Losail's traps that lie between Verstappen and 3rd F1 title: Qatar GP preview

But there is a shadow of doubt at the newly resurfaced circuit, which has the potential to cause unexpected problems for the field, including this year’s constructors’ champions. Teams have limited data on how their cars and tyres will react to the surface and just a single practice session to spot the potential pitfalls before they are straight in to the competitive bits of the sprint weekend.

As recent races have shown, there are is a hungry chasing pack that’s straining to inch closer to Red Bull at each round.

Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Aston Martin have all had drivers on the podium this year, and the four teams remain locked in battle for the constructors’ championship places. Among them, Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz also remain within reach of Sergio Perez for second in the drivers’ championship.

With so many flashpoints throughout the field, it could be hard to keep track come race day. But here are the main ones you need to watch out for:

 

How can Max Verstappen win the drivers’ world championship in Qatar?

Thirteen wins and counting for Max Verstappen in 2023 has allowed him to lead his second title defence from the start — team-mate Sergio Perez is the only remaining driver with a mathematical chance of catching him.

But, after an unorthodox double retirement from Perez in Japan, the reigning champion now leads the title race by 177 points, with a maximum of 180 points available at the last six grands prix. In order for Verstappen to seal his third drivers’ title in Qatar, he needs just three points — sixth place in Saturday’s sprint race or, if he fails to score there, eighth during Sunday’s grand prix would do the trick.

Verstappen’s third title has become more of an inevitability as the season has gone on, with 10 consecutive victories between Miami and Monza providing an historical highlight. But even with both titles (almost) wrapped up and six races remaining, the Dutchman is still motivated to keep Red Bull’s dominant streak alive.

“It’s a pretty select club he’ll enter when he wins his third world title,” said team boss Christian Horner. “I know he’s proud of what he’s doing and achieving, but he’s forward-looking. He’s not rearward looking and I think that for him it’s about the next race. There are still six races to go this year and I know he’s motivated to try and win all of them.”

Of course, Verstappen already owns F1’s single-season win record, scoring 15 grand prix victories across the season in 2022. Winning in Qatar and the US will allow him to set a new standard in Mexico City — but will the first-places stop there?

 

Could Qatar’s new look cause new problems for the 2023 field?

Ahead of F1’s return to Qatar in 2023, the Losail International Circuit has been totally resurfaced with the addition of modified kerbs to avoid a repeat of the puncture-filled chaos that plagued the race in 2021. Valtteri Bottas, George Russell and Nicholas Latifi all fell victim to the raised edge markers. But its mixture of high and medium-speed corners could still be “very challenging” for teams who struggle with higher levels of tyre degradation — such as Ferrari.

“On paper, the track’s main features remain the same – with a main straight just over a kilometre long and 16 corners,” said Mario Isola, Pirelli’s head of motor sport. “But it’s clear that the changes made over the last two years mean that the data collected from the first grand prix is only relatively useful.”

In the dying moments of 2021’s visit to Qatar, several drivers were having to manage critically degraded tyres while staying clear of any kerbs — Fernando Alonso having to limp home to a podium finish. A similar challenge could be presented to the field in 2023.

“In terms of severity, Losail is a very challenging circuit for tyres, similar to Silverstone and Suzuka.” added Isola. “The series of corners between Turns 12 and 14 is quite reminiscent of the famous Turn 8 at Istanbul: one of the most demanding corners for tyres in the recent history of Formula 1. This sequence is also one of the most influential factors to a good lap time.”

One issue is that teams may struggle to predict degradation levels. With just a single FP1 session before two qualifying rounds and two races, teams will have minimal opportunity to optimise their set-ups and analyse tyre wear over long runs. As we saw in Singapore, even Red Bull can find itself with the wrong set-up, and there’s so little opportunity to change direction this weekend.

In addition, the practice session is being held in the late afternoon heat of Friday, whereas Grand Prix qualifying and both races will take place in the cooler conditions of the evening, which limits the usefulness of the data and could bring unseen challenges. Qatar may be one of the most demanding circuits we’ve seen so far.

 

Ricciardo’s return — delayed 

Despite targeting Qatar as a possible site for his return, Daniel Ricciardo will miss a fifth grand prix for AlphaTauri after breaking his hand during a FP1 crash in Zandvoort. Described as a “complicated fracture” by Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko, the Aussie has been ruled out of racing action at least until the paddock arrives in COTA, with Liam Lawson set to continue his stand-in duties.

As part of his recovery, Ricciardo had been involved in several simulator sessions, but was not yet “at 100%” according to Motor Sport F1 correspondent Chris Medland.

If he’d attempted to drive and found that he wasn’t up to it after the first practice session, it would have seriously hampered AlphaTauri’s race weekend on such a new and challenging circuit. With only one practice session during the weekend, missing it  would have hurt Lawson’s chances of continuing his streak of outstanding performances.

Although he will remain a reserve driver in 2024, his continued success hasn’t been ignored by the Red Bull camp, and he looks likely to be a shoo-in for 2025. In the meantime, another solid performance in Qatar — a track on which he’s never raced before — could put increasing pressure on Ricciardo when he eventually returns.

“My goal is to be in F1 full-time,” said Lawson. “Right now, I’ve still got the opportunity to try and show something, and I’ll try to make the most of it.”

 

Mercedes vs Ferrari: battle of the rest

After Red Bull wrapped up its sixth constructors’ title in convincing fashion in Japan, the fight for second place has arguably become the headline act for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. Ferrari — the only constructor other than Red Bull to have won a race in 2023 — currently trails Mercedes by just 20 points heading into Qatar, but each side has had its setbacks.

Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz have led the way for their respective teams — occupying third and fifth in the drivers’ standings — but their team-mates, George Russell and Charles Leclerc, have struggled to grasp the 2023 season. The former suffered a dramatic last-lap crash in Singapore while chasing the lead, and the latter has arguably underperformed when compared to his title-challenge last year.

Since returning from the summer break, Mercedes has arguably been on the back foot: Sainz snatched pole and a race win in Marina Bay. But the advantage could swing back at Losail. Hamilton has shown he can win in Qatar and his team has a better handle on tyre degradation and strategy.

If it provides any indication, Ferrari’s last performance in Qatar was underwhelming — qualifying in seventh and thirteenth before recovering to seventh and eighth on race day in 2021. Although the lack of pace from Leclerc was blamed on a cracked chassis, the Scuderia was still far from podium contention and a similar result in 2023 could prove decisive in securing the constructors’ runner-up spot.