will also write another chapter in McLaren‘s championship rivalry between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, while Lewis Hamilton returns to one of his favourite circuits seeking his first Ferrari grand prix podium.

In the midfield, Williams hopes to rebound after a difficult weekend, and Sauber looks to build on recent momentum.

Canada has seen its fair share of explosive storylines. Here are the ones to watch for this weekend.

Will Verstappen tread carefully?

His Spanish GP penalty and the associated three penalty points leave Verstappen just one point away from a race ban going into the Canadian Grand Prix. To make matters worse for the world champion, he will face the same threat in the following race in Austria, as none of his points will expire until after June.

Verstappen’s situation means he will need to tread carefully during the Montreal weekend, and not just during the race, as a single incident in any other session could make him the second driver after Kevin Magnussen to have fall victim to the penalty points system introduced in 2014: any driver accruing 12 points in total receives a race ban.

Verstappen used social media the day after the race to say the accident with George Russell in Barcelona “was not right and shouldn’t have happened”. It wasn’t much of an apology, but it at least showed some remorse about an incident which, as the Red Bull driver said, should not have occurred.

 

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The question, however, is how Verstappen will respond on track this weekend, particularly if, like in Spain, he finds himself in a competitive position against a frontrunning McLaren.

Verstappen is not a driver to often change how he approaches a weekend or how he races, although he hasn’t faced the possibility of a ban before.

But right now Verstappen is almost an outsider in the title fight, having left Spain 49 points behind Oscar Piastri in the standings, and so he will not want to lose any more ground in Montreal, even with the shadow of a race ban hanging over him.

Has the flexi-wing saga ended?

Despite all the talk and hype about the supposed changes the new flexi-wing clampdown would produce, the Spanish GP showed that the effect was negligible.

Drivers struggled with handling and it was slightly more difficult to nail the balance, but overall not much changed and, most significantly, the competitive order didn’t appear to be affected, at least not at the front.

Could it be different in Canada? The Gilles Villeneuve circuit features long straights and heavy braking zones that put a premium on straight-line speed and low drag, where the effect of stiffer wings could be more noticeable.

Flexible wings would offer a bigger advantage on tracks like Montreal, where reducing drag on the straights is crucial, so the impact of the clampdown could be greater. Then again, teams have said that they won’t be affected.

Can Hamilton find hope?

There is no doubt that Lewis Hamilton is going through one of the roughest patches of his Formula 1 career, and even he admitted the Spanish Grand Prix had been the “worst weekend ever” for him.

Unfortunately for Hamilton, bad weekends have been something of a trend since he joined Ferrari at the start of 2025, and the seven-time world champion didn’t sound confident that he will be able to turn a corner anytime soon.

It’s not like Ferrari is particularly competitive at the moment, but Hamilton appears to be lost and his sombre mood week in and week out is notable.

Montreal is a circuit where Hamilton has always done fantastically well: he’s won seven times, including in his rookie year, and has been on pole six times, so if there’s a venue where the Ferrari driver should be able to turn things around, it should be Canada.

Having said that, Hamilton labelled last year’s Montreal race as one of the worst of his career after finishing fourth, so it remains to be seen if one of his luck has run out in Canada.

Who will lead the midfield battle?

While the clampdown on flexi-wings didn’t change much at the front, Sauber benefited from a big upgrade package and a flawless execution of the race to finish in fifth and lift itself from the bottom of the standings in the process.

Nico Hülkenberg gave the team its best result since the 2022 season, making Sauber the unlikely new midfield leader, having mainly run at the bottom of the field since the start of the season.

In contrast Williams, which has led the mid-pack for most of the year, had its least competitive weekend of 2025 as its weaknesses were exposed by the long, high-speed nature of the Barcelona circuit’s corners.

Granted, Williams’ chances were hurt by the front wing damage suffered by both of its drivers, but even taking that into account, the Grove team looked on the back foot.

Racing Bulls, Alpine and Aston Martin all scored points in Spain, with Haas joining Williams in being the only other team which left Barcelona point-less.

So, going into Canada, the midfield fight remains as intriguing as it is unpredictable given the Spanish GP overhaul.

How will Mercedes do after a disastrous triple-header?

Mercedes endured a miserable Imola-Monaco-Barcelona run, dropping behind Ferrari in the standings and losing ground to Red Bull, having scored just 18 points across the three weekends.

Kimi Antonelli failed to score in all three races, and Russell’s fourth-place finish in Spain was the team’s best result, leaving Mercedes six points behind Ferrari despite having led the Scuderia by 47 after the Miami GP.

Mercedes’ disastrous triple-header was the result of a combination of factors, but its uncompetitive situation was, to a great extent, down to its struggles with higher track temperatures.

With that in mind, the cooler Montreal circuit should play to Mercedes’ strengths. Its record there, and the upgrades it’s bringing, should make the German squad optimistic that it can put the triple-header behind.